Free Pick for Monday MLB Seattle Mariners Run Line +1.5 runs (+) @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET –
Quick…who is the hottest team in the American League right now? If you answered Seattle you’d probably be one of the few to get the right answer. But the fact is that the Mariners have very quietly won 4 straight games and no other AL team has a longer winning streak than that. That said, I certainly like the value being offered here with being able to take the M’s not only at +1.5 runs on the run line but also getting a plus money return with the run line! Yes, the Astros have the number one record in the American League and Lance McCullers has great numbers on the season. However, Houston was just 3-3 in their last 6 games prior to yesterday’s win. Also, McCullers allowed 9 runs (8 earned) on 15 hits in the 9 and 2/3 innings spanning his last two starts before the All Star break. Ariel Miranda gets the start for the Mariners and the southpaw’s ERA may not be “that” impressive but he has a 0.88 WHIP in his last 3 starts! In other words, he doesn’t allow many baserunners and over the past two months he truly has only been hit hard ONCE in ELEVEN starts! Miranda got roughed up at Minnesota but, in the other 10 starts he allowed only 35 hits in 63 and 2/3 innings of work. You read that right…the Seattle left-hander allowed only 3.5 hits per outing in those 10 starts! I’ll gladly grab the exceptional value being offered here with the big dog Mariners. By the way, as a road dog of +175 to +250 this season, the M’s are a perfect 3-0! Look for the Mariners to improve to 7-2 in Monday games on the year. The Astros are a great team but they’re very overpriced here and they are 19-20 (-$9,500!) in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs the past 3 seasons. Free Pick on SEATTLE MARINERS on the run line Monday evening. Best of luck, Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach
New York is worth a look here as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. New York won 2 of 3 at home out of the break against the Rockies, but are going to come out a little extra motivated after yesterday’s ugly 4-13 loss in the finale against Colorado. Losing in blowout fashion is much easier to rebound from than how the Cardinals lost on Sunday. St Louis blew a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 9th to lose 2 of 3 against division rival Pittsburgh. I just feel this is a great price to back New York given how poor St Louis starter Adam Wainwright has been on the road. Wainwright owns a 8.36 ERA and 1.832 WHIP in 8 road starts. Take the Mets -111!
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Philadelphia Phillies and the Miami Marlins face off on Monday, and with the Phillies at plus money they have good value. On the mound for the Marlins is Tom Koehler who has been flat out bad this year. He comes into this game with a 1-4 record and an ERA of of eight. He comes into this game really struggling. In his last three starts he has gone a total of 9.2 innings and given up 18 innings. I think the Phillies will be able to get to him early again and that will lead them to running up the score.
On the mound for the Phillies is Jerad Eickhoff who has pitched well in the last two games. He has gone a total of 11 innings and only gave up one run. Some trends to note. Marlins are 1-7 in Koehlers last 8 home starts. Marlins are 0-5 in their last 5 home games.
Back the Phillies. Good Luck, Razor Ray,
MLB | Jul 17, 2017
Cubs vs. Braves
OVER 9½ +105
Jon Lester is coming in 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts and 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA on the road this season. Meanwhile, Teheran is 1-6 with a 7.58 ERA at home this season and 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. Look for both starters to struggle tonight and this over to hit pretty easily in Atlanta.
I like the value here with the total, as I see a much lower scoring affair than the books are calling for in this matchup of NL East bottom feeders. These are two of the weaker offenses in the big leagues and neither was all that impressive at the plate in their first series back from the break.
Phillies will send out Jerad Eickhoff, who comes in at 1-7 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.494 WHIP in 15 starts. That’s not good, but Eickhoff appeared to get things figured out going into the break, as he posted a strong 2.12 ERA in his final 3 starts. His last two starts against the Marlins both came in Miami last year and he allowed a mere 3 runs in 13 innings of work. Marlins counter with Tom Koehler, who has atrocious numbers, posting a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in 10 starts. However, Koehler was much better in his final start before the break and owns a 3.21 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in 14 career starts against the Phillies.
UNDER is 13-3-2 in the Phillies last 18 games agaisnt a team with a losing record and 7-3-1 in Eickhoffs last 11 starts against the division. UNDER is 6-1-2 Miami’s last 9 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!
The Cleveland Indians were just swept by the Oakland A’s in their first series back from the All-Star Break. It’s safe to say that they’ll be highly motivated to get a win today, and that shouldn’t be a problem against the 35-58 San Francisco Giants.
Josh Tomlin certainly hasn’t been great this season at 5-9 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.419 WHIP over 17 starts. But he has actually been better than Matt Moore, who is 3-9 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.688 WHIP in 18 starts for the Giants.
Tomlin is 21-7 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. The Indians are 7-1 in their last eight interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter. San Francisco is 0-4 in Moore’s last four home starts. Bet the Indians Monday.
FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (+) over Oakland A’s, Monday at 10:05 PM ET
Both these teams have been hot but we like having the Rays here off of a loss. Tampa Bay has not lost back to back games since late June. The Rays are 8-4 in their last 12 games and they now visit an Oakland team that has won 3 straight games but is on a 15-22 run when they are entering a contest on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Daniel Gossett gets the start for the A’s in this one and he is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA on the season. Also, the right-hander has an 8.16 ERA in his last three starts and he has been hit hard in those outings. The Rays will have Jake Odorizzi toeing the rubber in Oakland tonight and he rates a big edge over Gossett. Odorizzi is off of a bad start in his final outing before the All Star break but he previously had gone at least 5 innings while holding the opposition to 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his 12 prior starts. In his last two visits to Oakland Odorizzi has allowed only 2 earned runs on just 8 hits over 14 innings. We look for another strong effort here and will grab the superb line value with the road team in this one! FREE PLAY: Bet the Tampa Bay Rays on the money line in late night action Monday!
The Key: The Tampa Bay Rays are 49-44 on the season and right in the middle of the AL East and AL Wild Card races. This is a team with an underrated lineup that is scoring 4.9 RPG against right-handed starters this season. Jake Odorizzi sports a 3.97 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Oakland. He pitched 8 shutout innings against the A’s in his last start against them toward the end of last season. The Rays should score plenty of runs off Daniel Gossett, who is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in 6 starts this year, including 0-2 with an 8.16 ERA in his last 3 starts. Take Tampa Bay.
The Baltimore Orioles are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall after getting swept by the Cubs over the weekend. They are 42-49 on the season and trending in the wrong direction. They Texas Rangers have fought their way back to 45-46 and are in position to make a run at the playoffs after taking two of three from the Royals over the weekend. It’s hard to believe that the Orioles are favored in this game with Chris Tillman on the mound. Tillman is 1-5 with a 7.90 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in 11 starts. Andrew Cashner has posted a solid 3.54 ERA in 14 starts this season for the Rangers. Tillman is 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in seven previous starts against Texas. The Orioles are 1-7 in their last eight home games.
Seattle at Houston on Monday Night is scheduled to see first pitch at 8:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park. The Mariners sit rest as the second place team in the American League Central 16.5 games behind tonight’s opponent, the Astros. They have won four straight, three of those coming against the AL Central last place Chicago White Sox to open their road trip. But the M’s are in the thick of the AL Wild Card just 2.5 games outside of the second slot currently owned by the New York Yankees.
The Mariners send Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.15 ERA) to the Minute Maid mound to oppose the Astros Lance McCullers Jr. (7-2, 3.05).
Ariel Miranda threw seven shutout innings allowing just two hits, two walks, while recording four strikeouts in his last turn against the Los Angeles Angels. However, tonight’s lineup via the Houston Astros is much different than that of the Halos. Miranda has the appearance of a solid option from start to start with his 4.15 ERA but the lefty has benefited from a .218 BABIP and 81.3% strand rate this season. Additionally his FIP is north of 5.00 and the Astros slash (.280/.349/.474/.824) an MLB best versus southpaws this season.
Miranda has a walk rate of 3-plus and a pedestrian K ratio of under 7.00. He has also seen favor in a career high 13-plus percent of his fly balls being infield pop-ups.
McCullers Jr. had won five in a row before his last turn versus the Toronto Blue Jays in which he allowed six runs in just 4-plus innings of work. McCullers ERA sits at a stellar 3.05 over 16 starts. His near 11.00 K/9 ranks in baseball’s Top-10 this season and he can credit the overwhelming success of his change up to an increased swinging strike percentage and his career 2-plus BB/9 this 2017 campaign. But regression should be expected tonight, continued from his last outing against the Jays, as his walk ratio is nearly half of what it was last year and he is working on a career campaign best 26% hard contact percentage.
The Mariners rank in baseball’s Top-10 percent with batting average against change ups and the healthy lineup is in good offensive form.
We benefit from the two pitchers traditional numbers and the fact that the Mariners are running well winning four straight, this in terms of the Over/Under posted by the oddsmakers tonight.
The Pirates have Kuhl on the mound and are 4-0 vs Milwaukee when he starts as he has a superb 2.25 era against the Brewers. Milwaukee counters with Suter who is 0-2 on the road with a 4+ Era. Road dogs off a home favored loss scoring 2 or less runs have lost over 85% of the time vs an opponent like the Pirates that come in off a home dog win. Look for the Pirates to take the opener.
After dropping a game to the NL Central lead on Sunday the Brewers are in a big spot Monday night in Pittsburgh with the Cubs picking up some momentum with a three-game winning streak since the break and a great showing from new acquisition Jose Quintana. Brent Suter has worked his way up to the big leagues with success as a reliever last season and early this season before getting a starting shot. His three starts this season have been solid including back-to-back quality starts bringing his season ERA to just 2.96, with an even lower FIP. Suter has good strikeout numbers and he gets to face a Pirates squad with a .701 team OPS in the past 22 games for barely four runs scored per game. Pittsburgh has only hit 20 of its 89 home runs vs. left-handers, posting a 10-12 mark vs. southpaw starters on the season. Despite Milwaukee’s success this season the Pirates have won four of seven meetings as this will be a big four-game road set for the Brewers. 24-year old Chad Kuhl has adequate numbers this season but he has really struggled at PNC Park with a 6.46 ERA in 39 innings of work. Kuhl has pitched pretty well in the last month but four of those five starts were on the road with one home outing vs. lowly San Francisco. The Pirates have shown a bit of life of late but this is still a favorable price on a first place Brewers team that has a great record vs. right-handed starters as well as on the road.
Chad Kuhl’s seasonal numbers don’t get many bettors excited. But since increasing his fastball velocity a few starts back, he’s quietly been effective. Over Kuhl’s last seven outings he flashed a 3.50 ERA with solid 29-15 K-to-BB ratio over 36 innings. He was asked to throw on short rest right before the All-Star Break but has had over a week to recover and should hit the ground running in this his second season. He’s not a bad matchup against the free swinging Milwaukee Brewers. Kuhl’s command is the one thing lacking but in two outings against the Brew Crew, Kuhl fanned eight batter in 8 innings and allowed only two walks and two runs. Milwaukee’s Brent Suter is another young arm that has the potential to thrive in the National League. Suter has primarily been used as a reliever but due to injuries is being asked to fill in as a spot starter. A soft-tossing, late blooming lefty, Suter relies on a heavy dose of strikes (187 walks over 679 career innings). In two starts against Baltimore and the New York Yankees, Suter allowed just two runs while fanning 13 and walking only two batters. He’s in a favorable situation tonight against a light-hitting Pirates lineup and in a ballpark that heavily favors southpaws. We’ll look to capitalize on Suter’s first-time-through-the-league as well as Kuhl’s steady improvement and play this game under the total.