Game 1 of the ALDS between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians takes place on Thursday Friday night on TBS with the Red Sox listed as road favorites. Boston is expected to send 22-game winner Rick Porcello to the mound while the Indians counter with Trevor Bauer. Let’s look at the matchup and MLB picks.
ALDS Game 1 Odds
Boston Red Sox -145, total 8.5
Probable Pitching Matchup – Porcello vs. Bauer
Porcello is 22-4 on the season with a 3.15 ERA. He is one of the top contenders to win the AL Cy Young Award along with Baltimore’s Zach Britton. Porcello is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts and since the All-Star break he has a 2.62 ERA. He made just one start this season against Cleveland and allowed two runs in 5.2 innings. He has done well in his career on the road at Progressive Field with a 5-3 record and a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts.
Bauer is 12-8 on the season with a 4.26 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA in his last three starts. He did not pitch well against Boston this season with a 12.91 ERA in 7.2 innings. The Indians would have liked to have started Corey Kluber in Game 1 but he is still coming back from a quad injury and will go on Friday in Game 2. “He'll throw an extended side on Tuesday, which will line him up for Friday,'' manager Terry Francona said. ''Klub really wanted to pitch Thursday. We've been talking about it for three or four days, but I just kind of overruled him.”
Boston was a good road team this season going 46-35 away from home with 35 going over the total, 43 going under the total with 3 pushes. Boston is scoring 5.4 runs per game while giving up 4 runs per contest.
Cleveland was a good home team this season as they went 53-28 at Progressive Field. The Indians went over 47 times at home while going under 31 times with 3 pushes. Cleveland is scoring 4.8 runs per game while allowing 3.8 per contest.
The teams have split their last ten meetings with three of the last four going under the total. Boston won the season series 4-2. This has been a home team series with Cleveland taking 7 of the last 10 at home. Four of the last seven have gone over the total.
The Red Sox scored 878 runs this season, 101 more than any other American League team. Boston had a .282 batting average, .348 on-base percentage and a .461 slugging percentage.
The Red Sox have a big pitching edge with Porcello against Bauer so I will lay the price and take Boston. These two teams should put up a lot of runs so I will also play the game over the total.