3 Unit Play. Take #265 South Carolina +8 over Michigan (12:00p.m., Monday January 1 ESPN2 – Outback Bowl)
The Michigan Wolverines defense is no joke but I really like the QB play of South Carolina Jake Bentley towards the end of the season. If he can keep the turnovers down in this game and the Gamecocks offense is balance then I see game being close for all four quarters. Michigan comes into this bowl game dropping their last two games and early all the money came in on Michigan but I see this game being close and I believe South Carolina is a live dog in this bowl game. Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and the South Carolina Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
4 Unit Play. Take #267 UCF +9.5 over Auburn (12:30p.m., Monday January 1 ESPN – Texas Bowl)
The UCF Golden Knights will look to complete a perfect season and the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia and here is another live dog in a college bowl game. The Auburn Tigers will want to establish the run early in this game because the Tigers do not want this game to become a shootout. The Golden Knights offense put up video game numbers on offense all season long while the Auburn Tigers only scored 7 points in their last games against Georgia. I do see a hard fought close game in Atlanta but with Knights QB McKenzie Milton throwing the ball around to different offensive guys in this game I see the Knights covering this number. Throw in the fact that Auburn only going 0-4-1 ATS against non-conference teams and the Tigers will not cover this big number.
3 Unit Play. Take #269 LSU -3 over Notre Dame (1:00p.m., Monday January 1 ABC – Citrus Bowl)
Notre Dame was the talk of College Football the beginning of the season until the Miami Hurricanes embarrassed them 41-8 and then end of the season the Stanford Cardinals beat tem 38-20. The LSU Tigers come into these game winners of 6 out 7 and since they lost to Alabama 24-10 the Tigers outscored their last 3 opponents 108-41 and I see the Tigers taking this game against the Irish. Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and the LSU Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.
6 Unit Play. Take #272 Oklahoma +2 over Georgia (5:00p.m., Monday January 1 ESPN – Rose Bowl)
The Rose Bowl at Pasadena, California will see an outstanding matchup and Monday night I see the Heisman Trophy winner carrying his team to a big Rose Bowl victory. Oklahoma Sooners QB and Heisman winner Baker Mayfield ended his regular season throwing touchdowns all over the field and the Sooners offense is explosive. The Georgia Bulldogs survives on their defense and the Dogs defense is quick and can hit hard but I see Mayfield picking apart the secondary in this game. OU defense is no joke either and if the Georgia Bulldogs can’t run the ball and give Mayfield extra possessions I see the Sooners winning this game. Oklahoma is 17-5 ATS against a team with a winning record and again the Heisman Trophy winner has a big game.
3 Unit Play. Take #273 Alabama -3 over Clemson (8:45p.m., Monday January 1 ESPN – Sugar Bowl)
The College Football Playoff will give us the 3rd consecutive season we see these two teams battle it out and the Clemson Tigers will look for back-to-back wins over Nick Saban. But hold your horses because Monday night I see the Alabama Crimson Tide getting revenge and KO the defending champs. Alabama wins this game on defense and I see the Alabama running game dominating this game. Alabama is 4-1 ATS when playing on a neutral site game and the Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS against ACC teams.
(3% play) UNDER 42 (South Carolina/Michigan) – 12:00 pm ET (espn2) #266
-South Carolina comes in off a loss; their worst defensive game of the season; big bounce back
-offense averaged just 21.6 points per game on the road vs. defenses that gave up 26.9 ppg
-Gamecocks’ defense allows just 20.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 27.8 ppg
-Michigan comes in off back-to-back losses in which they gave up 55 points; expect strong effort
-offense averaged just 4.9 yards per play away from home vs. defenses that allowed 5.3 yppl
-Wolverines’ defense allows only 18.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 27.6 ppg overall
Play UNDER as a 3% play.
(3% play) OVER 61 (Georgia/Oklahoma) – 5:00 pm ET (ESPN) #271
-Georgia went 12-1 this season, and they scored 31 points or more in nine of their games
-offense is averaging 34.9 points per game vs. defenses that give up 25.7 points per game
-Bulldogs’ defense gave up 40 points against Auburn; will face a similar spread offense here
-Oklahoma also went 12-1 this season, and they scored 31 points or more in 13 of their games
-offense is averaging 44.9 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 27.9 points per game
-Sooners’ defense gave up 35, 41, and 52 points in three of their five true road games this season
-Alabama is 11-1 on the season, and off their first loss + revenge, expect a supreme performance
-offense averaged 39.1 ppg on 6.9 yards per play vs. defenses that gave up just 5.7 yards per play
-Crimson Tide defense only gave up 11.5 points per game on 4.0 yards per play this season
-Clemson went 12-1 on the season with an ugly loss at Syracuse; will face top-rated defense now
-offense averaged 5.7 yards per play on the road vs. defenses that allowed 5.7 yards per play
-Tigers’ defense much worse away from home; gave up 10.0 ppg and 1.3 yppl more on the road