FL1 Match of the Day Round 35 – Lyon vs. Lille (5/5/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-05-04

Lyon is three points ahead of in-form St Etienne and they must not drop points here but it’s not going to be easy to get a victory over the most pleasant surprise of the season – Lille. The game between Lyon and Lille will take place at Parc Olympique Lyonnais on May 5th, 2019.

LYON vs. LILLE

Three-Way: 1: Lyon -175; X: +300 Draw; 2: Lille +500 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -1: Lyon +104; Lille -114

Total 3 goals: Over -128; Under +104

LYON

Lyon comes into this game after two straight Ligue 1 victories, and have shown the ability to utterly dominate at home, having scored in both halves in nearly half (eight) of their 17 home league outings this season.

In turn, they have lost just three of their last 24 top-flight home matches (W17, D4, L3). However, they face problematic opposition for this one, having won just one of their last six H2H league meetings with Lille on home soil (W1, D2, L3).

Bruno Genesio doesn’t have any new injury-related concerns as only Fernando Marcal (muscle) and Rafael (thigh) are listed as doubtful to face Lille.

Betting Trends:

  • Lyon striker Moussa Dembele has 13 league goals so far, though only five have arrived at home
  • Lyon boasts a league-high average of 7.59 shots on target per home game this season

LILLE

Though unbeaten in their last ten away games in the top-flight (W7, D3), Lille isn’t impregnable in defense, having recorded just five clean sheets in their last 25 away league fixtures. As such, scoring first in this game could be vital for Lille, especially as they are unbeaten in the ten L1 away games in which they have scored the match opener (W8, D2).

On the flipside, however, they have lost four of the five L1 away games in which they have conceded first this term (W1, L4). They are never without hope though, landing 39.11% (79) of their 202 L1 away goal attempts on target, which constitutes L1’s second-best ratio.

Christophe Galtier cannot count on suspended Thiago Mendes and injured Xeka (muscle), while Thiago Maia (ankle) and Adama Soumaoro (thigh) are listed as questionable to feature on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • Lille top scorer Nicolas Pepe has scored 20 league goals, with half coming after the 60th minute
  • The visitors have conceded over half (nine) of their 17 away league goals beyond the 75th minute

Lille won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D4, L2) including two of the last four, while the Great Danes were victorious in the past two meetings at Parc Olympique Lyonnais. The last two duels ended with an identical result, 2-2, but it’s interesting to say that Lyon is without a win in the previous four clashes. The odds are rather low on the host to beat a team who dismantled champions PSG only a couple of weeks ago and even though Lille doesn’t have an extra motivation to play, I am backing them to cover the +1 spread here.

MY PICK: AH +1 Lille (-114)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Lille scored two goals in each of the last four H2H duels and I am pretty sure they will find the back of the net at least once in this one and considering Lyon’s attack of late, I expect to see a goal glut.

MY PICK: BTTS and Over 2.5 (-120)

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