The Toronto Blue Jays are favored at home on Thursday night as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the finale of a three-game series. The Blue Jays are in a strong position in terms of making the playoffs as the first Wild Card in the American League while the Orioles are fighting to hold off Detroit and Seattle for the second spot.  The Orioles will be sending Ubaldo Jimenez to the mound in this game while the Blue Jays send Marcus Stroman.

Let’s look at the contest and MLB picks.

Probable Pitching Matchup – Jimenez vs. Stroman

Jimenez has poor overall numbers on the season as he is 7-12 with a 5.71 ERA but he has pitched well of late. He is 1-1 in his last three starts with a 2.79 ERA. He pitched 5.1 innings against Boston last week and allowed two runs on four hits. Jimenez had a 7.38 ERA in 17 starts before the All-Star break but since the break he has a 3.50 ERA.

Stroman is 9-9 on the season with a 4.34 ERA. He has been really good lately but doesn’t have a win to show for his efforts as he is 0-2 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts. He is winless in his last five starts but his ERA is 3.00. He went seven scoreless innings last time out in a no-decision against the Yankees.

Game Notes

The Orioles were 35-41 in their first 76 road games with 39 of those games going over and 37 going under. The Orioles are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.3 per contest.

The Blue Jays were 46-33 in their first 79 home games with 36 going over, 40 going under with 3 pushes. Toronto is scoring 4.7 runs per game and allowing 3.8 per contest.

Game Trends

The Orioles are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The 
Orioles are 2-5 in their last 7 Thursday games. The Orioles are 4-1 in Jimenez’s last 5 starts. They are 3-9 in Jimenez’s last 12 road starts. The Orioles are 4-1 in Jimenez’s last 5 starts vs. the Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 Thursday games. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in Stroman’s last 6 home starts. The Blue Jays are 1-6 in Stroman’s last 7 starts vs. the American League East.

The Under is 4-1 in the Orioles last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Over is 7-2 in Jimenez’s last 9 road starts. The Under is 8-2 in the Blue Jays last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Under is 4-0 in Stroman’s last 4 starts overall.

MLB Picks

Even though Jimenez has been good lately it is still hard to trust him to win a big game so I will take the Blue Jays in this contest.