Matt Garza (5-12, 5.17 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (46-63) go up against Odrisamer Despaigne (5-7, 4.75 ERA) and the San Diego Padres (52-56) in the last of a four-game series at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 8-5 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-1. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 6 and will air on FSSD.
In his most recent outing, Garza pitched 6.0 innings, giving up three runs, striking out five and walking four in a 4-2 loss to the Cubs. Ryan Braun (.273, 64 Rs, 19 HRs, 63 RBIs, 16 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. The Padres were victorious the last time Despaigne pitched. He tossed 6.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out five and walking one in a 5-3 victory over the Marlins. Justin Upton (.249, 54 Rs, 18 HRs, 57 RBIs, 17 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Padres, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Milwaukee is a small -115 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Brewers have an 18-24 record and overall money line at -1,748. They are 1-3 as the favorite over their last 10 games. The Brewers come into the game with the NL's fifth-ranked home scoring offense, averaging 4.1 runs per game in their own ballpark. As for the pitching staff, they have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out at Miller Park, averaging 8.5 strikeouts per home game.
Moving on to the away team, the Padres come into this game with a win percentage of .426 when playing as the underdog (26-35) and an overall money line of -268. San Diego has been playing better lately, averaging 5.0 runs per game, more than their season average of 3.9.
In their previous three games this season, the Brewers have a 2-1 record. This game will feature Despaigne (RHP) on the mound against the Brewers, who have a 32-52 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Garza will take the mound against the Padres, who have a 40-45 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - SD, O/U - Over
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games.
San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Diego's last 14 games when playing Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee.
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego.
The Brewers are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Padres have a 4-8 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Brewers have a slight leg up on the Padres, as the Brewers have won their last two games while the Padres have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Padres are 38-10. The Brewers have a 33-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Milwaukee and San Diego both rank in the bottom half of the league in runs. Milwaukee sits at 18th with 428 runs this season and San Diego ranks 19th with 427.
Milwaukee and San Diego both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Milwaukee sits at 23rd with 265 this season and San Diego ranks 21st with 276.
When the Brewers hit at least one home run, they are 34-23. When the Padres hit at least one homer, they have a 35-20 record.