8-Unit Play. Take #370 New Orleans (-4.5) over Carolina (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
This play is from my NFL 411 System and is my Game of the Year.
This is a huge game in the NFC. The winner of this game will have the inside track to winning the NFC South and will still be in a hunt for a first round bye. I think that team will be New Orleans. The Saints are the better team in a lot of areas here. And they blew out the Panthers on the road in the first meeting, winning 34-13. New Orleans has a great home field advantage in the Superdome and it will make a big difference in this game. The Panthers have not played well on the road. I won a 7-Unit Play on them last week from the NFL 411 System over the Jets. But the Panthers barely covered in that game. They covered because of a late defensive touchdown and a questionable call from the officials. The Panthers have been outgained by their opponents in three of their last four games. The Saints are coming off a tough loss at Los Angeles. But they had won eight straight games prior to that and have been dominating at home. The Saints are 22-5 ATS at home against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has also had the upper hand at the window in this series. They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Panthers. And right now the Saints have the better quarterback in Drew Brees. The Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 4-0 ATS in their last four divisional games. New Orleans is 40-18 ATS against teams that are above .500 and I like the Saints to get another blowout win here over their division rival.
3-Unit Play. Take #361 Houston (+7) over Tennessee (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
I will take the points in this game. Houston has dominated this series, winning eight of the last 10 meetings including a 57-14 blowout win at home on Oct. 1. Houston is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Titans and I see this as a close game. Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last six games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Only one team has beaten them by more than one score. The Titans have been overvalued. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games. And they were fortunate to get past Indianapolis last week. The Titans have won their last four games by a combined total of just 14 points! They have been winning close games all year. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Tennessee and I like them to cover this number.
3-Unit Play. Take #373 Los Angeles Rams (-7) over Arizona (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
The Rams hammered the Cardinals 33-0 in the first meeting this year. I do not think that it will be that big of a blowout. But I do think that the Rams are going to keep it going. This is one of the best offenses and one of the best teams in the NFL. They are No. 2 in points scored with 30 per game and No. 7 in points allowed at just 18.7. Minnesota is the only team to beat the Rams over the last six games. Los Angeles has won the other five games by an average score of 28-10. Arizona is down to its third-string quarterback this year and they are suffering through a very disappointing season. The Cardinals are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games and just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games. Arizona is just 5-15 ATS against a team with a winning record. Lay the points.
4-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 42.0 Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 3)
This number opened at 41.5 but it has been bet up. I think that this will be a higher scoring game and I think that the Chargers offense will break out. Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he finally has healthy weapons to throw to. Rivers and the Chargers offense had no problem moving the ball in their blowout win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. They had over 500 yards of total offense and Rivers threw for 434 yards on the day. And they would have had even more points if their kicker had not gotten hurt. Cleveland has been allowing 26 points per game, which is No. 30 in the NFL. The Browns have surrendered at least 30 points in three of their past four games. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four road games and 9-4 in their last 13 games against a team with a losing record. Cleveland’s offense has been improving as DeShone Kizer gets experience. And I think that the Browns will manage to score some points late in what should be a blowout win for the home team. I have this game at 34-17 and I like it to go ‘over’.