Free Agents and Super Bowl Futures
- Updated: April 11, 2013
NFL Betting Trends- Free Agents and Super Bowl Futures
The NFL will stage its annual college draft later this month with the opening round taking place on Thursday, April 25th, but all 32 teams have been hard at work trying to add some missing pieces to the Super Bowl title puzzle through free agency which began in early March.
With over a month of big name signings under our belt it is a good time to take a look at a few of the moves that have already had an impact on a team’s futures odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII.
At the top of the list in terms of impact on the current odds is wide receiver Wes Welker leaving one top contender to play for another. When Bovada first released its Super Bowl futures odds, which was actually less than a week after Baltimore won last season’s title, the New England Patriots were slight favorites over the Denver Broncos to win it all in the AFC. Welker’s decision to turn down the Patriots’ final offer and sign with the Broncos created a firestorm of comments about the move. The bottom line is that this was obviously enough to close the gap between the two teams as both are now listed at 15/2 to win it all next season.
San Francisco opened the offseason as the odds-on-favorite to take that one final step to a NFL title in 2013 and its activity over the past month has helped to keep it at the top at 7/1. First, the 49ers pulled off a trade with Baltimore to add Anquon Boldin to the list of targets that Colin Kaepernick will be able to utilize in the passing game. They then addressed the defensive side of the ball by signing free agent defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey, who was with Kansas City last season. They also decided to take a flyer on cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, who was recently released by Philadelphia after a disastrous two-year stint with the team.
A team with some solid value in its current Super Bowl odds is the Atlanta Falcons at 14/1. They snapped their playoff jinx by making it all the way the NFC Championship in 2012 and came dangerously close to winning that game. They took a major step towards getting back there in 2013 by convincing future ‘Hall of Fame’ tight end Tony Gonzalez to stick around for one more run at a title as opposed to hanging up his spikes. The Falcons decided to part ways with Pro Bowl running back Michael Turner, but quickly fill that void by signing another Pro Bowler in Stephen Jackson away from St. Louis. For good measure they added another former Pro Bowler by signing defensive lineman Osi Umenyiora, who decided to part ways with the Giants after a long stint with the team.
If it is true that defensive wins championships, the current 9/1 odds that the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII are another valuable proposition. The Seahawks finished the 2012 season ranked fourth in the NFL in overall defense but more importantly they were ranked at the top of the list in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 15.3 points a game. To make sure it stays at the top, Seattle went out and signed defensive ends Cliff Avril, who was a free agent from Detroit and Michael Bennett from Tampa Bay.
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