Game Analysis view matchup stats
Lean – Under 43 – GREEN BAY (+2.5) vs Detroit
Brett Hundley did not play well in his first NFL start, gaining just 3.0 yards per pass play against New Orleans. My quarterback model projects Hundley to be about 10 points per game worse than Aaron Rodgers, which obviously drastically limits Green Bay’s play calling in the passing game. The Packers were able to find success on the ground (7.5 yards per rush) against the Saints 30th ranked rush defense but I don’t expect that to continue this week against a Lions defense holding opponents to 3.6 yards per rush (5th).
Detroit’s offense gained 7.0 yards per play last week but I think much of that was situation-based. The Lions had an extra week to prepare for a Steelers defense coming off two massive games against Kansas City and divisional rival Cincinnati. Detroit is still gaining less than 5 yppl on the season and I expect them to continue to play poorly on offense moving forward.
Green Bay’s defense has been unlucky to give up a touchdown on 74% of their opponents’ redzone trips thus far and I expect them to improve going forward given that no team since 2010 has surrendered a rate that high and the Packers’ defense is actually a bit better than average after adjusting for opposing offenses faced. I’ll pass on the side but our metrics like the Under.