Carlos Carrasco (14-11, 3.44 ERA) and Kyle Gibson (10-11, 3.96 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a four-game series between the Cleveland Indians (77-78) and the Minnesota Twins (81-75) at Progressive Field. The Twins won the last game 4-2 and Minnesota leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 30 and can be seen on STOh and FSN.
Carrasco pitched 9.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out 15 and walking two in a 6-0 win over the Royals. Francisco Lindor (.319, 48 Rs, 11 HRs, 49 RBIs, 9 SBs) went 1 for 4 Monday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. Gibson went 2.2 innings, surrendering six runs, striking out five and walking two in a 6-3 defeat to the Indians in his last outing. Eddie Rosario (.270, 56 Rs, 12 HRs, 49 RBIs, 11 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Twins, going 3 for 4 Monday with one run.
This one isn't expected to be close when Cleveland, a big -182 favorite, takes on Minnesota. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at eight runs for this matchup. The Indians have an overall money line of -1,455 and a record as the favorite of 51-49. Cleveland is a disappointing 2-5 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Indians are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits at home with a phenomenal 9.2 per game. Cleveland's pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 3.0 runs per game, well under their season average of 4.0. The Indians are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.19 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Indians, who lead the AL in strikeouts per game with 8.8.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 61-59 record and an overall money line of +2,201. They are 27-25 as the underdog against fellow AL Central members, and 38-32 SU. The Twins allow 4.3 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 3.0 runs per game during that span.
The Twins lead the season series, 10-6. The Indians have a 55-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they'll be facing when Gibson takes the mound. Carrasco (RHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 53-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner - Cle, O/U - Over
Minnesota 6-2-1 SU in its last 9 games.
Minnesota 4-1-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road.
Minnesota 5-1-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland.
Minnesota is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games, when playing on the road against Cleveland.
When leading after 7 innings, Cleveland is 28-26, while Minnesota is 28-30.
The Twins are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Indians have a 1-11 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Indians are 11-58. The Twins have a 16-62 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 22nd in home runs, Cleveland has hit 135 this season. Minnesota ranks 16th with 152 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Minnesota is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.40 per game. Cleveland ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.65.
Ranking 22nd, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.711). Cleveland ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .725.
The Twins are 43-57 when they allow at least one home run. The Indians perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 45-61 record.