Last Updated: 2018-12-07
After a 3-2 day on New Year’s we moved to 21-19 in the bowl games and are now left with the championship game between Alabama and Georgia. The Crimson Tide opened as 4-point favorites and the line is 3.5 or 4 depending on the sportsbook, while the total opened at 45 and is now 44.5 or 45, again, depending on the sportsbook you’re using. Since this is going to be a larger bet than it probably should be for a number of people, you can see the advantage of shopping for the best line, as 4 is one of the key numbers in football.
Surprisingly, these teams haven’t played since 2015 and that one was all Alabama, as the Tide came away with a 38-10 victory. It’s bound to be a little bit closer this time around, as the teams are fairly similar.
The Bulldogs average 36.3 points a game against teams who have allowed an average of 26, so the Bulldogs are a good offensive team and are going to try on you, as they average 6.0 yards per carry against teams who only allow 4.4. Georgia runs 45 times per game and throws 19, but have been efficient when throwing, with an average yards per pass attempt of 8.9 yards.
The Georgia defense allows 15.7 points per game to teams who averaged 29.2 points per game. Georgia was solid against the run, allowing 3.7 yards to teams who averaged 4.7, but weren’t completely dominant stopping the opposing team’s rushing attack. Against the pass, the Bulldogs allowed 56% completions, which was 4.6% lower than their opponents averaged and allowed just 5.8 yards per attempt.
The Tide was a little bit stronger on defense, allowing 11.7 points to teams who averaged 27.6 points and just 2.7 yards per carry to teams who averaged 4.4 yards. Against the pass, the Tide allowed 54.1% to teams who allowed 59.4%.
Alabama scored 37.9 points per game to teams who allowed 26.2 points and also did the majority of their damage on the ground, where they had a 5.8 yard average against teams who allowed 4.4 yards per rush. The tide ran the ball 44 times and passed 23 times per game, so not quite a 2-to-1 ratio, but pretty close.
The special teams are pretty close and could have a say in the outcome, as the teams are pretty close in ability.
This isn’t the greatest game from a betting standpoint, but will have to go ahead and take the under here and hope for a defensive struggle.
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