Football Odds — Jets Ready to Unload Pressure on Cassel

Football Odds — Jets Ready to Unload Pressure on Cassel

Last Updated: 2017-03-06

The New York Jets are smack dab in the middle of a run for one of the NFC wild card spots. The Dallas Cowboys are on the outskirts of such a thing, at the very best. On Saturday night these teams get together for a game that could hurt one team’s post-season chances very badly, with the kickoff scheduled for 8:25 PM ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Even after this game begins, BetAnySports customers will have the chance to place their wagers on the action in real time through the facilities of Live Betting Extra.

Yeah, it has been a nightmare for the Cowboys, as they have not only Tony Romo – not once but twice -but have also been sitting through a very uneventful tenure of his substitute, Matt Cassel, who has had some Cowboys fans pining for Brandon Weeden. Last week’s effort was drab at best, as Cassel completed 13 of his 29 passes for 114 yards in a 28-7 loss to Green Bay. In that game, Dallas converted once in eleven third-down opportunities.

The Jets have been a pleasant surprise, virtually from the beginning. They lost their starting quarterback (Geno Smith) as well, but that has turned out to be a blessing, as Ryan Fitzpatrick, a veteran who is more suited for the offense that Chan Gailey, the Jets’ offensive coordinator (and former Dallas head coach) wanted to implement. And the guy has gotten hot over his last three games, with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions.

In the football odds posted on this Saturday game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Jets are laying points on the road:

New York Jets -3 (-120)
Dallas Cowboys +3 (+100)

Over 42 points -110
Under 42 points -110

The Jets are at 8-5 straight-up (also 8-5 ATS), and they are one of three teams in the AFC wild card chase with that record. While they have a tie-breaker advantage over the Pittsburgh Steelers, they would lose out in the three-way scenario, which would also involve the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs. Dallas (4-9 SU & ATS) is still mathematically eligible to win the awful NFC East, and that probably explains why Cassel is behind center, rather than youngster Kellen Moore, who has no bigger fan than Scott Linehan, the team’s offensive coordinator (yes, he has said so). Jason Garrett, meanwhile, insists that “We believe in Matt Cassel.” So it will be up to the journeyman to navigate the Jets’ frequent blitzes.

How often do the Jets come with extra pressure? Well, 41% of the time, and what BetAnySports patrons may not be aware of is that Cassel falls to a level that is below pedestrian when dealing with that kind of thing. In fact, he is only a 44% passer against the opposition’s blitz, and he has been sacked about once in every eight attempts.

The Cowboys rank 11th in the league in rushing, and they know they have to establish something there. But the Jets have surrendered just 110 rushing yards over their last three games, en route to the league-low 79 yards per game they have allowed. As you can imagine, they going will be rough for this Dallas offense, which has scored touchdowns only seven times in 68 possessions with Cassel at the helm.

New York is doing some fundamental things very well. The Jets have allowed Fitzpatrick to be sacked only 15 times (he’s attempted 445 passes). They are the best red zone team in the league (in terms of points allowed per red zone trip) on both offense AND defense. It’s just very hard to construct a scenario by which the Cowboys will take advantage of enough perceived “weaknesses” on the part of this highly-motivated opponent. So although it’s not a monster play,. we will lay the points.

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