Colin is coming off a bizarre 1-2-2 week, including two pushes, but is still 40-27-3 on the year, and looking to sprint through the finish of the regular season. He loves this week’s games and can’t wait to unwrap some holiday winners.
Here are Colin’s Week 16 NFL plays:
1. Bills (+12) at Patriots – Colin can’t pass up the Bills getting 12 in Foxboro, where they’re 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Patriots. Buffalo is 6th in the NFL in rushing (129.1 YPG), which should allow them to shorten the game, and Tyrod Taylor can make some things happen against a New England defense that’s giving up 25.5 PPG and a Pass Rating of 111.4 in their last 2.
Also, Tom Brady is in the middle of his worst stretch of the season, throwing for just 2 TD’s, with 4 INT’s, and Passer Rating of 75.0. Pats win, but Buffalo covers the 12. 28-20.
2.Falcons at Saints (-5.5) – Colin doesn’t like swallowing points, but he’ll take the Saints laying 5.5, at home against Atlanta. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS over their last 5 on the road, and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 in New Orleans. Drew Brees has been hot in his last 8 games, completing 74.0% of his passes with 10 Pass TD’s, 3 INT’s, and a Passer Rating of 107.3. He should pick apart an Atlanta D that has given up 7 Pass TD’s, forced only 1 INT, and allowed an opposing QB Passer Rating of 119.0 in their last 3.
Matt Ryan is only completing 55.2% of his passes with 2 Pass TD’s, 3 INT’s, and a Passer Rating of 70.4 in his last 3 games. He’ll struggle against a Saints defense that’s only allowing opposing QB’s to complete 51.5%, with 2 Pass TD’s, 5 INT’s and a Passer Rating of 48.8 since star rookie corner Marshon Lattimore returned to the lineup. Take the Saints, lay the 5.5. 32-24.
3.Jags (-4) at 49ers – Colin loves Jimmy G, but he’ll take the Jags as 4-point road favorites in San Francisco. Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS over their last 5, 7-2 ATS over their last 9 on the road, and their defense ranks 1st in the NFL in PPG and Sacks, and 2nd in Takeaways. Garoppolo should be under pressure all day.
Blake Bortles is playing the best football of his career, and Jacksonville is 8-0 on the year when he doesn’t throw a pick, outscoring opponents by 22.3 PPG, and only allowing 8.6 PPG in those games. The Niners D only has 7 INT’s on the year, so he should stay mistake free. Sacksonville wins and covers the 4. 28-17.
4.Rams (-6.5) at Titans – Colin doesn’t buy the Titans, so he’s rolling with the high-scoring Rams laying 6.5, on the road in Tennessee. L.A. is 7-2 ATS over their last 9, 5-1 ATS over their last 6 on the road, and over their last 3 games, the defense has held opposing QB’s to a 79.4 Passer Rating, and only 54% Completions.
They’ll face Marcus Mariota, who has posted career worsts in YDS/Pass, Interceptions, and Passer Rating. It’s a big number on the road, but the Rams score enough to cover the 6.5. 31-23, L.A.
5. Seahawks (+5) at Cowboys – Colin is taking the struggling Seahawks getting 5.5 in a bounce back game after getting humiliated by the Rams. It may be Zeke’s return game, but this is all about Russell Wilson coming off a loss.
Sunday was only the Seahawks 3rd Loss by 10+ points since drafting Wilson. Following the previous 2, Seattle won both games by an average of 23.5 PPG. Dallas wins. Seattle keeps it close and covers. 24-23.
3-Unit Play. #112. Take Chicago Bears -6.5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 1pm est)
You you think the Bears and Coach Fox want to lose to the Browns, absolutely not. If there is any team that will get up to face the Browns it probably will be the Bears because they do not want to look like they are regressing in any fashion. The Bears defense is as stout as it comes frankly and given that the Browns will continue to run the gammut with Kizer who simply has his issues against elite defenses, look for the Bears to do enough here to get it done as they are not going to the playoffs, they need a morale and no way in God’s Green Earth can this coaching staff afford a loss at the hands of the Browns at this stage.
3-Unit Play. #114. Take Carolina -10 over Tampa Bay (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Tampa Bay played great against Carolina but this team is unbelievably banged up and given that this is a division game, the Bucs coming off a big win against the Packers and the Panthers needing to make a big statement win as they look to play themselves into the Division Title, they need to win this game to send that message. Whereas the Falcons and Saints will battle it out this week, look for the Panthers to take care of business from start to finish as the Bucs are way over valued here and the Panthers should do a great job of getting it done as the Bucs offense will be lackluster against an elite Panthers defense and the Falcons defense played terrible and made the Bucs offense look better than it is.
3-Unit Play. #102. Take Under 47.5 LA Rams vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday @ 1pm est)
If there is one team that could slow down the Rams offense it could be the Titans. The Rams can score in bunches as the Seahawks found out and the Titans do not want to get embarrassed. Conveniently, LA has a great defense and Tennessee has a woeful offense and that likely sets up for a decent public fade here in the Under.
7-Unit Play. Take #105 Detroit (-4.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 24)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
The Bengals are a team that has quit on the season. They were blown out two weeks ago at home by a bad Bears team. Then they were blown out last week on the road at Minnesota. The Bengals have scored just 14 combined points in those two games and the offense has been ineffective over the last month. Detroit is in the middle of the playoff race in the NFC. They do not want to blow it against a team that has nothing to play for. The Lions are 6-0 SU and ATS against teams that are below .500 this year. Detroit will take advantage of a Bengals secondary that is very beat up. And with a big edge at the quarterback position I think that the Lions will get the job done. Lay the points.
-Los Angeles lost 30-13 in Kansas City last week, and off that ugly loss, expect a big effort
-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play vs. defenses that only allow 5.5 yards per play
-Chargers’ defense is giving up 18.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 22 points per game
-New York has lost their last two games by a combined score of 54-19; in terrible current form
-offense is averaging just 5.3 yards per play vs. defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play
-Jets’ defense allows 24.4 points per game vs. offenses that only average 21.6 points per game
Play CHARGERS (-) as a 3% play.
(3% play) NEW ORLEANS -5/-5.5 (vs. Atlanta) – 1:00 pm ET #116
-Atlanta is off 3 straight close games and must travel for second straight road game on short week
-offense is only averaging 22.7 points per game vs. defenses that give up 22.0 points per game
-Falcons’ defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 22.4 points per game; big step-up
-New Orleans has scored 30 points or more in their last 4 home games; expect more of the same
-offense is averaging 31.1 points per game at home vs. defenses that only allow 21.9 ppg overall
-Saints’ defense gives up 5.5 yards per play at home vs. offenses that average 5.6 yards per play
Play SAINTS (-) as a 3% play.
(3% play) OVER 52 (Falcons/Saints) – 1:00 pm ET #117
-Atlanta has scored just 53 total points in their last 3 games; need to trade points with the Saints
-offense is averaging 6.3 yards per play on the road vs. defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play
-Falcons’ defense has given up 63 points to the Saints in their last two trips to New Orleans
-New Orleans has scored 30 points or more in four of their last five games; in good current form
-offense is averaging 31.1 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home this season
-Saints’ defense is giving up 23.9 points per game at home vs. offenses that average only 22.7 ppg
-Seattle is off back-to-back losses with their last being a blowout home loss; expect big effort
-offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play vs. defenses that give up just 5.5 yards per play
-Seahawks’ defense is giving up just 18.0 points per game on 5.1 yards per play on the road
-Dallas has won 3 straight games, and with Ezekiel Elliott returning, this line is now over-inflated
-offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play at home vs. defenses that give up 5.6 yards per play
-Cowboys’ defense is giving up 24.1 points per game on awful 6.1 yards per play at home this year
Play SEAHAWKS (+) as a 3% play.