John Lamb (0-3, 5.24 ERA) and Wily Peralta (5-8, 4.30 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (55-77) and the Milwaukee Brewers (58-75) at the Great American Ball Park. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 5 and can be seen on FSOH and FSWI.
Lamb pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs and striking out eight in a 4-1 defeat to the Brewers. Joey Votto (.316, 81 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 8 SBs) had another good game Wednesday, going 2 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and three RBIs. Peralta went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run and striking out six in a 4-1 win over the Reds in his last outing. Khris Davis (.235, 36 Rs, 17 HRs, 48 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 Thursday with one RBI.
Cincinnati is a narrow -106 favorite at home against Milwaukee. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently nine runs. The Reds have an overall money line of -2,007 and a record as the favorite of 28-23. Cincinnati is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 4-6 SU record in its last ten outings. The Reds have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.0 runs per game. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 120 bases.
Over in the other dugout, Milwaukee is coming in with an overall money line of -1,628 and a disappointing record of 32-48 as the underdog. They are 16-22 as the underdog against NL Central opponents, and 24-29 SU. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.1 runs per game by averaging 5.3 during that stretch. The Brewers average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 7-6. The Reds have a 43-58 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Peralta takes the mound. Lamb (LHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have an 18-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Cin, O/U - Over
The Reds are 25-29 against their divisional rivals, while the Brewers are 24-29 against their division.
The Reds managed to give up five walks in their last game. They'll have to pick it up against the Brewers who are coming in with a 14-3 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 8-55. The Brewers have a 10-58 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half of the league at 20th when it comes to home runs, hitting 120 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 141.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Cincinnati sits at seventh with 8.60 hits per game and Milwaukee ranks ninth with 8.52.
Ranking 21st, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.709). Cincinnati ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .715.
The Brewers are 33-53 when they allow at least one home run. The Reds perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 25-60 record.