Terrific fields will continue to be the theme as the PGA Tour inches towards the Masters in April. WGC events, regardless of the calendar, always draw a big crowd because of the exclusive nature of the event and a hefty prize purse. Over $10 million will be handed out to the field at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Naucalpan, Mexico for this weekend’s WGC-Mexico Championship.
As always, we’re scanning the DFS board for the best values. With a field as strong as this one, some really good players are going to be at really affordable prices. This is also a limited field with up to 72 players maximum, so there will be a lot of overlap in those contests.
Here are some of the value picks we like for this week:
Paul Casey ($8,600) – If Paul Casey can get off to a good start, he’ll be in contention this weekend. Casey has opened the two years in Mexico with a 73 and a 74, respectively. After that, Casey has shot 68-68-66-71-67-66. He has to get off to a better start this time around, but even if he doesn’t, he’s still going to carry some DFS equity for us. Casey played extremely well at Pebble Beach two weeks ago and played better at Riviera than his score would indicate in those rough conditions. He led the field in strokes gained tee-to-green, which certainly doesn’t hurt at a tough track like this one. Even with Casey’s rough start last year, he finished tied for 12th.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,200) – When Tommy Fleetwood teed it up for this event last year, he was +1600. This year, he’s +4000. He obviously isn’t in the greatest form, but Fleetwood was the runner-up here in 2017 and snagged a top-15 finish in 2018. He struggled early, but ended strong with a 67-66 over the weekend to move up the board. The top 10 and top 15 have mostly been split between Americans and European Tour guys, which is something that will be addressed down a bit further, but Fleetwood is a guy that seems to like this course, has played well here, and appears to be flying under the radar.
Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,600) – There are two players that make the cut this week for a very specific reason. Club de Golf Chapultepec is just outside of Mexico City. That means that altitude is an enormous factor. The altitude of Mexico City is about 2,600 feet higher than that of Denver and certainly much higher than any PGA Tour stop outside of the alternate event in Reno. Fitzpatrick is the reigning two-time winner of the Omega European Masters in Crans-Montana, Switzerland. It didn’t provide a big edge for Fitzpatrick last year, but he did finish just outside the top 15 in 2017.
Tyrrell Hatton ($7,300) – We’ll bark up the Tyrrell Hatton tree again this week. Hatton was a big letdown last week at Riviera, but he has a better history here. Hatton is one of four players to finish in the top 10 in each of the two years at Club de Golf Chapultepec. The others are Justin Thomas, Phil Mickelson, and Dustin Johnson. That is some pretty lofty company. Hatton opened with a 70, but played his way to just one shot off the lead by the end of Sunday by going 68-64-67. He had four rounds under par in 2017.
Alex Noren ($7,100) – It’s time to unleash the other altitude player on our list. Alex Noren is also a two-time winner of the even at Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland, with his most recent win coming in 2016. Noren skipped the Pro-Am and also last week’s mess at the Genesis Open, so he should be nice and well-rested this time around. Noren tied for 14th last year, including a Sunday 66 to climb up the board a bit. Keep in mind that players familiar with altitude should have a leg up and also that a lot of guys struggle on the first day. Only 19 players went under 70 on Thursday in 2017 and 22 in 2018. Hopefully these five guys adjust to the conditions quickly and get off to good starts.
