The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored at home on Monday afternoon as they host the Washington Nationals in Game 3 of the NLDS on MLB Network. The Dodgers took the first game in Washington but the Nationals bounced back on Sunday to even up the series. The best-of-five series now shifts to Los Angeles where the Dodgers went 53-28 during the regular season. The probable pitching matchup for Monday has Gio Gonzalez going for the Nationals while the Dodgers send Kenta Maeda. Let’s look at the contest and MLB free picks.
Los Angeles Dodgers -150, total 7.5 over
Probable Pitching Matchup – Gonzalez vs. Maeda
Gio Gonzalez went 11-11 this season with a 4.57 ERA. He did not pitch well down the stretch allowing 12 runs and 22 hits in his last three starts but he does have a 3.21 ERA in his career against the Dodgers.
Maeda was 16-11 this season with a 3.48 ERA. He did struggle in his regular season finale giving up five runs in just 2.2 innings against the Giants.
The interesting part about this matchup is how much the Dodgers struggle against left-handed pitchers. The Dodgers faced left-handers 46 times this season and batted just .235. If you include at-bats against left-handed relievers, the Dodgers hit just .213. The only player to hit better against left-handers rather than right-handers was Yasiel Puig.
Washington was a good road team during the regular season going 45-36 away from home with 36 going over, 41 going under with 4 pushes. Washington is scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 3.5 per contest.
The Dodgers as noted earlier were 53-28 at home with 30 going over and 51 going under the total. Los Angeles is scoring about 4.5 runs per game and giving up 3.7 per contest.
The Nationals are 14-37 in the last 51 meetings in Los Angeles. The Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 Game 3’s of a series. The Nationals are 1-6 in Gonzalez’s last 7 road starts.
The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Dodgers are 44-16 in their last 60 home games. The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff home games. The Dodgers are 6-0 in Maeda’s last 6 home starts.
The Under is 12-5 in the Nationals last 17 road games. The Under is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts vs. the National League West. The Under is 19-7 in the Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is 5-0 in Maeda’s last 5 home starts. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
MLB Free Picks
The Dodgers have a big pitching edge in this game as Maeda has been far better than Gonzalez this season so I will lay the price and take the Dodgers on Monday and also play the game under the total.