Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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  • #453421

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    [B][I]Tech Trends – Week 10
    November 7, 2017[/I][/B]

    [B]THURSDAY, NOV. 9

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    [/B]
    SEATTLE at ARIZONA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Road team has covered last five in series. Cards only 2-6 vs. line this season, also “under” 5-2. Hawks have covered four straight vs. Cards at Glendale.
    Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team and series trends.

    [B]SUNDAY, NOV. 12

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups

    MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Skins 1-5 vs. spread last six at FedEx Field. Jay Gruden on 22-7 “over” run since late 2015. Vikes have covered last three TY and “over” 8-4 since late 2016.
    Tech Edge: “Over” and Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    GREEN BAY at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Bears 4-0 vs. line with Trubisky at QB, also “under” 6-2 TY. Pack no covers first three with Hundley at QB (counts Minn. loss).
    Tech Edge: Bears and slight to “under,” based on recent team and “totals” trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Steel have now won and covered last three since Jags loss, also “under” 7-1 this season. Steel now “under” 21-7 since late 2015. Steel 8-5 last 13 as road chalk.
    Tech Edge: Steel and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    L.A. CHARGERS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    If Bolts dog, note 23-12-1 mark in role on road since 2012. Jags also “over” 8-3 last ten at home.
    Tech Edge: Chargers, especially if dog, and slight to “over” based on team and “totals” trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    N.Y. JETS at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Jets 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven on board! Bucs skidding 0-6 vs. spread TY, 1-8-1 since late 2016.
    Tech Edge: Jets, based on recent trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    CINCINNATI at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Titans on 18-8-1 “over” run since late 2015. Also 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight at Nashville. Bengals 8-16 vs. spread since last season, 1-6 last six as road dog.
    Tech Edge: Titans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    NEW ORLEANS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Saints have won last six SU, 5-1 vs. line in those. “Over” 33-23 since 2015. Bills 5-2-1 vs. spread TY.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Saints and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    CLEVELAND at DETROIT (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Browns 2-6 vs. line TY, 6-18 vs. spread since LY. Cleveland 8-26-1 last 35 since mid 2015, and has failed to cover last two years off of a their bye.
    Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on Browns woes.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    HOUSTON at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Not quite the same minus Deshaun, so downplaying some of the recent Houston angles especially the 3-0 vs. line away TY! Rams “over” 6-2 TY though only 1-2 vs. line at Coliseum TY, 1-7-1 last 9 vs. spread at home.
    Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    DALLAS at ATLANTA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Cowboys have covered their last three away TY. Falcs just 1-2 vs. points in new Mercedes Benz Stadium and only 4-4 vs. points last 8 as host.
    Tech Edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.

    [B]NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    N.Y. GIANTS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Niners 2-9 vs. spread last eleven at Levi’s, while G-Men have covered their last three on road.
    Tech Edge: Eli, based on team trends.

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
    [B]NEW ENGLAND at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Home team had covered seven straight in this series prior to NE’s 16-3 win in Denver when Broncs were fading late LY. Belichick now 8-2 vs. line last 10 as visiting chalk. Broncs 3-8-1 vs. line since late LY. Belichick “under” 7-3-1 last 11 as visitor.
    Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

    [B]MONDAY, NOV. 13

    NFL Matchups NFL Matchups[/B]

    [B]MIAMI at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)[/B]
    Miami “under” 5-2 in 2017. Cam “under” 8-4 at home since LY (1-2 TY). Cam 0-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 vs. spread last ten as host.
    Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.

    #454298

    cnotes
    Member
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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 10

    Thursday, November 9

    ——————————————————————————–

    SEATTLE (5 – 3) at ARIZONA (4 – 4) – 11/9/2017, 8:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    NFL

    Week 10

    ————————————————————————————————————————
    Trend Report
    ————————————————————————————————————————

    Thursday, November 9

    SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona’s last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona’s last 13 games when playing at home against Seattle

    ———————————–

    NFL’s biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
    Monty Andrews

    Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)

    Seahawks’ lack of discipine vs. Cardinals’ ability to draw flags

    The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West – shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks – and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

    Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games – nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks’ 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they’re a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend’s 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

    Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags – tied with Miami for the most in the league – for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona’s plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL – and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

    ————————————–

    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 10

    Thursday, November 9

    Seattle @ Arizona

    Game 111-112
    November 9, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    135.686
    Arizona
    126.665
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 9
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 5 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-5 1/2); Over

    ——————————————-

    [B][I]NFL
    Armadillo’s Write-Up

    Week 10

    Thursday’s game[/I][/B]

    Seahawks (5-3) @ Cardinals (4-4)— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) in 17-14 home loss to Redskins, Brown’s first game as their new LT; they outgained Skins 437-244, but committed 16 penalties for 138 yards- they’ve been penalized 358 yards in last three games. Seahawks are 2-2 on road, 1-0 as road favorite- they’ve held six of eight foes to 18 or less points. Arizona is 0-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Dallas by 11. Road teams are 4-0-1 in last five series games; Seattle is 3-0-1 in last four visits here, holding Arizona to 6 points in each of last three- teams tied 6-6 here in an ugly game LY. Six of last seven Arizona games, three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

    ——————————————–

    [B][SIZE=”5″]NFL[/SIZE]

    [b]Thursday, November 9[/b][/B]

    ————————————————————————————————————————
    [size=”3″][I][B] Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Seahawks at Cardinals [/B][/I][/size]
    ————————————————————————————————————————

    [B]Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6, 41)[/B]

    The Seattle Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed field-goal attempts and a season-high 16 penalties. Speaking of ties, the Seahawks return to the site of a rare draw last season when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday.

    “Yeah, it’s a great challenge, obviously, for Thursday night games. … I think the biggest thing is the preparation part of it,” Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight week and fifth time in six games in Sunday’s 17-14 loss to Washington, told reporters. The 28-year-old tossed four scoring strikes in a 34-31 setback against Arizona last season on Christmas Eve after both teams were limited to field goals in a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23, 2016. Adrian Peterson was not a member of the Cardinals for those contests, but the 32-year-old is making up for lost time in a hurry with a career-high 37 rushes for 159 yards in Sunday’s 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco. When asked what type of workload is expected for Peterson on the short week, Arizona coach Bruce Arians told reporters, “I would think the same as last week. … I wouldn’t challenge him in any form or fashion by saying, ‘You’re only going to get 20 (carries)’ because I’d probably have to fight him on the sideline.”
    [B]
    TV:[/B] 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.
    [B]
    LINE HISTORY:[/B] The Seahawks opened as five-point road favorites and by Wednesday that number was bumped up to 6 points. The total hit betting boards at 42.5 and has been bet down to 41.
    [B]
    POWER RANKINGS:[/B] Seahawks (-2.5) – Cardinals (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -2.
    [B]
    INJURY REPORT:[/B]

    Seahawks – TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), DE Dion Jordan (Probable, Knee), CB Jeremy Lane (Probable, Thigh), G Germain Ifedi (Probable, Finger), DE Michael Bennett (Probable, Heel), G Oday Aboushi (Probable, Shoulder), WR Tyler Lockett (Probable, Shoulder), RB C.J. Prosise (Probable, Ankle), DT Sheldon Richardson (Questionable, Oblique), WR Paul Richardson (Questionable, Groin), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Ankle), S Earl Thomas (Doubtful, Hamstring), DE Marcus Smith (Out, Concussion), RB Eddie Lacy (Out, Groin), G Luke Joeckel (Out, Knee), G Rees Odhiambo (I-R, Hand), FB Tre Madden (I-R, Calf), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (Questionable, Concussion), DE Cliff Avril (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Carson (I-R, Knee), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee), T George Fant (I-R, Knee), CB DeAndre Elliott (I-R, Ankle).

    Cardinals – DL Frostee Rucker (Probable, Shin), LB Karlos Dansby (Probable, Finger), S Budda Baker (Probable, Ankle), WR Chad Williams (Questionable, Back), WR Brittan Golden (Questionable, Groin), RB T.J. Logan (Questionable, Wrist), C Daniel Munyer (I-R, Toe), RB David Johnson (I-R, Wrist), QB Carson Palmer (Out, Arm), LS Aaron Brewer (Out, Hand), LB Markus Golden (I-R, Knee), G Mike Iupati (Out, Tricep), CB Ronald Zamort (I-R, Knee).
    [B]
    ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U):[/B] Blair Walsh had reason to hang his head after missing field-goal attempts of 44, 39 and 49 yards versus the Redskins, but coach Pete Carroll didn’t want those misfires to lead to the 27-year-old kicker worrying about his job security. “I’m concerned that he had trouble in this game,” Carroll said on his 710 ESPN Seattle radio show. “I don’t think that that has to do with anything (on Thursday). We’ll find out. We’ll see him come on back.” Doug Baldwin, who made a career-best 13 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown in the last encounter with Arizona, has 22 receptions on 34 targets for 254 yards and two scores over his last three games.
    [B]
    ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U):[/B] Drew Stanton traditionally has stepped up when called upon, and the 33-year-old did precisely that by extending his winning streak to four starts – albeit spread over nearly three years – by tossing two touchdown passes versus the 49ers. “When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys,” Arians told reporters. “They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up.” J.J. Nelson rolled up 132 receiving yards in his last encounter with Seattle but has made just three catches for 54 yards in his last three overall games.
    [B]
    TRENDS:[/B]

    * Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
    * Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
    * Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
    * Under is 12-3 in Cardinals last 15 home games.
    * Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Arizona.
    [B]
    CONSENSUS:[/B] The public is siding with the road fave Seahawks at a rate of 55 percent and the Under is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.

    ————————————————————————————————————————

    #454301

    cnotes
    Member
    • Author

    [B][I]Thursday’s Best Bet
    November 8, 2017
    [/I][/B]
    [B]Thursday Night Football – Week 10
    Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals[/B]

    For the second straight week we’ve got a NFL Week opening up with a divisional matchup on TNF. This week it’s a NFC West showdown between the Seahawks and Cardinals, as both teams find themselves in the surprising position of looking up at the L.A. Rams in the standings.

    Seattle’s the more likely of the two to catch L.A. by season’s end for a variety of reasons, but if the Seahawks lose outright as road favorites in this game, that task get’s a lot tougher. Let’s get right to the breakdown:

    [B][I]Sportsbetting.ag Odds: Seattle (-5.5); Total set at 41[/I][/B]

    This is the first of two meetings this year between these two rivals, with the rematch coming in Week 17 in the Pacific Northwest. Who knows what will end up being at stake – if anything – by the time that game arrives, but this Week 10 opener could end up being the beginning of the end of the loser’s playoff hopes. That statement is directed more at the Cardinals, but after the slew of injuries Arizona has dealt with at key positions this year already (QB Carson Palmer, RB David Johnson), internally they can’t really like their chances overall this year.

    That’s not to say the guys that are left suiting up in red and white won’t give it their all in this game, and with Arizona finding a running game again with RB Adrian Peterson trying to turn back the clock, Arizona could end up being a feisty home dog on a short week.

    The side on this game has already seen a bit of big action come the Cardinals way as this point spread opened up in the -6/-6.5 range. Despite VegasInsider.com’s betting percentage numbers showing about 75% of the bets coming on the Seattle side, that’s a significant move in favor of the home team, as bettors have seen three straight TNF games won SU and ATS by the home side.

    Seattle’s struggles a week ago at home vs. Washington hurts the perspective many have on this Seahawks team as well, but I’d venture a guess that Seattle’s best football this year is still ahead of them.

    Although travelling on a short week hasn’t worked out well for visitors of late, I don’t know how you can really get excited about the Cardinals either on just three days rest. Arizona hasn’t really looked good on the whole in any of their eight games this year and the 4-4 SU record they do have looks like nothing but smoke and mirrors when you dig into it.

    There was a 16-13 OT win over a very bad Colts team in Week 2, an 18-15 OT win over San Francisco two weeks later, a 38-33 win over a Tampa Bay team that’s not nearly as good as everyone initially believed, and a 20-10 win over San Francisco again last week with the 49ers giving a rookie QB his 2nd career start. That’s four victories over three different teams with a combined 5-21 SU record this year.

    Three of those four wins also came when backup QB’s either starter or were brought in very early (Tampa), and the lone “starter” to fall to the Cardinals was QB Brian Hoyer in that first San Francisco game and he’s not even with the 49ers anymore; he’s a backup in New England now!

    Those ATS marks for Indy, San Fran, and Tampa isn’t much better either at 10-15-1 ATS with half of those ATS wins coming by the Indianpolis Colts who have been catching big numbers all year long. Seattle has just as many SU wins as those three teams combined, and did I mention that the Cardinals are starting backup QB Drew Stanton too.

    Stanton is a guy the Cardinals don’t have complete faith in to win for them with his arm as evidenced by the 37 times he handed it off to Peterson a week ago. Peterson isn’t a spring chicken anymore either so just three days off after that kind of workload does him no favors either. If that ends up being the case, now Stanton has to go out there and try to win it with his arm against a Seattle secondary that’s still one of the best in the league and a little pissed off with the lack of offensive support they got from their teammates last week. If all that doesn’t sound like a recipe for disaster for the Cardinals in this spot, I’m not sure what does.

    So although the Seahawks are considered the “public” play for this game, I believe it’s got to be Seattle or nothing, especially with the spread now below that 6-point threshold. Seattle is on a 6-1 ATS run off a loss when facing a NFC West rival, and 8-2 ATS overall after their last 10 outright defeats. Throw in a 7-0 ATS run on TNF and Pete Carroll’s bunch seem to know how to deal with short week’s in today’s NFL.

    The Seahawks know they are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture entering this week, and while a lot will definitely change, a game like this against a banged up Cardinals team with minimal weapons and a backup QB is not one they can afford to lose. Russell Wilson and Seattle’s offense will be a lot sharper in ideal conditions compared to the rainy downpour they played in at home a week ago, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them bury this Cardinals team early on and let the “Legion of Boom” carry them home late to a double-digit victory.

    [B]Odds per – Sportsbetting.ag

    Best Bet: Seattle -5.5[/B]

    #454302

    cnotes
    Member
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    [B][I]TNF – Seahawks at Cardinals
    November 8, 2017
    [/I][/B]
    [B]Seattle (-6, 41) at Arizona – (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET)[/B]

    Last week’s trade for All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown was appropriately greeted with hopeful enthusiasm in Seattle. Although it cost them a 2019 second-rounder and a third and a fifth-round pick in the next draft, players, team officials and fans would’ve stopped just short of dealing their first-born in exchange for some help up front.

    Ever since projected left tackle George Fant was lost in the preseason, the Seahawks have been fighting an uphill battle as they’ve looked to protect Russell Wilson. Despite wins in five of seven, the offense looked compromised, so being able to plug that hole with an elite option who hadn’t even put on a lot of miles this season due to a well-publicized holdout that spilled into the season was more than fortunate.

    You would’ve imagined the improvement would’ve been immediate given the upgrade, but someone didn’t give head coach Pete Caroll and oft-maligned offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell the memo. In fairness, the improvement up front wasn’t instant, so Wilson was indeed pressured often, but the game plan was typically conservative outside of a gadget play or wrinkle or two. So it was that the depleted ‘Skins managed to hop on their cross-country fresh off a 17-14 comeback win engineered by Kirk Cousins.

    Give him all the credit for walking through a door the Seahawks left open via inconsistent offense, but the fact that he solved an Earl Thomas-less defense by driving his team down the field rather quickly through the air in the closing stages means Seattle enters this one with all players feeling the burden of pulling their weight as they open the second half of the season looking up at a Rams team they’ve already beaten in L.A. and will host on Dec. 17.

    It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks handle this road test against the desperate Cardinals in a stadium where they haven’t lost since 2012. Last year’s game in Glendale produced an ugly 6-6 tie, which begs the question of whether we’ll see another low-scoring game where Carroll-led Seattle attempts to stall until the other team makes a mistake. We’ve seen this group play down to their opponent’s level in a 12-9 win over lowly San Francisco, which is what you have to weigh when considering laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a team solely interested in the result, not the style points.

    The temptation will certainly be there since the Seahawks are likely coming into this one under the assumption that backup Drew Stanton can’t beat them. Although he was effective in his first start in last week’s 20-10 road win over the 49ers that Arizona never trailed in, Stanton is a career backup for a reason and doesn’t appear to pose much of a threat against one of the NFL’s elite defenses. Adrian Peterson has adjusted well to being the focal point of an offense again and brings relatively fresh legs to the table, but he’s coming off a 37-carry game on Sunday. The prospect of him having to carry another heavy workload in a short week situation makes my knees hurt in sympathy for his surgically repaired ones.

    The 32-year-old Peterson has only carried the ball 30-plus times in consecutive games only once in his career, but he told reporters in Arizona that he felt “fresh and rejuvenated, ready to roll.” The plan is for the run game to be Stanton’s best friend here, as keepin the ball out of the air appears to be a priority.

    Despite losing QB Carson Palmer for the remainder of the season and not expecting All-Pro RB David Johnson back, the Cards have been rejuvenated by Peterson’s arrival and a return to health from a Larry Fitzgerald-led receiving corps that’s healthier than it has been all season. Arizona begins a stretch of four home games in five outings that will realistically decide whether it factors into the playoff race in an injury-plagued season that will end in Seattle on Dec. 31.

    Seattle Seahawks
    Season win total: 10.5 (Over -130, Under +110)
    Odds to win NFC West: 1/3 to 10/11
    Odds to win NFC: 7/2 to 6/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 8/1 to 12/1

    Arizona Cardinals
    Season win total: 8.5 (Over -160, Under +140)
    Odds to win NFC West: 80/1 to 30/1
    Odds to win NFC: 150/1 to 100/1
    Odds to win Super Bowl: 300/1 to 200/1

    [B]LINE MOVEMENT[/B]

    Seattle’s loss to Washington, combined with the Rams’ dominant effort against the Giants, have made it close to an even-money pick to win the NFC West after opening the regular season a 1-to-3 bet. Before the upset, Westgate had those same odds for them before adjusting. The Cardinals were 3-to-1 to start the season and went from 80-to-1 to 30-to-1 after beating the 49ers. See the chart above to monitor the movement from Week 9 to the latest update for Week 10 released Tuesday.

    Seattle was 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl and 8-to-1 to win the NFC before the season began, so they’ve been kept in that same vicinity despite the inconsistent start. If they win this game, expect a less lucrative figure entering their Monday night home date with the Falcons on Nov. 20.

    As far as this matchup is concerned, Seattle was a 7-point favorite when early numbers were released by Westgate last Tuesday, opened at 6 this week and had dipped to as low 5 at CG Technology before heading back in the 5.5-to-6 range. The total opened at 43 at most spots but had been bet down to 41 as of Wednesday evening as the expectation that both teams utilize a conservative, run-heavy approach intensifies.

    [B]ODDSMAKER’S TAKE[/B]

    Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu conveyed what his shop is seeing as of Wednesday.

    “The wiseguys have faded Seattle regularly this season, for good reason, and they’ve gone back to the well here for the most part. Currently, we have more than 70 percent of the tickets on the Seahawks, but the money handle favors Arizona 60-40 so the big bets are on the home side,” Cooley said. “The under is a popular sharp play as well with 65 percent of the action there.”

    [B]INJURY CONCERNS[/B]

    RB Eddie Lacy has been ruled out due to a groin injury, so Thomas Rawls is expected to get the bulk of the work. Due to a short week, there are a lot of players who didn’t participate in practices and are therefore considered questionable, but the Seahawks are considering star safety Earl Thomas and DE Marcus Smith doubtful. Other big names like TE Jimmy Graham, WR Paul Richardson, G Rees Odhiambo and DT Sheldon Richardson are also question marks.

    The Cardinals are much healthier outside of the aforementioned big names they’ve lost for the season, which also include LB Markus Golden and G Mike Iupati, but having welcomed back the likes of Tyrell Mathieu, Deone Bucannon, Frostee Rucker and Robert Nkemdiche in recent weeks, the defense is healthier than it has been in weeks.
    [B]
    RECENT MEETINGS (Seattle 5-3-1 SU, 6-4 ATS last nine; OVER 5-4)[/B]

    12/24/16 Cardinals 34-31 vs. Seahawks (AZ +9, 43.5)
    10/23/16 Seahawks 6-6 at Cardinals (SEA +2.5, 43)
    1/3/16 Seahawks 36-6 at Cardinals (SEA +6.5, 47)
    11/15/15 Cardinals 39-32 at Seahawks (AZ +3, 44.5)
    12/21/14 Seahawks 35-6 at Cardinals (SEA -9, 36)
    11/23/14 Seahawks 19-3 vs. Cardinals (SEA -7, 41)
    12/22/13 Cardinals 17-10 at Seahawks (AZ +9, 42.5)
    10/17/13 Seahawks 34-22 at Cardinals (SEA -4.5, 41)
    12/9/12 Seahawks 58-0 vs. Cardinals (SEA -10, 36)

    #454303

    cnotes
    Member
    • Author

    [B][I]Thursday’s Top Props
    November 8, 2017[/I][/B]

    If you’re looking for a little side hustle on the weekend, and the NFL is your jam, then you have to check out our weekly NFL player props for the Thursday Night Football matchup. Inside we provide you a chance to bet on things like quarterback interceptions, sacks, total passing yards and many more.

    It’s a great way to boost the entertainment factor of the Thursday Night game. Here are three of my favorite takes.

    [B]TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS THROWN (O/U ½ INT’s for Stanton, Wilson)[/B]

    Both quarterbacks in Thursday Night Football are relatively mistake prone. For Drew Stanton you’re getting a value of -210 for him to throw a pick, which seems like guaranteed money considering that he’s already thrown 2 picks in two games against lesser secondaries. It’s worth noting that the Seahawks will be resting Earl Thomas again to give him some time to heal that bum hamstring.

    As for Wilson, it’s simply a volume play. He’s been extremely busy in terms of attempts, notching 45, 41 and 39 in the last three games alone. He’s also thrown three picks over that stretch. You’re getting a -120 value that he throws a pick in this game and that might be worth taking considering that the one thing Arizona has going for them defensively is a strong rush defence.

    [B]TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS FOR DOUG BALDWIN (O/U 72.5 Yards)[/B]

    Baldwin has been a typical menace all season and it’s incredibly likely that he continues his recent spree considering that guys like Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson are both out this Thursday. Baldwin has averaged 67.3 receiving yards per game, and Wilson always has eyes for him.

    The caveat, of course, is that Patrick Peterson is involved in this game. That’s not a huge concern as the Cardinals like to keep Patterson on the opposition’s No.2 receiver and they prefer to double the top pass catcher instead with a safety overtop. Why that usually doesn’t work against the Seahawks is because Russell Wilson and Baldwin are excellent on broken plays. Their chemistry is just surreal.

    Baldwin notched 171 yards on 13 receptions in their last meeting, and also went for 69 receiving yards in their first encounter in 2016 during a 6-6 tie. The Seahawks are still humming even after a loss to Washington and Baldwin is the engine. Rev him up at -110 in the OVER on 72.5 receiving yards.

    [B]FIRST PLAYER TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN[/B]

    By far this is one of the best NFL player prop markets to spend money on. Let’s take a look at who we’ve got, and remember that the player has to score the touchdown. If Russell Wilson passes to Luke Wilson, then Wilson is the guy that scores the touchdown, not Wilson. If Russell Wilson rushes for the score, then it’s his. Get it? Got it? Good.

    The best offensive player to score a touchdown has to be either Baldwin on the Seahawks or Adrian Peterson on the Cardinals. Those make the most sense. But the best value is by far the Seattle defence at +2000. With Drew Stanton at quarterback, anything is possible.

    A great strategy is to sprinkle some money on some key players. Seattle’s D/ST, Baldwin and Peterson remain the bets to lean on for obvious reasons.

    #454415

    cnotes
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    [B]THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS[/B]

    SEA at ARI 08:25 PM

    [B]ARI +6.0 *****

    U 40.5 *****[/B]

    #454497

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Cardinals stumble in 22-16 loss to Seahawks
    November 10, 2017[/I][/B]

    GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) The Arizona Cardinals beat NFC West rival San Francisco last week with a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson.

    When the Cardinals were unable to spring Peterson against another NFC West opponent, they turned to the air.

    Forty-seven passes from Drew Stanton was not enough, particularly with all the dropped passes by his receivers.

    Arizona struggled to run effectively, fumbled twice and its defense gave up one crucial big play late, leading to a 22-16 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night.

    ”We knew it would come down to a game of big plays and we didn’t make enough,” Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said.

    The Cardinals (4-5) bounced back from an ugly loss to the Los Angeles Rams by riding Peterson heavily in a 20-10 victory over the San Francisco 49ers last week.

    Peterson ran a career-high 37 times for 159 yards against the 49ers, but was ineffective against Seattle’s imposing defense.

    He fumbled on Arizona’s first play from scrimmage and was tackled in the end zone for a safety – both plays made by Seattle safety Kam Chancellor. Peterson finished with 29 yards on 21 carries.

    It wasn’t all his fault.

    Arizona’s offensive line was outmatched by Seattle’s front in the run game most of the night, unable to give Peterson many lanes to run through. The Cardinals also lost starting left tackle D.J. Humphries to a right knee injury in the first quarter, exacerbating their ineffectiveness.

    ”We just weren’t able to get much going,” Cardinals right tackle Jared Veldheer said.

    Drew Stanton, making his second start in place of injured Carson Palmer, played well at times, but got little help. He threw for 273 yards and a touchdown on 24-of-47 passing, a night that would have been better had the Cardinals not dropped at least five passes. Larry Fitzgerald had 10 catches for 113 yards for the Cardinals.

    ”We knew it was going to be a dogfight, it’s like that all the time,” Stanton said. ”There’s no surprises in this game and unfortunately we didn’t get the ball rolling. I didn’t do a good enough job of keeping in third downs, converting those, and keeping us rolling.”

    Andre Ellington also lost a fumble without being hit – the ground caused it – on a catch that would have put the Cardinals in field-goal range just before halftime. Russell Wilson hit Paul Richardson on a 43-yard pass on the next play and Blair Walsh kicked his second field goal in the closing seconds, a 43-yarder that put Seattle up 15-7 at halftime.

    Arizona’s defense shut down Seattle’s run game and pressured Wilson all night, sacking him five times. The Cardinals had a hard time corralling him on one play with the game close in the fourth quarter, when Wilson weaved his way around two rushers twice, threw up a ball up for grabs and completed a 54-yard pass to Doug Baldwin.

    ”Obviously, Russell made a great play when he was trying to throw it out of bounds and that was probably the deciding factor in the game,” Arians said.

    Wilson’s scramble and completion set the Seattle up for his second touchdown pass, 2 yards to tight end Jimmy Graham to put the Seahawks (6-3) up 22-10. Wilson also threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Graham in the first quarter, finishing the night with 238 yards on 22-of-32 passing.

    #454498

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    [B][I]Seattle’s Sherman ruptures Achilles’ tendon against Arizona
    November 10, 2017[/I][/B]

    GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Seattle Seahawks All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman is out for the season after rupturing his right Achilles’ tendon against the Arizona Cardinals Thursday night.

    Sherman had been bothered by a sore Achilles’ tendon all season and went down while trying intercept a pass in third quarter of Seattle’s 22-16 win. He lay on the field clutching his right heel before limping off the field to the bench, where he appeared to tell teammates he had torn the tendon.

    Coach Pete Carroll said Sherman will have surgery after the swelling goes down.

    One of the game’s best cornerbacks during his seven NFL seasons, Sherman had a pair of interceptions and 31 tackles heading into Thursday night’s game.

    ——————————

    [B][I]Seahawks’ Prosise exits due to ankle injury
    November 9, 2017[/I][/B]

    GLENDALE, Ariz. — The Seattle Seahawks lost running back C.J. Prosise to an ankle injury in the third quarter of their Thursday night game against the Arizona Cardinals, and he was ruled out for the rest of the night.

    Prosise left after gaining 3 yards on three carries. Thomas Rawls has been getting the brunt of the work for Seattle in the running game.

    ——————————–

    [B][I]Seahawks’ Reed leaves with hamstring injury
    November 9, 2017
    [/I][/B]
    GLENDALE, Ariz. — The Seattle Seahawks lost defensive tackle Jarran Reed to a hamstring injury in the first quarter of their Thursday night game against the Arizona Cardinals.

    Reed was injured during Arizona’s second possession of the game, and the Seahawks announced that he would not return.

    Entering play Thursday, Reed had 1.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one pass defensed this season.

    #454499

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Friday’s six-pack[/I][/B]

    More NFL trends with Week 10 upon us:

    — Denver covered four of last five tries as a home underdog.

    — Falcons are 5-16 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.

    — Chicago is 2-6-1 vs spread coming off its last nine byes.

    — Jets are 6-0-1 vs spread in their last seven games.

    — Detroit is 9-4-1 vs spread in last tries as a home favorite.

    — Cincinnati is 8-17 vs spread in its last 25 games

    **************************

    [B][I]Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here…….
    [/I][/B]
    13) I’m tired of writing about lawyers; Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension finally kicks in this week- he is out for the Cowboys’ next six games, which are against:

    Atlanta-Eagles-Chargers-Redskins-Giants-Raiders.

    Dallas is 5-3, currently tied for the second Wild Card spot in the NFC.

    12) Interesting article on CBSSports.com Thursday about North Carolina’s Theo Pinson, a senior who is the only top 15 recruit from the Class of 2014 who is still in college.

    12 of the other 14 went to the NBA one year after graduating high school; one other played two years of college, another played three years of college.

    11) Baseball’s offseason will be fascinating, but what I don’t want to read are articles where the author guesses what will happen. Let us know when real news occurs.

    10) 149 ballplayers became free agents this week; they don’t have to file for free agency anymore. Players can start negotiating with other teams next week; they can negotiate with the current team from now until Tuesday.

    9) Jeff Van Gundy was saying on ESPN the other night that NBA games are being officiated much better this season than in previous years. Interesting comment- the flow of games is a lot better, this I know from watching games on League Pass every night.

    8) Free agent OF Jay Bruce will be asking for a 5-year deal in the $80-90M range; sounds like agent Scott Boras might ask for a $200M deal for free agent OF JD Martinez.

    7) Lonzo Ball is struggling with his shooting; he is 11-47 outside the arc (23.4%), 24-70 inside the arc (34.3%), 7-13 on the foul line. Not good.

    Ball shot 41.2% behind the (college) arc last year at UCLA, he shot 67.3% on the foul line. Still think he’s going to be a very good NBA player, but the shooting does need to improve.

    6) Duke’s pre-conference schedule is a little shaky; they play Michigan State in Chicago, and they go to Indiana in the ACC/Big 14 Challenge, but other than that, here is who they play:

    Elon-Utah Valley-Michigan State-Southern-Furman-Portland St-Indiana-South Dakota, St Francis, not exactly a murderer’s row of a pre-conference schedule.

    5) The night Wilt Chamberlain scored 100 points for the Philadelphia Warriors in 1962, former Golden State coach Al Attles scored 17 points, the next-highest amount for the Warriors. Attles is 81 years old now and was at the Minnesota-Golden State game in Oakland Wednesday.

    4) Sounds like the Bulls will likely choose Bobby Portis over Nikola Mirotic when it comes to getting rid of one of the two players who got into a fight in practice, which resulted in Mirotic breaking his cheekbone. Problem is, Bulls can’t trade Mirotic until Jan 15, and he is expected to be ready to play before then, so much like Eric Bledsoe with the Suns, Mirotic is likely to sit idle for a while after he is healthy, until he can be traded.

    3) Wisconsin’s leading WR, Quintez Cephus is done for the season with a right leg injury. Cephus has caught 30 passes for 501 yards and six touchdowns this season.

    2) Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16– Arizona scored TD in last 2:00 but PAT was blocked, so spread pushed. Seattle is now 6-3 and half-game behind Rams in NFC West. Cardinals are 4-5 and in deep trouble with an aging roster- they have 11 players who are older than Rams’ coach Sean McVay.

    1) RIP to the great actor John Hillerman 84, who passed away Thursday in Houston. The son of a gas station owner, Hillerman appeared in movies like Chinatown and Blazing Saddles, but is best known for playing Jonathan Higgins, major domo of the estate in Magnum, PI. He was nominated for four Emmy awards for playing Higgins— he won one in 1987.

    RIP, sir.

    #454500

    cnotes
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    [SIZE=4][COLOR=”#A52A2A”][B]NFL opening line report: Early sharp action on Bills as home dogs in Week 10[/B][/COLOR][/SIZE]
    Patrick Everson

    The marquee matchup of Week 10 in the NFL features two teams that should be of playoff caliber, but only one actually playing that way right now. Covers takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

    [B]Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (no line)[/B]

    Defending NFC champion Atlanta won its first three games SU, but hasn’t looked good since then. The Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) are on a 1-4 SU skid, failing to cash in all five of those games. In Week 9, Atlanta had another lackluster offensive effort, unable to score in the middle two quarters of a 20-17 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite.

    Dallas has won three in a row SU and ATS to get its season back on track. The Cowboys (5-3 SU and ATS) dispatched Kansas City 28-17 Sunday as a 2.5-point home chalk.

    Bookmaker.eu is sitting tight on a line for this game, as the Ezekiel Elliott suspended/not suspended chronicles continue this week.

    “It feels like the Cowboys are finally catching their stride offensively, and the defense looked like a different, competent unit against Kansas City,” Cooley said. “That said, we have to wait to see what the next chapter is in the Ezekiel Elliott saga, because he certainly is worth something to the line. If he is ultimately suspended, Dallas will be a short underdog at Atlanta.”

    [B]New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7)[/B]

    New England is tied for the best record in the AFC and coming off its bye week. The Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won four straight (3-1 ATS), including a 21-13 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers giving 6.5 points in Week 8.

    Denver is a hot mess at quarterback, and even its normally reliable defense struggled in Week 9. The Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) got trampled at Philadelphia, 51-23 as a 7-point underdog.

    “Denver is in one of those situations where one side has given up because the other side isn’t performing,” Cooley said. “The offense is a mess, and there doesn’t seem to be a solution in sight. That said, you have to expect one of the Broncos’ best efforts here on Sunday night. This spread will likely head north, but there will be some value players on the home ‘dog with backs against the wall.”

    [B]Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+2.5)[/B]

    Minnesota has a third-string quarterback and a first-place record heading into Week 10. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), behind Case Keenum, have won four in a row and five of six, rolling past Cleveland 33-16 as an 11-point favorite in Week 8 before getting a bye this past week.

    Washington (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a two-game SU and four-game ATS slide in Week 9. The Redskins got a late touchdown to upset Seattle 17-14 getting 8 points on the road.

    “Early sharp action came in on the Redskins, knocking this down to +2 quickly,” Cooley said. “Hats go off to Jay Gruden and his staff for staying competitive amid all of the injuries. It will be interesting to see if that ragtag offensive line can hold up against one of the best defenses in the league.”

    [B]New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)[/B]

    New Orleans has to be among the bigger surprises this season. The Saints (6-2 SU and ATS) have won six in a row, covering every time after an 0-2 SU and ATS start. In Week 9, Drew Brees and Co. rolled Tampa Bay 30-10 as a 7-point chalk.

    Buffalo (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) went to MetLife Stadium last Thursday night as a 3-point favorite against the New York Jets. But the Bills left with a 34-21 outright loss.

    “Everyone is back on the Saints’ wagon with the win streak continuing, but we’re still just not sold on this team being completely turned around from what it’s been in recent years,” Cooley said. “The Buffalo offense will have a new weapon on display, and it feels like this spread should be closer to a pick ‘em. Early smart money was on the Bills.”

    That money quickly moved Buffalo to +2.

    #454501

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    [B]NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 10[/B]

    [b]Sunday, November 12[/b]

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]MINNESOTA (6 – 2) at WASHINGTON (4 – 4) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
    MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
    WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
    WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]GREEN BAY (4 – 4) at CHICAGO (3 – 5) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    GREEN BAY is 183-130 ATS (+40.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
    3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]PITTSBURGH (6 – 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 – 6) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]LA CHARGERS (3 – 5) at JACKSONVILLE (5 – 3) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    LA CHARGERS is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 28-4 ATS (+23.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
    LA CHARGERS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    LA CHARGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    LA CHARGERS is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]NY JETS (4 – 5) at TAMPA BAY (2 – 6) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
    TAMPA BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
    TAMPA BAY is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]CINCINNATI (3 – 5) at TENNESSEE (5 – 3) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
    TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
    TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]NEW ORLEANS (6 – 2) at BUFFALO (5 – 3) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    BUFFALO is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ORLEANS is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
    NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]CLEVELAND (0 – 8) at DETROIT (4 – 4) – 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
    DETROIT is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
    DETROIT is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
    DETROIT is 131-172 ATS (-58.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]HOUSTON (3 – 5) at LA RAMS (6 – 2) – 11/12/2017, 4:05 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    HOUSTON is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 81-116 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 139-179 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 60-93 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
    LA RAMS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]DALLAS (5 – 3) at ATLANTA (4 – 4) – 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM [/B]
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]NY GIANTS (1 – 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 – 9) – 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    NY GIANTS are 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
    NY GIANTS are 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
    SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
    NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
    1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]NEW ENGLAND (6 – 2) at DENVER (3 – 5) – 11/12/2017, 8:30 PM [/B]
    Top Trends for this game.
    DENVER is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
    NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    DENVER is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

    ——————————————————————————–

    [b]Monday, November 13[/b]

    ——————————————————————————–

    [B]MIAMI (4 – 4) at CAROLINA (6 – 3) – 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM [/B]
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    #454502

    cnotes
    Member
    • Author

    [B]NFL

    Week 10

    ————————————————————————————————————————
    Trend Report
    ————————————————————————————————————————[/B]

    [b]Sunday, November 12[/b]

    [B]GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO[/B]
    Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
    Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
    Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
    Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

    [B]CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE[/B]
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
    Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
    Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee’s last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

    [B]NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO[/B]
    New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
    The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo’s last 12 games at home
    Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

    [B]CLEVELAND @ DETROIT[/B]
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games on the road
    The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland’s last 16 games
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games at home
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 6 games

    [B]PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS[/B]
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games on the road
    Pittsburgh is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

    [B]LA CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE[/B]
    LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
    The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville’s last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games at home

    [B]NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY[/B]
    NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 7 games when playing NY Jets

    [B]MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON[/B]
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing Washington
    Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing Minnesota
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games

    [B]HOUSTON @ LA RAMS[/B]
    The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games
    Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
    LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    [B]NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO[/B]
    NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
    NY Giants is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco’s last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
    San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against NY Giants

    [B]DALLAS @ ATLANTA[/B]
    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
    The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta’s last 14 games at home
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

    [B]NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER[/B]
    New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
    New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
    Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
    Denver is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against New England

    [b]Monday, November 13[/b]

    [B]MIAMI @ CAROLINA[/B]
    Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
    The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina’s last 5 games when playing Miami
    Carolina is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

    #454503

    cnotes
    Member
    • Author

    [SIZE=4][COLOR=”#A52A2A”][B]NFL’s biggest betting mismatches: Week 10[/B][/COLOR][/SIZE]
    Monty Andrews

    [B]Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)[/B]

    [I]Seahawks’ lack of discipine vs. Cardinals’ ability to draw flags[/I]

    The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West – shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks – and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

    Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games – nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks’ 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they’re a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend’s 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

    Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags – tied with Miami for the most in the league – for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona’s plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL – and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

    [B]Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 44)[/B]

    [I]Steelers’ potent pass rush vs. Colts’ poor QB protection[/I]

    The Pittsburgh Steelers are well-rested and ready to get back to their Super Bowl quest – and this week looks like a tasty matchup, as they’re giving away double-digit points to the Colts in Indianapolis. Pittsburgh reeled off three consecutive victories heading into its Week 9 bye, and rolls into Indiana facing a Colts team that just learned it will be without franchise quarterback Andrew Luck for the remainder of the season. Look for Pittsburgh’s pass rush to capitalize on an Indy O-line that ranks among the league’s worst.

    Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of pittsburgh’s offense has been up-and-down through the first half of the season, but the defense has been one of the league’s most consistently elite units in football. The Steelers come into Week 10 with 26 sacks; only Jacksonville, Carolina and Dallas have more. Pittsburgh has eight sacks during its three-game run, while the Steelers’ offensive line has surrendered just one sack over that same span.

    Heaven help the Colts, who will send Jacoby Brissett back under center this weekend. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been sacked 36 times so far this season, the highest total in the league; the Colts allowed just 44 sacks all of last season, and even that total was fifth-highest in the NFL. Brissett was taken down three times in last week’s stunning win over the Houston Texans – and the Colts won’t be so lucky if they can’t protect their quarterback against one of the NFL’s fiercest pass rushes.

    [B]Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41)[/B]

    [I]Chargers’ leaky run D vs. Jaguars’ elite ground game[/I]

    The Jacksonville Jaguars suddenly have division title aspirations as they look to remain atop the AFC South standings with a victory this weekend against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Normalcy should return to the Jaguars’ locker room after rookie running back Leonard Fournette was benched in Week 9 for a series of team violations. The Jaguars will need Fournette in the fold to take full advantage of the Chargers’ questionable run defense.

    The Chargers have limited opponents to just 19 points per game so far, but they should consider themselves fortunate in that regard given how much they have struggled against opposing rushers. Los Angeles ranks 28th out of 32 teams in yards per carry (4.6), 29th in rushing first downs allowed per game (7.0) and 31st in rushing yards against per contest (135.1). The Chargers have only given up five rushing scores, but that will change if they don’t tighten up against the run.

    This might not be the week the Chargers get right. The Jaguars boast the league’s most potent rush attack, ranked first in yards per game on the ground (166.5) and second in yards per carry (4.8). And Jacksonville knows where its proverbial bread is buttered; it ranks first in the NFL in rush play percentage (52.9) and first in total rushes per game (34.8). It’s no secret what the Jaguars’ game plan will be – and the Chargers might not be equipped to do much about it.

    [B]Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 50.5)[/B]

    [I]Cowboys’ interception avoidance vs. Falcons’ flailing secondary[/I]

    Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan were two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL last season. But, while Prescott has picked up right where he has left off, Ryan is scrambling to regain his 2017 form as he and the Falcons welcome Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday. While there’s still a possibility that the Cowboys will lose running back Ezekiel Elliott to suspension at some point, Prescott’s play has put bettors’ minds at ease – and should continue to do so against a subpar Atlanta secondary.

    The Cowboys registered the third-fewest interceptions in the NFL last season with six – and while they’re on pace to surpass that total in 2017, it won’t be by much. Prescott has had just four passes picked off through his first eight games of the season; only four teams have fewer interceptions. Prescott’s consistency has been remarkable; he has completed between 63.5 and 64 percent of his passes in each of the past three games, without throwing an interception in any of them.

    Don’t expect Prescott’s INT total to climb against the Falcons, who come into Week 10 with a paltry two interceptions – ranking 31st out of 32 NFL teams. Atlanta’s one interception return yard – that’s right, one – is also 31st in the league. The Falcons also rank in the bottom half of the league in passes defended (33), while Prescott has had just 27 passes defended – tied for seventh-fewest in the NFL. It should be a low-pressure kind of day for Prescott, which could give the Cowboys a pivotal edge.

    #454504

    cnotes
    Member
    • Author

    [B]NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 10

    Sunday, November 12[/B]

    [b]Sunday, November 12[/b]

    [B]Minnesota @ Washington[/B]

    Game 251-252
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Minnesota
    137.462
    Washington
    134.571
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Minnesota
    by 3
    44
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Minnesota
    by 1
    42 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Minnesota
    (-1); Over

    Green Bay @ Chicago[/B]

    Game 253-254
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Green Bay
    130.999
    Chicago
    133.435
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Chicago
    by 2 1/2
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Chicago
    by 6
    38
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Green Bay
    (+6); Under

    Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis[/B]

    Game 255-256
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Pittsburgh
    137.137
    Indianapolis
    129.095
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 8
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Pittsburgh
    by 10 1/2
    44 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Indianapolis
    (+10 1/2); Under

    LA Chargers @ Jacksonville[/B]

    Game 257-258
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    LA Chargers
    131.637
    Jacksonville
    139.696
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 8
    34
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Jacksonville
    by 3 1/2
    41
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Jacksonville
    (-3 1/2); Under

    NY Jets @ Tampa Bay[/B]

    Game 259-260
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Jets
    131.994
    Tampa Bay
    127.567
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Jets
    by 4 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Jets
    by 2
    43
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    NY Jets
    (-2); Under

    Cincinnati @ Tennessee[/B]

    Game 261-262
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cincinnati
    128.987
    Tennessee
    129.725
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Tennessee
    by 1
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Tennessee
    by 5
    40 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Cincinnati
    (+5); Under

    New Orleans @ Buffalo[/B]

    Game 263-264
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New Orleans
    136.164
    Buffalo
    140.512
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Buffalo
    by 4 1/2
    42
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New Orleans
    by 3
    46 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Buffalo
    (+3); Under

    Cleveland @ Detroit[/B]

    Game 265-266
    November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Cleveland
    121.425
    Detroit
    137.966
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Detroit
    by 16 1/2
    52
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Detroit
    by 11
    45 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Detroit
    (-11); Over

    Houston @ LA Rams[/B]

    Game 267-268
    November 12, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Houston
    128.117
    LA Rams
    148.313
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    LA Rams
    by 20
    51
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    LA Rams
    by 11
    45 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    LA Rams
    (-11); Over

    Dallas @ Atlanta[/B]

    Game 269-270
    November 12, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Dallas
    132.555
    Atlanta
    138.903
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Atlanta
    by 6 1/2
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Atlanta
    by 2 1/2
    50 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Atlanta
    (-2 1/2); Under

    NY Giants @ San Francisco[/B]

    Game 271-272
    November 12, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    NY Giants
    126.366
    San Francisco
    121.259
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    NY Giants
    by 5
    39
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    NY Giants
    by 2 1/2
    42
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    NY Giants
    (-2 1/2); Under

    New England @ Denver[/B]

    Game 273-274
    November 12, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    New England
    133.249
    Denver
    131.245
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    New England
    by 2
    37
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    New England
    by 7 1/2
    46 1/2
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Denver
    (+7 1/2); Under[/B]

    [b]Monday, November 13[/b]

    [B]Miami @ Carolina[/B]

    Game 275-276
    November 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Miami
    128.515
    Carolina
    130.657
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Carolina
    by 2
    33
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Carolina
    by 10
    40
    [B]Dunkel Pick:
    Miami
    (+10); Under[/B]

    #454505

    cnotes
    Member
    • Author

    [B][SIZE=”5″]NFL[/SIZE]
    Armadillo’s Write-Up

    Week 10[/B]

    [B]Sunday’s games[/B]
    Vikings (6-2) @ Redskins (4-4)— Minnesota won last four games, covered last three; they’re 1-1 in true road games, losing in Pittsburgh, winning 20-17 in Chicago. Vikings are 1-6 in last seven post-bye games, 1-7 vs spread in last eight- they held five of last six opponents under their total for that game. Washington evened its record with upset win at Seattle; they were outgained by 143 yards, with three new starters on offensive line. Home side won last four series games; Vikings lost 38-26/26-20 in last two visits here. Average total in last five series games is 57. Three of last four Redskin games went over total. NFC North teams are 12-9 vs spread outsider their division; NFC East teams are 14-10 vs spread, 8-4 as an underdog.

    Packers (4-4) @ Bears (3-5)— Green Bay lost its last three games, scoring 10-17-10 points; they aren’t very good without Rodgers, scoring four TD’s on (22) drives in last three losses. Chicago is 6-2 vs spread this year but they’re favored for first time this season here; this is first time in nine years they’re favored over Packers. Green Bay is 12-2 in last 14 series games; they won last seven visits here. Pack (-7) won first meeting 35-14 in Week 4, thanks to +4 TO ratio. Bears outgained Green Bay 308-260. Bears are 2-2 at home, allowing 15.8 ppg- they lost last three post-bye games, by 41-3-26 points. Under is 6-2 in Chicago games this season. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-11-2 vs spread in divisional games. Since ’07, Bears are 15-28-3 as a home favorite; under Fox, they’re 0-4 as home faves.

    Steelers (6-2) @ Colts (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last three games, allowing three TD’s on last 31 drives; Steelers are 4-1 on road, winning by 3-17-6-5 points- they’re 12-7 in last 19 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Colts lost three of last four games, are 2-2 at home- three of the four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Steelers won last four series games, last three all by 17+ points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 3-3-21 points. Pittsburgh lost its last three post-bye games; they were favored in two of them. Indy won/covered last four pre-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Colts’ last seven games; under is 7-1 in Steeler games this season.

    Chargers (3-5) @ Jaguars (5-3)— Jaguars outscored last four opponents 43-6 in second half of game. Chargers won three of last four games after an 0-4 start; LA lost four of last six post-bye games. Bolts are 3-1 as a road underdog this year, losing on road by 3 in Denver, 8 in Foxboro- they won at Giants/Raiders. Three of their five losses are by 3 points or less. Jaguars allowed 7-7-9-0-7 points in their wins, 27-23-27 in their losses; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Chargers won last six games vs J’ville, beating Jaguars each of the last four years, scoring 31+ points in last three meetings. Bolts won last three visits here. Last three Charger games stayed under total, as did three of last four Jaguar games.

    Jets (4-5) @ Buccaneers (2-6)— Winston (shoulder), Evans (WR) are out here; former Jets QB Fitzpatrick gets nod here under center for Tampa Bay- he is 34 years old, has 46-69-1 record as an NFL starter- he went 13-14 with the Jets the last two years. Bucs lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), scoring total of 13 points in last two games (1 TD on 21 drives). Tampa Bay is 2-2 at home (under 3-1). Jets won five of last seven pre-bye games; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 17-14 at Cleveland- their road losses are by 9-25-3 points. Jets are 10-1 vs Tampa Bay; their only loss to the Bucs was in 1984. Gang Green won its last three visits to Tampa, with last visit here in ’09. Jets have 2+ takeaways in each go their last five games (+5).

    Bengals (3-5) @ Titans (5-3)— Cincy is 1-3 on road this year, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 3-15-16 points- their one road win was in Cleveland. Bengals were held to 148 yards on just 37 plays in dismal 23-7 loss to Jaguars LW- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, had only 8 first downs. Tennessee won its last three games, winning last two by FG each; Titans are 3-1 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- their home wins are by 6-14-3 points. Cincy won last two series games, 24-17/33-7; they won last two visits to Nashville- their last loss here was in ’04. AFC North teams are 8-9-1 vs spread outside their division, 3-3-1 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 10-7-1, 4-2-1 as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.

    Saints (6-2) @ Bills (5-3)— New Orleans won its last six games after an 0-2 start; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Carolina/Green Bay- they won last three games despite being -1 in turnovers in all three games. Saints allowed only 8 TD’s on their foes’ last 60 drives. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season, allowing 17.3 ppg; Saints won last four series games, all by 12+ points; this is their first visit to western NY since 2009- NO won last three visits here, with lone loss in 1983. NFC South teams are 9-15-2 vs spread outside their division, 6-6-1 on road; AFC East teams are 12-7-2, 5-4-2 at home. Last three Buffalo games went over total; under is 5-1 in last six Saint games. Teams coming off of Thursday night games are 10-5-1 vs spread this season.

    Browns (0-8) @ Lions (4-4)— Short week for Detroit after rare win in Lambeau Monday night, which makes this a trap game for Lions. Detroit lost its last three home games, allowing 25.7 ppg- they’re 12-5-3 as home favorite under Caldwell, 1-1 this year. Cleveland is 0-9 (2-7 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as road underdogs this year, losing road games by 14-3-16 points. Browns are 1-5 (2-4 vs spread) in last six post-bye games. Detroit won last three series games, by 3-1-14 points; Browns lost 38-37 in their only visit here, in 2009. Browns’ last three road games went over the total. NFC North home teams are 8-5 vs spread outside the division; AFC North road underdogs are 3-3-1. Cleveland is -13 in turnovers this year, which helps explain the 0-8 mark.

    Texans (3-5) @ Rams (6-2)— Houston scored 7-14 points in losing both games Savage started this year; they scored 34.7 ppg in other six games, so Watson’s injury is crippling. Texans are are 3-0 vs spread as road underdog this year; all three games were decided by 4 or less points, but they were also all Watson starts. Rams are home for first time in five weeks; they won last three games, by 10-33-34 points. LA is 1-2 as a home favorite- they lost their last two home games, to Seattle, Washington. Wade Phillips coached with the Texans in 2011-13, was interim coach for three games. Road team won all three series games; Texans won 16-13 in St Louis in only road series games, in ’09. Over is 6-2 in Rams games this season.

    Cowboys (5-3) @ Falcons (4-4)— Falcons lost four of last five games after a 1-4 start; they’re 1-2 at home, losing to Buffalo/Miami in last two home tilts. Atlanta scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in four losses- they won last two series games 19-13/39-28; Cowboys’ last series win was in 2009. Teams split last six series games in Atlanta. Dallas won/covered its last three games; they won their last three road games. Cowboys allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses. Dallas ran ball for 183.4 ypg the last five games; check Elliott’s legal status. Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; four of last five Dallas games went over. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks.

    Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (0-9)— Not many 0-9 teams have been favored/pick ‘em in Game 10. 49ers were outscored 51-6 in first half of their last three games; they’re favored for first time this year. This will probably be Beathard’s last start for 49ers; they have bye next week, then Garoppolo figures to take over as the QB. Giants are 3-1 vs spread on road this year, winning at Denver in their last road game. Big Blue’s road losses are by 16-3-2 points, at Dallas/Philly/Tampa- they’ve allowed 400+ yards in their last three games- they allowed 14.1 ypa in rain last week. Big Blue lost field position in its last two games, by 11-14 yards. Giants won six of last eight series games; their last visit to SF was in 2012. Four of last six Giant games went over total.

    Patriots (6-2) @ Broncos (3-5)— Denver lost its last four games, giving up 80 points in last two games; their reality is none of its three QB’s are good enough. Broncos allowed TD on defense or special teams in three of last four games- they’re 3-1 at home, but loss was to the 1-7 Giants. New England won its last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 3-0 on road, 2-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 16-5-7 points. Patriots lost six of last eight visits to Denver; they’re 2-3 in last five games with Broncos- two of three losses were playoff games. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks. Broncos covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. Last four New England games stayed under the total.

    [B]Monday’s game[/B]
    Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3)— Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD’s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula’s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.

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