In the first of a four-game series between the Atlanta Braves (56-84) and the New York Mets (78-61) at Turner Field, Shelby Miller (5-13, 2.81 ERA) and Bartolo Colon (13-11, 4.18 ERA) take the mound. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 10 and will air on SPSO and SNY.
In his most recent outing, Miller pitched 4.1 innings, allowing six runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking three in an 8-2 loss to the Nationals. Freddie Freeman (.283, 56 Rs, 16 HRs, 54 RBIs, 3 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run and two RBIs. The Mets were victorious over the Marlins 7-0 the last time Colon pitched. He went 9.0 innings, giving up zero runs and striking out two. Yoenis Cespedes (.298, 95 Rs, 32 HRs, 97 RBIs, 7 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Mets, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Atlanta, a +156 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against New York. The matchup currently has a seven-run Over/Under (O/U). The Braves perform poorly as an underdog with a 41-70 record and have an overall money line of -1,994. They are 1-7 as the underdog over their last 10 games. Atlanta has been struggling as of late. In the last 10 games, Atlanta has only averaged 2.6 runs per game compared to the 3.6 they've averaged on the season. The Braves lead the majors in extra base hits with 328. Below average play has been the norm lately for the Atlanta pitchers. The Braves have given up an average of 8.1 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.8 runs per game.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Mets come into this game with a solid win percentage of .711 when playing as the favorite (59-24) and an overall money line of +1,138. Against divisional opponents, they are 39-20 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 32-12 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.7 runs per game, above their 4.2 season average. The Mets are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.45 ERA this season. They have a WHIP of 1.18, best in the MLB.
The Braves will take on a right-hander (Colon) in this game and have a 46-67 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Miller will take the mound against the Mets, who have a 60-48 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner - NYM, O/U - Over
The Mets sit at 40-20 against their divisional rivals, while the Braves are 27-33.
The Braves are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Mets have a record of 15-3 when opponents' pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 10-60. The Mets have a 16-50 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 30th in home runs, Atlanta has hit 86 this season. New York ranks eighth with 152 home runs.
The Braves and the Mets both average 8.41 hits per game.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.678). New York ranks near the bottom at 22nd with an OPS of .713.
The Mets are 37-44 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Braves are 22-62 when they allow at least one homer.