Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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  • #452700

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    [B][I]SuperContest Picks – Week 9
    November 5, 2017[/I][/B]

    The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

    Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

    The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

    This year’s contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

    Each week throughout the season, we’ll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

    Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

    [B]Week 9[/B]

    1) Indianapolis +13 (1,675) WIN

    2) L.A. Rams -3.5 (944) WIN

    3) Dallas +1 (824) WIN

    4) Denver +8.5 (766) LOSS

    5) Atlanta +1 (715) LOSS
    [B]
    SUPERCONTEST WEEK 9 MATCHUPS & ODDS[/B]
    Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
    Buffalo (-3) 283 N.Y. Jets (+3) 174
    Denver (+8.5) 766 Philadelphia (-8.5) 420
    L.A. Rams (-3.5) 944 N.Y. Giants (+3.5) 332
    Tampa Bay (+7) 517 New Orleans (-7) 608
    Cincinnati (+5) 423 Jacksonville (-5) 604
    Atlanta (+1) 715 Carolina (-1) 443
    Indianapolis (+13) 1675 Houston (-13) 70
    Baltimore (+5) 471 Tennessee (-5) 379
    Arizona (-2) 338 San Francisco (+2) 342
    Washington (+7) 241 Seattle (-7) 627
    Kansas City (-1) 522 Dallas (+1) 824
    Oakland (-3) 561 Miami (+3) 382
    Detroit (-2.5) 483 Green Bay (+2.5) 426

    [B]WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS[/B]
    Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
    1 0-5 0-5 0%
    2 3-2 3-7 30%
    3 2-3 5-10 33%
    4 4-1 9-11 45%
    5 1-4 10-15 40%
    6 2-3 12-18 40%
    7 0-5 12-23 34%
    8 2-3 14-26 35%
    9 3-2 17-28 38%

    #452702

    cnotes
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    [B][I]MNF – Lions at Packers
    November 4, 2017[/I][/B]

    [B]LAST WEEK[/B]

    The Lions (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) dropped their third straight game following a 3-1 start in a 20-15 home defeat to the Steelers as three-point underdogs. Detroit failed to reach the end zone as kicker Matt Prater knocked down five field goals, while the Lions couldn’t convert a fourth and goal at the one-yard line down 13-12. Four plays later, Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with rookie standout Juju Smith-Schuster on a 97-yard touchdown strike to give the Steelers a 20-12 lead which held up.

    Amazingly, the Lions didn’t score a touchdown in spite of quarterback Matthew Stafford’s 423-yard passing effort. Stafford rebounded from a three-interception performance in a Week 6 setback at New Orleans, while getting intercepted only once in five home games. Marvin Jones, Jr. hauled in six catches for 128 yards, but the Lions’ rushing game didn’t get going by racking up 71 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, Detroit did as much as it could against a talented Pittsburgh offense by limiting the Steelers to 392 yards, which included the dreaded 97-yard touchdown to put the game out of reach.

    The Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) are back from the bye week following a Week 7 home loss to the Saints. Green Bay began life without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss at Minnesota that has him sidelined indefinitely. Brett Hundley made his first start against New Orleans, but there was an obvious drop-off as the former UCLA quarterback threw for only 87 yards and was intercepted once.

    Green Bay held a 14-7 lead following a Hundley 14-yard touchdown run, but the Saints outscored the Packers the rest of the way, 19-3 as New Orleans accumulated 485 yards. Running back Aaron Jones broke the 100-yard mark for the second time in three weeks by compiling 131 yards on 17 carries to go along with a touchdown, but the Packers have scored 27 points in the last two games since consecutive 35-point performances in Weeks 4 and 5.

    [B]MOTOR CITY CHALK[/B]

    For only the second time this season, the Lions will be laying points. Detroit fell short in its first favorite opportunity in a 27-24 home setback to Carolina in Week 5 as two-point chalk. Jim Caldwell’s team was favored only once away from Ford Field last season, dropping a 17-14 decision at Chicago as three-point favorites. The last time Detroit won when laying points on the highway came at Chicago in the season finale of 2016, while owning a 6-7 ATS record as a favorite since the start of 2015.

    [B]NO AARON, NO PROBLEM?[/B]

    Actually, it is a problem when Rodgers isn’t in the lineup for the Packers. In 2013 when Rodgers injured his left shoulder in a Week 9 loss to the Bears, Green Bay went on to 2-4-1 record the next seven games, including home losses to the Eagles and Steelers, to go along with a tie against Minnesota. In those defeats to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Packers were listed as a home underdog. Green Bay actually won as a home ‘dog against Seattle last season, but the Packers last won in this role without Rodgers in the lineup coming in the 2011 season finale – against the Lions.
    [B]
    SERIES HISTORY[/B]

    The Lions haven’t had much luck at Lambeau Field over the years by losing 25 of the last 26 visits to Wisconsin since a December victory in 1991 to help them win the NFC Central. The only time Detroit has won in the last quarter-century at Green Bay came in 2015 as a 10 ½-point underdog, 18-16.

    Last season, the Packers swept the Lions in a pair of high-scoring affairs won by seven points each. In the first matchup last September, Green Bay built a 31-3 advantage before Detroit roared back by outscoring the Packers, 24-3 the rest of the way. However, the Packers picked up a 34-27 victory as 6 ½-point favorites, paced by four Rodgers touchdown passes. Stafford tried to keep up by tossing three touchdowns, including two to Marvin Jones, who hauled in 205 yards in the loss.

    In the final meeting in Detroit in Week 17, the Packers held off the Lions, 31-24 as 3 ½-point favorites, highlighted by another four touchdown passing game by Rodgers. Stafford fell to 3-10 in his career against the Packers in spite of 347 yards passing and two touchdown tosses.

    [B]UNDER THE LIGHTS
    [/B]
    Detroit is making its second appearance on Monday night football this season after winning at New York in Week 2 over the Giants, 24-10 as three-point underdogs. Since 2015, the Lions have split four Monday night games, but have compiled a 3-1 ATS record. Dating back to 2014, the Packers are a perfect 3-0 in Monday action, while playing in its first Monday game this season.
    [B]
    HANDICAPPER’S CORNER[/B]

    VegasInsider.com expert Joe Nelson weighs in on this matchup, “These are below average statistical teams with the Lions ranked 19th and the Packers sitting 23rd in the league rankings in total offense despite both teams being in the top 11 in scoring. The scoring and total defense numbers are nearly identical at this point in the season as well heading into the season’s first meeting with these teams set to meet in Detroit in Week 17.”

    It will be tough for the Packers to keep their heads above water without Rodgers, as Nelson looks at what lies ahead for Green Bay, “The prognosis of Rodgers is still being determined with some hope that he could return for the final three weeks of the regular season. For that to happen, the Packers would need to have meaningful games in the final three weeks and Hundley will need to guide Green Bay to a few wins in a relatively favorable schedule in November and early December outside of a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 12.”

    The Packers will have to focus on the run to be successful with Hundley under center, but it won’t be easy according to Nelson, “With Hundley leading the offense, the Packers seem likely to run the ball more often and against New Orleans in Hundley’s first start, the Packers gained 181 yards rushing though on only 24 carries. Detroit actually allows only 3.6 yards per rush this season for the fourth- lowest average in the league, but those strong numbers are in part of factor of Detroit allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt for one of the worst pass defenses in the league.”

    From a trends standpoint, handicapper Vince Akins points out an OVER system that applies to Green Bay, “The Packers are 10-0 OU since November 6, 2016 facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 25 rushes per game.” Four of those OVERS came this season already, including in home victories over Cincinnati and Chicago.
    [B]
    BOOKMAKER’S TAKE[/B]

    Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu provides his view from the counter, “Every time we’ve taken some smart money on Detroit, and move to -2.5, we get the same on the other side and drop back to the opener of -2. At this point, 60 percent of the handle is on the road chalk. Public is somewhat split on the decision, with a few more backing the Pack. If this spread moves anywhere, I’d expect it will move toward the Lions.”

    #452704

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Monday’s Best Bet
    November 3, 2017[/I][/B]

    [B]NFL Week 9 MNF Best Bet
    Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers[/B]

    A NFC North showdown caps off Week 9’s NFL action on Monday night and it’s a rarity to see the Detroit Lions actually laying points on the road at Lambeau Field. But that’s what it means for Green Bay to not have QB Aaron Rodgers under center at the moment, and backup Brett Hundley’s performance in his first start a few weeks ago didn’t exactly grow bettor’s confidence in the Packers going forward.

    The Packers are coming off their bye week though, so hopefully for Green Bay fans that time off and extra practice time helped Hundley further adjust to his new role as the starter. Can he and the Packers step up and get the outright win this week?

    [B]BetOnline.ag Odds: Detroit (-2.5); Total set at 43.5[/B]

    Right off the bat I think that the Hundley we saw two weeks ago that threw for just 87 yards and 1 INT is not going to be the same guy we see this week on extended rest. The time off to prepare for this game had to have helped him tremendously, but that being said, he’s still not going to look like the second coming of Aaron Rodgers this week. He’s still a significant downgrade at the position for Green Bay, and the coaching staff will still be on the side of caution with him regarding playcalling and the like.

    On the Lions side, their offense has to be frustrated with how they couldn’t close against the Steelers a week ago as they had plenty of opportunities inside the redzone to cash in with TD’s and couldn’t get it done. Settling for FG’s inside the 10-yard line is a quick way to lose in the NFL and Detroit suffered that fate first hand a week ago.

    With no Rodgers to deal with on the other side, the Lions have to view this game as a great opportunity to beat a hated rival, get back to .500 on the year and start to legitimately think about hunting down Minnesota in the division. But I wouldn’t expect those red zone problems to be completely solved just a week later as the Lions roster doesn’t really have that physical RB that can get you tough yards close to the goal line, and relying on QB Matthew Stafford’s arm to connect in those tight windows down there is tough.

    So where do you go on this game?

    Well, with the kid gloves on for Hundley and Green Bay’s offensive playcalling, look for the Packers defense to step up and try to carry the load. The guys on that side of the ball know they don’t have Rodgers under center anymore to bail them out like he often has, and it’s up to them to try and keep the Packers in the playoff mix. This defense has had two weeks to prepare for a Lions team they already know very well, and given Detroit’s redzone problems, Green Bay’s defense has to like their chances of tightening things up in those situations and forcing the Lions to FG tries at best.

    Detroit’s defense will be hungry to get after Hundley and force him to beat them with his arm. That’s not ideal from the Packers perspective, so points may be hard to come by for them as well. Green Bay is 1-4 O/U the last five years after their bye week and contrary to all the recent QB shootouts between Stafford and Rodgers in this rivalry recently, this game has a much different feel to it.

    Therefore, I’m looking to the low side of this total here as I’m not even sure either team gets to 20 points. Green Bay will want to shorten the game with their ground attack and limit Hundley’s exposure, while the Packers defense will step up to frustrate Stafford and the Lions attack for the second consecutive week. We could see quite a bit of FG’s in this game on the drives that do yield points, and I’m surprised we are already seeing about 75% of the action on this total already on the high side.

    With the Lions 1-5 O/U in their last six division games overall, 3-9 O/U in their last 12 appearances on MNF, and 8-22 O/U in their last 30 on the road, I’m just not sure where we get the points.

    Clearly I’m in the minority on an ‘under’ play right now and this total could even go higher by Monday night with all the action on the high side already. If that’s what ends up happening I’ll have to put another unit or two on this ‘under’ play, as this will be the first MNF game in about a month that will cash ‘under’ tickets for bettors. Coincidentally, that last under on MNF this year also featured two NFC North teams battling it out (Minnesota/Chicago).

    [B]Odds per – BetOnline.ag

    Best Bet: Under 43.5[/B]

    #452705

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Monday’s six-pack[/I][/B]

    Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

    5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

    4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

    3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

    2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

    1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

    Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33

    ******************************************

    [B][I]
    Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday[/I][/B]

    13) Before we go over this week’s games, some thoughts about today’s shooting in Texas.

    If you can’t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

    I’m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

    Jets 34, Bills 21— Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

    Eagles 51, Broncos 23— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they’re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

    Rams 51, Giants 17— Performances like this get coaches/GM’s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they’re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

    It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams’ last three games. Rams’ special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

    Saints 30, Buccaneers 10— New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD’s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO’s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

    Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden’s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn’t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

    Jaguars 23, Bengals 7— Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

    Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax’ville hasn’t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

    Panthers 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD’s in their last three games- they’re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons’ Super Bowl hangover continues— Atlanta is 4-5.

    Colts 20, Texans 14— Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans’ first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

    Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts’ 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

    Titans 23, Ravens 20— Tennessee allowed only three TD’s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they’re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami’s result pending Sunday night.

    Redskins 17, Seahawks 14— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

    Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17— Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL’s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I’m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don’t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

    Raiders 27, Dolphins 24— Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they’ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.

    #452816

    cnotes
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    [SIZE=4][COLOR=”#A52A2A”][B]Armadillo: Monday’s six-pack[/B][/COLOR][/SIZE]

    Six most popular picks for Week 9 in the Westgate Super Contest:

    6) Seattle Seahawks -7 (627)- L

    5) Atlanta Falcons +1 (715)- L

    4) Denver Broncos +8.5 (766)- L

    3) Dallas Cowboys +1 (824)- W

    2) Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (944)- W

    1) Indianapolis Colts +13 (1,675)- W

    Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33

    **********

    [SIZE=”4″][COLOR=”#A52A2A”][B]Armadillo: Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday [/B][/COLOR][/SIZE]

    13) Before we go over this week’s games, some thoughts about today’s shooting in Texas.

    If you can’t go to church and feel safe, something is bleeping wrong. 24 people died in a mass shooting in a Texas church Sunday. Do churches need metal detectors? Is this what our country is coming to? Seriously?

    I’m tired of offering thoughts/prayers to victims; you go to church to pray, but right now, there are little kids in surgery because a crazy person shot up a church. Enough already.

    Jets 34, Bills 21— Buffalo came in to this game +14 in turnovers for season, left +11. Jets ran ball for 194 yards, ended a 3-game losing skid. Jets are only 4-5, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2. By the way, I vote for the NFL to eliminate Thursday night games and switch to Monday night doubleheaders. Think it would be better for the league.

    Eagles 51, Broncos 23— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night, then had 3rd straight road game here. Denver has now lost four games in a row, scoring 10-0-3-23 points; they’re also 0-4 on the road, losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Eagles won their last seven games, would be #1 seed in NFC if the playoffs started today.

    Rams 51, Giants 17— Performances like this get coaches/GM’s fired. Rams scored eight of the first nine times they had the ball- they’re 4-0 in true road games this season. Giants have a lot of interesting decisions to make this fall/winter.

    It takes a whole roster for a team to be good; reserve LB Cory Littleton has blocked a punt in two of the Rams’ last three games. Rams’ special teams coach John Fassel is the son of Jim Fassel, who led the Giants to Super Bowl XXXV.

    Saints 30, Buccaneers 10— New Orleans won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); their defense is the story. Saints allowed 8 TD’s on 65 drives during their winning streak. Buccaneers have now lost five games in a row, as teams that were on HBO’s Hard Knocks in the summer continue to struggle that season.

    Bucs are 0-4 on road, losing by 7-5-3-20 points. Jon Gruden’s name will be mentioned a lot in Tampa this week. Jameis Winston sat out the 2nd half (shoulder), which could be really bad news for the Bucs, who didn’t have a play longer than 15 yards in this game.

    Jaguars 23, Bengals 7— Cincinnati ran 37 plays for 148 yards for the whole game- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, Jaguars were 12-18. Total yardage was 407-148.

    Jags de-activated Leonard Fournette for this game because he is lapsing with his off-field responsibilities, like getting his treatments for his ankle, and missing the team picture. Jax’ville hasn’t allowed a second half TD in their last four games, outscoring teams 43-6.

    Panthers 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta/Denver both played their 3rd straight week on the road, neither team won or covered. Panthers allowed only two offensive TD’s in their last three games- they’re 6-3 with a bye week coming up in two weeks. Saints lead NFC South with a 6-2 mark, while the Falcons’ Super Bowl hangover continues— Atlanta is 4-5.

    Colts 20, Texans 14— Loss of star rookie QB Watson was obvious here; Texans’ first TD was scored by their defense. Houston had scored 33+ points in its last five games, but with Watson out, not so much.

    Tom Savage led Texans down field on last drive, getting to the Colts’ 10-yard line, but Savage got sacked/fumbled as time ran out. Indy is now 1-4 on the road.

    Titans 23, Ravens 20— Tennessee allowed only three TD’s on 30 drives in winning their last three games- they’re 3-1 at home. Teams coming off a Thursday night game are now 10-4-1 vs spread; the Thursday winner is 5-2-1 vs spread in their next game, the loser 5-2, with Miami’s result pending Sunday night.

    Redskins 17, Seahawks 14— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) with new OT Brown in lineup, but they missed three FGs, and lost despite outgaining Washington 437-244. Seahawks also had 16 penalties for 138 yards. Big win for the Redskins, whose OL has been almost totally rebuilt in last couple of weeks. Right now, Seahawks are tied with Dallas for second Wild Card slot.

    Cowboys 28, Chiefs 17— Both teams that played on Monday night last week lost road games this week; tough scheduling spot. Dallas converted 7-12 on 3rd down, ran ball for 131 yards as Elliott keeps skirting the NFL’s suspension during the week and opposing tacklers on Sunday. I’m not a big Alex Smith fan; I know his career won-loss record is 86-68-1, which is very good, just don’t think he takes enough chances to ever be a great QB.

    Raiders 27, Dolphins 24— Oakland won for only second time in last seven games overall, second time in last 10 meetings with Miami; they’ve scored 26+ points in their wins this season, 17 or less in their five losses. Teams that played on Thursday are 10-5-1 vs spread in their next game, when they have three extra days to rest. Dolphins pushed the spread with a late touchdown. Favorites are 8-3-1 vs spread this weekend; over is 5-7.

    #452818

    cnotes
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    [B][SIZE=”5″]NFL[/SIZE]

    [b]Monday, November 6[/b][/B]

    ————————————————————————————————————————
    [size=”3″][I][B] Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Lions at Packers [/B][/I][/size]
    ————————————————————————————————————————

    [I] Matthew Stafford has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts and yards for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game.[/I]

    [B]Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+2, 43.5)[/B]

    The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions are attempting to address issues with their respective offenses heading into Monday night’s clash at Lambeau Field. The Packers have seen their high-octane offense take a significant hit with the loss of two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone), while the Lions’ issues deal with their inability to consistently convert in the red zone.

    Brett Hundley answered a three-interception performance in relief of an injured Rodgers by completing just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards and an interception in his first career start – a 26-17 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 22. The Packers had their bye the following week, with coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers working with Hundley in a bid to address some issues with the team’s 243.5-yard total offense in the near-two games since Rodgers was injured – 66.5 below their season average. Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards in last Sunday’s 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh, but his team went 0-for-5 in the red zone and fell to 28th in the league in that situation as it settled for five field goals by Matt Prater. “Just not executing enough,” Stafford told reporters. “Whether it’s me making a better throw or a guy making a catch or assignments in the run game – whatever it is, we’ve just got to execute better.”
    [B]
    TV:[/B] 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
    [B]
    POWER RANKINGS:[/B] Lions (0) – Packers (4) + home field (-3) = Packers +1
    [B]
    LINE HISTORY:[/B] The Lions opened as 2.5-point road chalk and money coming in on the Packers brought that line as low as +1 Sunday morning, before fading back to +2. The total hit the betting board at 43 and is up slightly to 43.5.
    [B]
    WHAT SHARPS SAY:[/B] “The Detroit Lions will look to overcome one of the ugliest stains in the NFL as they look to improve on a 1-25 mark as a virus in this series. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers watching from the sidelines the Packers will try an overcome an equally ugly 0-3 SU and ATS record at home in games they played without Rodgers the last time he broke his collarbone in 2013.” – Marc Lawrence.

    [B]INJURY REPORT:[/B]

    Lions – RB Dwayne Washington (Questionable, Concussion), S Don Carey (Questionable, Knee), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), WR Kenny Golladay (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Paul Worrilow (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Questionable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tim Lelito (I-R, Thigh).

    Packers – TE Martellus Bennett (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Questionable, Ankle), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LS Taybor Pepper (Questionable, Foot), LB Joe Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), S Morgan Burnett (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Ahmad Brooks (Questionable, Back), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Migraine), OT Jason Spriggs (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Demetri Goodson (Questionable, Knee), LB Vince Biegel (Questionable, Monday)
    [B]
    ABOUT THE LIONS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):[/B] Golden Tate didn’t let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game last Sunday, while Marvin Jones Jr. made six catches for the third consecutive contest, amassing 128 yards in the process. While the passing game traditionally has clicked under Stafford, Detroit’s ground attack has been running in place as it has been 59 contests since the team had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Stafford actually has averaged a team-best 5.2 yards per carry this season while Ameer Abdullah leads in attempts (101) and yards (369) for the Lions, who rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.1) and yards per attempt (3.48).
    [B]
    ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U):[/B] Hundley admitted a comfort level working with Rodgers as he prepares for his second career start. “Me and Aaron talk a lot,” Hundley told reporters on Thursday. “Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It’s the same – now it’s a different type of talk. He’s telling me stuff, and it’s good for me. Aaron’s always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better.” Jordy Nelson is tied for second in the NFL with six receiving touchdowns, but the stud wideout was limited to just one catch for 13 yards against the Saints while Randall Cobb has reeled in just five passes for 43 yards over the last two games.
    [B]
    TRENDS:[/B]

    * Lions are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

    * Under is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. NFC North.

    * Under is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a bye week.

    * Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

    * Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.
    [B]
    CONSENSUS:[/B] The road fave Lions are picking up 65 percent of the action on the spread and Under is grabbing 61 percent of the totals selections.

    #452820

    cnotes
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    [SIZE=4][COLOR=”#A52A2A”][B]Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move[/B][/COLOR][/SIZE]
    Art Aronson

    [I]The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.[/I]

    [B]Game to bet now[/B]

    [I]Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)[/I]

    Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

    Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

    [B]Game to wait on[/B]

    [I]Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)[/I]

    Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, and the Texans’ subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick – a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB’s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

    The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

    There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA’s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn’t firmed up yet.

    [B]Total to watch[/B]

    [I]New York Giants at San Francisco (42)[/I]

    The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team’s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.

    #452824

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    [B][I]Betting Recap – Week 9
    November 6, 2017[/I][/B]

    [B]Overall Notes

    NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 9 RESULTS[/B]

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 8-4
    Against the Spread 6-4-2

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 7-5
    Against the Spread 6-4-2

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 5-7

    [B]The largest underdogs to win straight up[/B]
    Redskins (+8.5, ML +350) at Seahawks, 17-14
    Colts (+6, ML +210) at Texans, 20-14
    Jets (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Bills, 34-21
    Panthers (+3, ML +135) vs. Falcons, 20-17
    [B]
    The largest favorite to cover[/B]
    Eagles (-7) vs. Broncos, 51-23
    Saints (-7) vs. Buccaneers, 30-10
    Rams (-6) at Giants, 51-17
    Jaguars (-5.5) vs. Bengals, 23-7

    [B]Bam-da-Lam, How About Those Rams?[/B]

    — The Los Angeles Rams hit the road and thrashed the hapless New York Giants 51-17, as QB Jared Goff and company are currently the highest-scoring offense in the National Football League. How many people predicted that after the former standout at Cal looked like a deer in headlights in his rookie season? The Rams have won and covered three in a row, and the ‘over’ has cashed in six of their eight games overall. Cross-country trips haven’t fazed the Rams, either, as they’re 2-0 SU/ATS in two outings in the Eastern Time Zone. Hey, at least they were helped out somewhat on Sunday when we turned back the clocks an hour.

    [B]Odd Balls[/B]

    — The Jacksonville Jaguars came out of their bye rested, and they humbled the visiting Cincinnati Bengals by a 23-7 count at EverBank Stadium. It might have been an eyebrow-raising win considering they were a six-point favorite despite missing all-everything rookie RB Leonard Fournette, who was deactivated due to a violation of team rules. #Sacksonville was led by their defense, and they won and covered because it was an odd-numbered week. If you’ve been following this column all season you’d know the Jags are 5-0 SU/ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 0-3 SU/ATS in even-numbered weeks, which is why it was good their bye was in Week 8. So will they fail to cover at home against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10? The coincidental trend suggests so. And hey, the Bolts are coming off a bye, so they’ll be rested.
    Total Recall

    — Sunday Night Football hit the ‘over’ for the first time since Week 5, as the Oakland Raiders picked up a much-needed road victory against the hard-to-figure Miami Dolphins, 27-24. That’s now three ‘over’ results in a row for the Silver and Black, and their second straight over in the Eastern Time Zone. It was also the third consecutive ‘over’ for the Fins, thanks in large part to their flagging defense. Miami is allowing 31.7 PPG over their past three outings after yielding just 16.9 PPG through their first five games, all ‘under’ results.

    — The games with the two lowest total on the board — Cincinnati-Jacksonville (38) and Arizona-San Francisco (39) — actually went according to how Vegas figured for once. The Jags have hit the ‘under’ in three of their past four outings, and they have yielded single-digit point totals in five of their first eight outings this season. The Bengals have struggled on offense, averaging just 16.2 PPG this season. And the 49ers have a rookie QB, and they have scored exactly 10 points in each of their past three outings, so no surprise on the ‘under’ there, while the Cards have a backup signal caller under center.

    — The Tampa Bay-New Orleans (54.5) game was far and away the highest total on the board, and it never came close to going over. In fact, the Bucs have two scoreless quarters, and the Saints had one, while all but one of the quarters had 10 or fewer total points. It was rather surprising considering the ‘over’ had cashed in each of the first three road games for Tampa this season, and the Saints are averaging 30.5 PPG in four home outings (over is 2-2).

    — The ‘Over’ is 17-11 (60.7%) through the first 28 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday’s NFC North Division clash between the Detroit Lions-Green Bay Packers (43) still pending. Officially, the ‘over’ finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

    [B]Injury Report[/B]

    — Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston (shoulder) has had a bum shoulder for the past couple of weeks, and he exited Sunday’s game in New Orleans early due to a shoulder ailment. He was on the sidelines, however, bugging Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, and he ended up touching off a fracas.

    — Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (ankle) suffered a right ankle injury in the fourth quarter of the win against the Chiefs, but he told The Dallas Morning News that he was just sore and bruised, and he would be fine for Week 10.

    — Seahawks RB Eddie Lacy (groin) left early due to a groin injury against the Redskins and he was unable to return.

    [B]Looking Ahead[/B]

    — There are just two divisional battles next week. The Seahawks and Cardinals will kick off Week 10 on Thursday Night Football in the desert. Seattle will be awfully angry after a home loss to the banged up ‘Skins. Seattle has been good on the road lately, though, winning and covering their past two. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 2-6 ATS this season, going 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in three home games. Last season, Arizona was 1-0-1 SU and 1-1 ATS against Seattle, with a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23 at home against the ‘Hawks.

    — The Packers and Bears renew acquaintances in the Second City, and Chicago will be looking for a little payback after getting drummed 35-14 at Lambeau on Thursday Night Football back on Sept. 28. Of course, the offense was being led by Aaron Rodgers, who has since been injured. The Packers have won each of their past seven trips to Soldier Field, including a playoff game in 2011, while going 6-1 ATS. Their last regular season loss in Chicago came Sept. 27, 2010. Again, though, the games were with Rodgers under center, not Brett Hundley.

    #452914

    cnotes
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    Monday Night Football Best Bets:

    NFL Record For Oct……Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

    11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
    11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

    Totals………….6 – 9 – 1……40.00%….-19.50

    Best Bets:……………….ATS……………….Unit s……….. ..O/U………….Units……………Total

    11/05/2017…………….0 – 2………………-11.00…………..3 – 1…………+9.50……………-1.50
    11/02/2017…………….1 – 0………………+5.00…………..0 – 0…………+0.00……………+5.00

    Totals……………………1 – 2………………-6.00……………3 – 1………….+9.50……………+3.50

    *******************

    11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM……..New York Jets + 3….34 – 21…………Winner

    #452915

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    [B]MONDAY, NOVEMBER 6
    GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS[/B]

    DET at GB 08:30 PM

    [B]DET -2.0 *****

    U 42.5 *****[/B]

    #452952

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    [B][I]Packers lose 3rd straight, seek answers without Rodgers
    November 7, 2017[/I][/B]

    GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Aaron Rodgers is the great equalizer for the Green Bay Packers, a once-in-a-generation type of talent who can help mask mistakes and turn busted plays into big gains.

    Without him, miscues are magnified and the margin of error shrinks considerably for the Packers.

    It happened again Monday night when Green Bay fell 30-17 to the Detroit Lions for its third straight loss, a streak that started when Rodgers hurt his collarbone on Oct. 15 at Minnesota.

    ”We’re a better team than what we’re putting on film, regardless of whether (Rodgers) is in there or not,” receiver Davante Adams said. ”We’ve still got … enough talent in here where we can win these types of games.”

    The Packers were coming off a bye, exuding optimism that an extra week of rest and preparation could help turn things around. Coming into the game, coach Mike McCarthy in part stressed the need to get the ball more to his playmaking receivers.

    They did just that, though most of the opportunities came on short passes.

    Adams had seven catches for 53 yards with a long of 9. Jordy Nelson finished with four catches for 35 yards. He was blanketed by Lions cornerback Darius Slay on a couple deep shots in the third quarter while the game was still competitive.

    Randall Cobb had five catches for 58 yards, including a 46-yard gain on a catch-and-run that set up Hundley’s 1-yard quarterback sneak that made it 20-10 with 9:52 left.

    Hundley was 26 of 36 for 245 yards, though he rarely took deep shots, especially in the first half. He nearly connected on one long throw to Adams, who had a step on the cornerback down the sideline, but the ball bounced off fingertips.

    ”This game they were giving us the underneath stuff,” Hundley said. ”You have to take what’s given.”

    McCarthy stood by Hundley, who is most effective out of the pocket and when he can use his legs.

    The Packers had other problems, too, rushing for 78 yards on 17 carries. They were just 2 of 9 on third downs.

    ”Brett Hundley played better tonight and I have great faith in Brett Hundley. Brett Hundley’s not our issue,” McCarthy said.

    The defense got burned on third downs by Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, who was 26 of 33 for 361 yards and two scores to Marvin Jones. The Lions were 8 of 13 on third-down conversions.

    The Lions’ opening score was set up by an unnecessary roughness penalty on Mike Daniels, after the defensive lineman appeared to head-butt Detroit center Travis Swanson. The flag negated an incompletion on third-and-15 that would have forced the Lions to punt from their own 25.

    Stafford connected with Jones for the touchdown pass five plays later.

    ”I really take that on myself. If we stop them there, then we get a short field … I let the emotions get the best of me,” Daniels said.

    With Rodgers in uniform, the Packers have a better chance to punch back on the scoreboard. The defense can take more chances and still know that Rodgers can win a shootout.

    They need to figure out quickly how to win without him.

    ”We come out winning Super Bowls around here. If we keep playing like this, it’s not going to be pretty,” cornerback Davon House said. ”We’re 4-4, with how many games left? Eight games left. We’ve got to pull together – somehow, some way.”

    #452953

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Monday Night Football Best Bets:

    NFL Record For Oct……Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

    11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
    11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
    11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

    Totals………….7 – 10 – 1……41.17%….-20.00

    Best Bets:……………….ATS……………….Unit s……….. ..O/U………….Units……………Total

    11/06/2017…………….1 – 0………………+5.00…………..0 – 1………….-5.50…………….-0.50
    11/05/2017…………….0 – 2………………-11.00…………..3 – 1…………+9.50…………….-1.50
    11/02/2017…………….1 – 0………………+5.00…………..0 – 0…………+0.00……………+5.00

    Totals……………………2 – 2………………-1.00…………….3 – 2………….+4.00…………..+3.00[/I][/B]

    *******************

    11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM……..New York Jets + 3….34 – 21…………Winner

    #452954

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Tuesday’s six-pack[/I][/B]

    Odds to win the 2018 World Series

    — Los Angeles Dodgers 11-2

    — Houston Astros 7-1/Cleveland Indians

    — Cleveland/New York (A)/Chicago Cubs 15-2

    — Boston Red Sox/Washington Nationals 10-1

    — St Louis Cardinals/Arizona Diamondbacks 20-1

    — Toronto Blue Jays 22-1

    ********************************************
    [B][I]
    Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….[/I][/B]

    13) Lions 30, Packers 17— Detroit wins for just 2nd time in last 26 visits to Wisconsin; Green Bay’s season is in the ashcan. Stafford threw for 361 yards, and scored TD’s in red zone.

    12) Eagles are 8-1 heading into their bye week; in the last 20 years, out of 45 teams to start a season 7-1, only the ’12 Bears, ’96 Redskins started 7-1, and then missed the playoffs.

    11) Seattle Seahawks penalties the last three games: 41 penalties for 358 yards. They need to knock those numbers down- 120 yards a game is tough to overcome.

    10) Bulls’ Zach LaVine signed a 4-year, $35M deal with adidas; he is making $3,202,217 from the Bulls this season. Why is a sneaker company paying him 273% what the Bulls pay him?

    9) Only players ever to hit a home run on Opening Day, and then in Game 7 of the World Series that same year: George Springer this year, and Yogi Berra, in 1956. Thats it.

    8) Atlanta Falcons are getting killed by bad field position; in their last four games, they lost field position by 9-7-11-16 yards.

    7) Tampa Bay’s star WR Mike Evans gets suspended for this week’s games with the Jets after his cheap shot at a Saints defender Sunday. The suspension costs Evans $290,967.37.

    Bucs also shut QB Jameis Winston down because of his sore shoulder; Tampa Bay’s season is a mess- they had very high expectations this summer.

    6) Eastern Illinois beat Illinois in one of this exhibition games for charity; surprising result, but the game doesn’t count, so Illinois may not have taken it as seriously as it should have. You know Eastern Illinois took it very seriously.

    5) Clippers/Lakers both played at home Sunday, in the Staples Center; would be curious to know how many people paid to watch both games.

    4) Miami Marlins dumped 44-year OF Ichiro Suzuki last week, possibly ending a career that will undoubtedly end with a Hall of Fame induction. He is still good enough to come off of someone’s bench; we’ll see if this is the end for Ichiro.

    3) SI.com points out that the Cincinnati Bengals have made 106 trades in their 50 years, but none of them were with the Browns or Steelers, their two biggest rivals. The AJ McCarron trade last week that the Browns butchered with their incompetence would’ve been the first one.

    2) They had four refs working a G-League basketball game on ESPNU last night; good Lord, just what we need, more refs. As an old coach once said when they went from two to three refs: “Just one more to yell at.” Now they have two more to yell at.

    1) College basketball starts Friday night, with a ton of games; more suspensions than usual early on this fall, so it is a good time to sit back, study and start to get a handle on this season. There will a lot of information to process late Friday night.

    Auburn already has two kids suspended, Texas A&M two, USC one and Southern Illinois has two kids hurt- Rhode Island had a kid arrested over the weekend- no word yet on his status. The recruiting scandal that is ongoing will probably result in more players being held out of the lineup.

    #452955

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    [B][I]Buccaneers QB Winston out at least two games
    November 6, 2017[/I][/B]

    TAMPA, Fla. — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have decided Jameis Winston needs a couple weeks off to rest his injured shoulder.

    The Bucs quarterback, who has failed to finish two of the past four games after suffering a sprained AC joint in his right throwing shoulder at Arizona Oct. 15, will be shut down for at least two weeks following an MRI he received Monday.

    Winston has started all 40 games since entering the NFL as the No. 1 overall pick by the Bucs in 2015. But the Bucs have lost five games in a row, and their franchise quarterback was forced to leave Sunday’s 30-10 loss at New Orleans shortly after sustaining a hit from Saints defensive end Alex Okafor just before halftime.

    Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter said veteran backup Ryan Fitzpatrick will start Sunday’s game against the Jets Sunday. The Bucs will also activate Ryan Griffin from injured reserve, and he will serve as the No. 2 quarterback in Sunday’s game.

    “As I told you guys last night, Jameis did have an MRI today and as a result of that MRI he’s going to be out the next couple weeks,” Koetter said.

    Koetter would not give any details about what the latest MRI revealed.

    “A lot of medical terms that I’m not an expert on, but that he needs to be off for a couple weeks,” Koetter said.

    Since Winston’s initial injury against the Cardinals, the Bucs are 0-4 and have scored a total of nine points in the first half of those games.

    “Jameis didn’t play his best,” Koetter said. “But on the third from the last play of the half, when he got hit on his left side, the way the defensive end and Jameis’ weight fell on his right shoulder, that’s when he reaggravated it and that was a hit most all quarterbacks in the NFL, when you’re coming off an injury and you see those, those are not good. Up until that point, Jameis had practiced good last week. He had one of his best practices on Friday. He threw the ball great in pregame warmups. But after that point, he was definitely hurt.”

    Following the initial injury at Arizona, Winston had one of his best games at Buffalo, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns with an interception in a 30-27 loss to the Bills.

    He did not play well in a 17-3 loss to Carolina Oct. 29, but coaches attributed that to the wind and a lack of practice time.

    The fact that Winston has been injured for four of the Bucs’ five straight losses may not be a coincidence.

    “Yup, I mean you could definitely draw that conclusion,” Koetter said. “The problem with that is there’s no way to measure it.”

    –Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans, who hit Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore from behind during Sunday’s game, has been suspended without pay for Sunday’s home game against the Jets, the league announced.

    Lattimore had shoved Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston after Winston came onto the field and poked him in the back of the helmet. Evans ran up and hit Lattimore from behind, knocking him to the ground. The Bucs receiver apologized after the game, calling his actions “very childish” and “unprofessional.”

    Evans was assessed a 15-yard penalty but not ejected. Saints head coach Sean Payton said after the game that Evans should have been ejected, and Koetter said Monday he was disappointed by what he saw.

    “Totally unacceptable behavior, first by Jameis and then by Mike,” Koetter said. “Jameis cannot under any circumstances come off the sideline when he’s not even playing in the game. Trash talking is trash talking, but to go out and tap another player, touch another player at all on the field, that’s inexcusable. Then the Saints player responded and Mike reacted, and that’s not acceptable either. That’s not having your teammate’s back, that just wrong.”

    –Cornerback Brent Grimes said he hopes to be able to return to practice this week, having missed the last two games with a pulled muscle in his shoulder and back. Grimes said he injured himself in the season opener, but was able to play through it, then reinjured it against Buffalo.

    “I tried to play through it, I just have to wait,” Grimes said. “Hopefully, this week goes well and I can play.”

    [B]NOTES:[/B] DE Williams Gholston passed all neurological exams and returned home with the team Sunday night after suffering a neck injury against the Saints. Gholston will undergo some further testing. … LT Donovan Smith, who had played every snap in three seasons, had to leave Sunday’s game with a knee injury. … G Kevin Pamphile finished Sunday’s game at left tackle against the Saints. … RB Peyton Barber led the Bucs in rushing with 11 carries for 34 yards Sunday, his biggest workload of the season. … QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will start Sunday’s game against the Jets, went 8 of 15 passing for 68 yards with a touchdown Sunday.

    [B]MIDSEASON REPORT CARD[/B]
    [B]
    –PASSING OFFENSE: C[/B] — You have to grade on a curve because Jameis Winston has had a bad shoulder for the past four games. He was great at Buffalo despite the injury, throwing for 384 yards and three touchdowns. But he hasn’t been good the last two weeks. DeSean Jackson has done his job winning on deep routes, but Winston can’t connect with him.
    [B]
    –RUSHING OFFENSE: D[/B] — The Bucs cannot get their running game going. Halfway through the season, they do not have a player who has rushed for 100 yards, and the return of Doug Martin to the lineup has been inconsequential. All this despite the fact that the Bucs moved Ali Marpet to center and J.R. Sweezy came back from an injury that cost him the entire 2016 season.

    [B]–PASS DEFENSE: D[/B] — The Bucs have given up way too many explosive plays in the pass game. The problem is they can’t get any pressure on the quarterback and only have eight sacks in as many games. DE Noah Spence is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Losing CB Brent Grimes for three games has hurt as well.

    [B]–RUSH DEFENSE: C[/B] — The Bucs have been just OK against the run. Adrian Peterson ran wild against them with the Cardinals. The Saints’ backs had their way with Tampa Bay as well. But you have to factor in the injuries to both Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David, who has forced four fumbles.
    [B]
    –SPECIAL TEAMS: D[/B] — P Bryan Anger is a quality player who can kick his team out of trouble or create field position by killing it inside the 20. But the kicking game got the Bucs off to a bad start. After releasing Roberto Aguayo, Nick Folk melted down and had to be released. They may have salvaged the situation with the signing of Patrick Murray.
    [B]
    –COACHING: D[/B] — The Bucs are not responding to head coach Dirk Koetter or defensive coordinator Mike Smith. They did not show much fight on Sunday and it might be a trend.

    #452956

    cnotes
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    [B][I]Opening Line Report – Week 10
    November 6, 2017[/I][/B]

    Here are your opening betting numbers for Week 10 of the NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 3:30 p.m. ET on Monday, with differences among sports books and early moves noted.

    [B][I]Thursday, Nov. 9

    Seattle Seahawks (-6, 41.5) at Arizona Cardinals [/I][/B]

    There’s been early interest in the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals, the opening number of Seattle -6.5 bet down to -5 at CG Technology. Multiple other books moved from -6.5 to -6, and -6 is the consensus number as of this Monday afternoon writing.

    [B][I]Sunday, Nov. 12

    Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 42.5) at Washington Redskins
    [/I][/B]
    Like the Thursday nighter above, this Sunday afternoon tilt saw early money show up on the home underdog, with openers Washington +2.5 bet down to +2, and +2s adjusted to 1.5s.

    [B][I]Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3 even, 41)[/I][/B]

    While an adjustment to this number based on Brett Hundley’s performance Monday night should not surprise bettors, sharp players at CG Technology laid Bears -3, Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at the book, said in a text message.

    [B][I]Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 44.5) and Indianapolis Colts [/I][/B]

    Double-digit road favorites don’t come around often in the NFL – in fact, if this spread holds, it would mark just the second time this season it’s happened. The Steelers were in the same role in the first occurrence, failing to cover as 10-point favorites in a 21-18 win at Cleveland in Week 1.

    As for next week’s number, the +10.5s that have flashed on Vegas boards have been snapped up by underdog players.
    [B][I]
    Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41) at Los Angeles Chargers[/I][/B]

    The Wynn opened Jacksonville -3.5 and was bet up to -4.5 before a move back to -4. While most shops are at 4, Chargers backers can get +4.5 at William Hill.
    [B][I]
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick ‘em, 42)at New York Jets [/I][/B]

    With Monday’s news that the Bucs are shutting down Jameis Winston, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will start against his old mates, the Westgate SuperBook installed the Jets as one-point road favorites. The Bucs were -4.5 on the Westgate’s look-ahead lines hung a week ago. CG Technology is dealing Tampa -1, an adjustment from an opener of -1.5, so we’ll split the difference and call this game a pick ‘em. Make a note that Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans will be suspended for this contest.
    [B][I]
    Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5.5, 40.5) [/I][/B]

    Tennessee -5.5 appears to be the right number, as the Wynn was bet from 5 to 5.5, and the Westgate went from 6 to 5.5.

    [B][I]New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 46.5) at Buffalo Bills[/I][/B]

    New Orleans opened -1.5 at the Westgate on Sunday night, but line was driven up to a field goal at that shop by Monday. That’s the high end of the market, with other shops dealing 2.5s and even 2s.

    The Saints’ current form is among the best in the league – they’ve won six in a row straight-up (5-1 ATS) – but they visit a Bills club that’s a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home.

    Unbeaten at home or not, John Avello, chief oddsmaker at the Wynn, doesn’t like the inconsistency that seems to be inherent in Buffalo.

    “The game at the Jets last week was awful (a 34-21 loss). They have a couple of good efforts in there before that, but they also lost to Cincinnati,” Avello said. “You’re not gonna get a good handle on this team , you’re just not. They’re gonna play well at times , and at times they’re gonna throw in clunkers – you just don’t know when that’s gonna be.”

    [B][I]Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10,41)[/I][/B]

    CG Technology bumped this number from Detroit -9.5 to -10.5 in early wagering, and the Wynn from -9.5 to -10, while the Westgate bounced between -9.5 and -10.

    [B][I]Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5, 46.5) [/I][/B]

    This number opened big and got bet even bigger, from -10.5 to -12 at William Hill. There’s a mix of 11s, 11.5s and 12s as of Monday.

    [B][I]Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5 even, 51)[/I][/B]

    Dallas has won and covered three straight, Atlanta has lost four of five and failed to cash any tickets in that five-game stretch, but the betting market isn’t buying these recent runs. Sharp money on Atlanta -3 showed up at CG, per Simbal, and William Hill was among the books that adjusted from -3 to -3.5 during early betting action.

    “That whole offensive magic that Atlanta had last year is just not there right now,” Avello said. “Is it gonna show up? The bettors keep thinking that it’s gonna show up at some point, it just hasn’t yet. They went from a dog to a favorite against Carolina last week, and it wasn’t there again (the Falcons lost 20-17 as 3-point chalk).”

    Avello pointed out, though, that the Falcons won five of their last six regular-season games last year and seven of their last nine, before going on to the Super Bowl.

    “Maybe that’s what they’re going to do again, but I just don’t see it,” Avello said. “Whatever they had last year they don’t have now, at least through the first eight games of the year. We’ll see if they have it for the next eight.”
    [B][I]
    New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42)[/I][/B]

    As Giants coach Ben McAdoo contemplates benching Eli Manning, the Wynn adjusted its line from Giants -1 on Sunday night to San Francisco -1.5 by Monday.

    [B][I]New England Patriots (-7.5 even, 46.5) at Denver Broncos[/I][/B]

    The Wynn took wiseguy action at an opener of Denver +7.5, prompting a move to +7.5 even, Avello said. This despite the Patriots coming off four straight wins and then a bye week visiting an out-of-sorts Broncos team.

    “Can they put together a good effort at home? Darn right they can,” Avello said of the Broncos. “They’ve done it in the past. But things aren’t going in a positive direction right now.”

    [B][I]Monday, Nov. 13

    Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 40) [/I][/B]

    Most of the early interest has been on Carolina, the number bet from -8.5 to -9 at multiple shops, although Caesars moved in the other direction, from Dolphins +9 to +8.

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