The Chicago Cubs host the San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of the NLDS on Saturday night on MLB Network. The Giants will be starting either Jeff Samardzija or Matt Moore while the Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are expected to be listed as nearly 2-1 favorites with Hendricks on the mound. Let’s look at the contest and MLB picks.
Probable Pitching Matchup – Samardzija or Moore vs. Hendricks
San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy hadn’t decided whether he will go with Samardzija or Moore for Game 2. Whichever player doesn’t get the start could be available in the bullpen because neither of them is going to start in Game 3 on Monday as that honor goes Madison Bumgarner.
Samardzija was 12-11 this season with a 3.81 ERA. He lasted only four innings against the Cubs back in early September and allowed three runs. Samardzija had a 3.53 ERA at home compared to a 4.03 ERA on the road. Moore was 13-12 this season with a 4.08 ERA. Moore did not pitch against the Cubs this season.
Hendricks went 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA this season. His 2.13 ERA was the best in the Major Leagues. He was excellent at home going 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA. Manager Joe Maddon said that going with Lester and Hendricks at home made sense in Games 1 and 2 while sending Jake Arrieta on the road in Game 3. "A lot of it is based on recent productivity and the fact that Jon's just nailed it and Kyle has nailed it," Maddon said. "They've also been good at home, where Jake has also been good on the road. It kind of morphed into that the last couple of weeks."
The Giants were 42-39 on the road during the regular season while the Cubs had the best home mark in the league at 57-24. The Giants were a good team to bet under the total on the road with 45 games going under and just 33 going over with 3 pushes. Chicago was a good team to bet under the total at home going under 47 times with just 31 games going over with 3 pushes.
The Giants are 1-7 in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Giants are 19-7 in their last 26 playoff road games. The Giants are 4-10 in Samardzija’s last 14 starts.
The Cubs are 38-12 in their last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. the National League West. The Cubs are 0-6 in their last 6 Saturday games. The Cubs are 25-10 in Hendricks' last 35 home starts.
The Over is 6-2 in the Giants last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 12-5 in the Giants last 17 road games. The Under is 11-1-1 in Samardzija’s last 13 starts overall. The Over is 6-1 in the Cubs last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 41-19-2 in the Cubs last 62 home games. The Under is 5-1 in Hendricks' last 6 home starts.
I will lay the price and take the Cubs to get the home win.