Derby Day

  • pendo

Forums Other Sports Derby Day

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  • #403927


    Race 11 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (Grade I)

    #2 Divisidero: Won the past 2 derby days !!
    Buff Bradley does a great job of getting him to peak on this very day
    and it seems like he has done that again with the race pattern
    he set up for him coming into the race.

    #7 World Approval: Not much pace in here to run with this one early
    so can draw away late. Big weekend for this Barn: ‘Live Oak Plantation’
    and Breeder: ‘Live Oak Stud.’

    #8 Beach Patrol: Will flank World Approval the whole way and both
    should pull clear by 4 lengths turning for home.


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    Confidence goes up a notch when the margin is 40 points or more
    on muf/slop, and 30 points or more on turf. There are times when
    3 or 4 1st time starters have ratings perhaps 20 points apart (let’s
    say 300, 310, 315, 320). Because of other considerations
    (trainer, workouts, etc…) one might not favor the one with the
    highest rating. Remember this is a capping tool… not gospel.

    See these ratings like a baseball player’s batting average…
    the higher the average, the greater the probability of getting a hit…
    But he won’t get a hit every time up. In fact, ball players with a low
    batting avg. will often enough out hit the higher average player in a
    given game (like say Balty Vs. At-Your-Head-Beantown) but NOT
    over the course of the entire season.
    Don’t over look these less obvious uses for “Mudders & Turfers”
    which means do your homework on The Daily Racing Form and
    calculate tight Tomlinson Ratings for each nag.

    Irish War Cry is one of the best bets in the Derby, b/c of pedigree
    of ‘Beau Genius’ w/ ‘Polish Numbers’ & ‘Danzig’ (yes, that Danzig)
    on a wet track makes him even more formidable if track conditions
    are a less than ideal muddy or sloppy.

    But Horses with real-life experience over a wet track include the
    psycho-case ‘Classic Empire‘, (the odds-on favorite of the Derby)
    who broke his maiden on sloppy track at this Churchill last May.


    On further analysis of real-life experience Horses-For-Courses:
    Lookin At Lee‘ placed 2nd by 8 3/4 lengths behind Not This Time
    in the G3 Iroquois held at Churchill last September, gaining a BSF
    of only 72, his lowest mark in 6 races since.

    Gunnevera‘ had 1st race last June on slop, and Race Notes indicate
    he had “good kick” toward the end in his Place finish.

    L@L ties Gunn for the highest Late Pace Rating in the field at 117.

    Tapwrit‘ won the one-mile Pulpit Stakes in December at Gulfstream
    over a track rated sloppy, but the race was originally scheduled for a
    mile on turf.

    Thunder Snow‘ has 2 races on “soft” turf, finishing 6th in June in the
    G2 Coventry Stakes in Great Britain & won October’s G1 Critérium
    Int’l over a distance of 1,400 meters (c. 7 furlongs), but in France.

    Girvin‘ won the Louisiana Derby but is dealing with a quarter-crack
    in his hoof, which becomes more painful on a muddy / sloppy track.
    OUCH !!

    Last, but in no ways least, ‘Gormley‘ won by a head
    on a sloppy Santa Anita track in January at a mile grabbing a
    94 BSF (but his highest ESF is indeed 116 !!) — and never forget
    the fact California horses won the last 3 derbies !!!
    incl. the tri & exacta.
    On top of that, California based horses won the last 3 Preaknesses !!!
    This one (out of (Seattle Slew no less) likes rain — and for my $$
    winstrol + longer works beats out the aforesaid pedigree factor.
    According to the Form, “a little fireball on Wednesday and even
    more so Thursday, tugging his rider around for nearly two miles.

    Pay attention to how the derby starting gate area was constructed.
    It has created a built-in bias !!!

    But even so, muddy tracks vary markedly from one track to another, so Tomlinson Ratings don’t
    ensure any certain success in the slop under Twin Spires.


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    Race 10 Churchill Downs Stakes Presented by (Grade II)

    #1 Awesome Slew with California’s Champ Joel Rosario aboard.


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    Race 10:  #1
    Race 11:  #2
    Race 12: #’s  17, 18, 13, 5


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    This Derby will be thrown off track by inclement weather;
    something ludicrous can transpire under the Twin Spires.

    A sloppy track means there are no really “dominant”
    horses one can count on — not in this year’s field.

    One can play $1 boxes, just cough up the nec. $1026.
    Hey man, it’s only happening once a year, so eat it.
    Then focus and observe open-mindedly each of the
    ponies in the Post Parade => you’ll see who looks
    the fittest, most composed, relaxed, and happy to run.
    Double-Check it’s not 1st-time Lasix induced.

    Then, you Wheel that horse with the entire field:
    1st, 2nd, & 3rd place in a Trifecta-box costing $1026
    will the rest of the field’s post positions.
    That key horse need only “hit the board” to win —
    and with so many entries and a sloppy track
    the payout can very well be rather large at that.
    One can also do the aforesaid in 50-cent Trifectas,
    which cuts the initial outlay in half ($513).

    20k yields are not uncommon; 3k’s the min. pay.


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    There’s some speed figure metrics out there to capp with:
    Beyer, Bris, Equibase, and Timeform, to name but a few.
    They each weight + evaluate differently, but in unison
    are more productive for comparison intents & purposes.


    Beyer, Bris, Equibase, and Timeform — Best #, Last #
    Classic Empire: 102, 94; 108, 96; 116, 103; 123, 113.
    Irap: 93, 93; 100, 100; 101, 101; 121, 121.
    Always Dreaming: 97, 97; 102, 102; 101, 100; 118, 118.
    Irish War Cry: 101, 101; 102, 102; 110, 111; 118, 118
    Gunnevera: 97, 88; 102, 95; 108, 107; 117, 113.
    McCracken: 95, 88; 99, 96; 105, 104; 116, 116.
    Gormley: 94, 88; 102, 99; 116, 116; 116, 112.
    Tapwrit: 96, 76; 101, 87; 107, 106; 112, 106
    Hence: 97, 97; 103, 103; 97, 97; 108, 108.
    Patch: 89, 89; 101, 98; 105, 105; 108, 108.


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    Graham Motion set up Animal Kingdom to win the Derby in ’11,
    and he’s doing it again with Irish War Cry, the speedster, who won
    both of his sprints as a juvenile, including a minor stakes at Laurel
    before getting loose on the lead and going wire-to-wire in the
    Grade II, Holy Bull held at Gulfstream, breezing over the juvenile
    champ Classic Empire (this Derby’s odds-on favorite). Holy Bull
    was his first start this year, wherein he controlled a moderate pace.
    His Wood Memorial victory was even greater as he cruised early
    and then went in the middle stages to take on a very strong pace.

    Irish War Cry got the same 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the Wood
    that he made in the Holy Bull; most noteworthy b/c the 20 horses
    in this Derby-field combined for 129 career starts and yet earned
    only four triple-digit Beyers — Irish War Cry’s got two of them !!

    Only four triple-digit Beyers to be found in last year’s Derby field.
    Nyquist & Exaggerator had 1 each => they hit the board one-two.

    8 horses in 2015’s Derby field ran 16 triple-digit Beyers.
    American Pharoah owned four of those himself, dominating that
    Kentucky Derby. It stands to reason speed matters, but it isn’t all.


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    Sheer clout and friends in high places can mean most. For 5 years,
    Graham Motion has been training horses belonging to octogenarian
    sisters Isabelle de Tomaso and Hope Haskell Jones at his Maryland-
    based Herringswell Stables.

    Richie-rich horse-racing lineage: They’re daughters of Amory Haskell
    — legendary figure in New Jersey racing who built Monmouth Park
    and was the president of its Jockey Club until his death in 1966.
    His namesake race, Haskell Invitational, boasts a million-dollar purse,
    and is thee premiere race on the New Jersey thoroughbred calendar.

    Horse-racing-heiresses matter in the Jockey Club and in the Paddock.
    To these owners, the Derby is NOT de MAX. More important to them
    is to get Irish War Cry into the Haskell Invitational on July 30th —
    For this very year will mark the race’s 50th annual running !!!
    And that’s just how great a horse Irish War Cry really is.

    On top of that, he’s been hidden on purpose: Motion decided to keep
    this New Jersey-bred son of Curlin away from the hustle and bustle
    of the Kentucky Derby media blitz, training him at his Fair Hills base
    in Maryland. There he completed his major work on Sunday, April 30
    with jock Maragh aboard, racing a full 6 panels in blistering 1:13 1/5
    = meaning he won’t have an official workout over the course
    before the Kentucky Derby race is run. Sweet !!!


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    Now in 2017 he did win again – unbelievable.
    9 straight w/ his pick ALWAYS DREAMING
    — Jody Demling, has now won 9 straight doubles =>
    That means he’s won his bet picking the winners of
    both Friday’s Kentucky Oaks coupled with Saturday’s
    143rd running of the Kentucky Derby
    in each of the past 9 years.
    It’s true, he just can’t lose.


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    Haskell coming pretty soon tho’…


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    [caption id="" align="alignnone" width="530"]Tote-board for the 143rd Derby Wheel the #1 horse (he’s a Mudder, too)[/caption]



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