A.J. Burnett (8-5, 3.06 ERA) and Wily Peralta (5-8, 4.21 ERA) take the hill in the first of a four-game series between the Pittsburgh Pirates (83-55) and the Milwaukee Brewers (61-78) at PNC Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 10 and can be seen on FSWI and RTPT.
Burnett pitched 4.1 innings in his most recent start, surrendering seven runs (one unearned), striking out four and walking two in a 15-5 defeat to the Reds. Jung Ho Kang (.287, 56 Rs, 15 HRs, 56 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and four RBIs. Peralta went 2.0 innings, surrendering zero runs and walking one in a 7-3 defeat to the Reds in his last outing. Ryan Braun (.288, 83 Rs, 25 HRs, 81 RBIs, 22 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Pittsburgh is a -168 favorite against Milwaukee and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Pirates have recorded an overall money line of +1,628 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 64-32. Pittsburgh has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 17-18 and 24-34 as the favorite and SU respectively. The Pirates have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the NL in offense with 4.2 runs per game. The Pirates are one of the best in the NL in terms of hits with a phenomenal 9.1 per game. Pittsburgh's pitchers fall apart when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game rises to 4.3 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 3.6 season average.
In games where it is the underdog, Milwaukee has a 35-48 record and an overall money line of -1,529. They have managed to pull off a perfect record over their last ten games while playing as the underdog, and have a 7-3 SU record over the same span. Offensively, the Brewers have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 6.5 during that stretch. The Brewers average 4.5 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL Central is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 9-6. The Pirates have a 67-42 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Peralta takes the mound. Burnett (RHP) will be on the hill against the Brewers, who have a 42-62 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Pit, O/U - Over
The Pirates hold a 25-34 record this season against teams in the NL Central Division. The Brewers' record in these matchups is 26-30.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 13 strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 1-5 when they are struck out that many times or more.
It looks like the Pirates have a slight leg up on the Brewers, as the Pirates have won their last two games while the Brewers have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Brewers are 46-11. The Pirates have a 59-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 18th in runs, Milwaukee has earned 575 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 14th with 587 runs.
Ranking 23rd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 351 this season. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 377.
The Pirates are 55-25 when they hit at least one home run. The Brewers perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 47-31 record.