France Ligue 1 Match of the Day Round 1 – Monaco vs. Lyon (8/9/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-08-08

The Monégasques barely escaped relegation last season, but they are looking to get back to the top 3 of Ligue 1 this time around. Lyon will represent a severe obstacle in Monaco’s intent to get three points in the season opener, and the visitors are slight favorites here. The game between Monaco and Lyon will take place at Stade Louis II on August 9th, 2019.

Monaco vs. Lyon

Three-Way: 1: Monaco +200; X: +229 Draw; 2: Lyon +137 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +0.5: Monaco -167; Lyon +129

Total 2.5 goals: Over -105; Under -125

MONACO

Last year was forgettable for the Monégasques as they narrowly avoided the relegation playoffs. Still, their fans got used to seeing them open the season on a high note as Monaco is without a loss in their previous four opening day games (W3, D1). Both teams scored in each of the last five matches.

The home crowd may need to wait until the second 45 minutes to see the first goal in the game. Ten of the 11 goals Monaco have scored in their last five opening day fixtures arrived in the second half, as did 65.79% of their league goals last year. Despite those facts, Monaco averaged only 1.0 per Ligue 1 match at home in 2018-19.

Leonardo Jardim will be without forward Stevan Jovetic, who is sidelined with a knee injury while Danijel Subasic (muscle), and youngsters Pietro Pellegri (groin) and Willem Geubbels (muscle) are listed as doubtful to face Lyon.

Betting Trends:

  • Gelson Martins netted four goals for Monaco last season, and all were the openers scored before the 20th minute
  • Six of Monaco’s nine Ligue 1 home losses last year came by a single-goal difference

LYON

A finishing six-match streak without a defeat helped Lyon to get to the third position in 2018-19, and they have now scored in 15 straight games. Monaco, however, was the last team that kept the net intact against Lyon as they beat the Kids 2-0. That encounter remains the only H2H duel in the previous eight that produced under 2.5 goals.

Lyon is excellent when it comes to opening day matches, though, as they previously lost the opening game of the season in 2003-04 (W12, D3 since). Nine of their 12 opening wins after that loss were without conceding a goal, and they’ve allowed only 0.42 goals on average per game in that span.

Bruno Genesio is delighted to have all the players at his disposal as the offseason turned out to be quite kind toward his squad, and no new injuries occurred.

Betting Trends:

  • Moussa Dembélé, Lyon’s top Ligue 1 scorer last year, bagged ten of his 15 goals in the second half
  • Lyon was the second-best away team in 2018/19 as they averaged 1.68 points and 1.68 goals per road match

Lyon won five of the previous ten H2H encounters, but Monaco won two of the last three while the Monégasques were victorious in the past two meetings at Stade Louis II. Both teams have scored in four of the previous five H2H matches in Monaco. The last three produced over 1.5 goals in the opening 45 minutes. I am backing both teams to find the back of the net here as I am not convinced their respective defenses are good enough to keep the clean sheet.

MY PICK: BTTS YES (-133)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Monaco lost three of the previous ten home matches against Lyon, and are on a two-game winning run at Stade Louis II. They are in a better form than Lyon if we consider pre-season games, and I am going with the hosts to get a positive result here and cover the +0.5 spread.

MY PICK: Monaco AH +0.5 (-167)

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