If you’re bummed out about the strength of the field for the FedEx St. Jude Classic this season, just wait because it will be one of the WGC events next year, as the Bridgestone Invitational will become the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and will move to August. For now, it is the final tune-up event for next week’s US Open at Shinnecock Hills, which is why we have a watered-down field on hand.
It makes sense for a tournament benefiting one of the best children’s hospitals in the world to do more to attract players. TPC Southwind in Memphis has hosted this event since 1989 on the 7,244-yard par 70 course. The purse for this event will take a sizable jump as a WGC event, which will certainly attract more players, not to mention what it will do for the Official World Golf Rankings. Right now, players are vying for a cut of $6.6 million and a first-place prize of $1.188 million.
Four of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking are on hand, with Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Henrik Stenson as the three most notable names. Brooks Koepka is the other one, as those four players look to smooth out any rough edges in advance of next week’s major. Daniel Berger has a shot at winning his third straight FedEx St. Jude Classic, but the list of names that has won this thing lately speaks to the type of field we see. Fabian Gomez, Ben Crane, Harris English, Dustin Johnson, Harrison Frazar, and Lee Westwood are the other winners this decade. This is a pretty regular stop for DJ, but a lot of other notables do bypass this event.
The front nine at TPC Southwind is a lot friendlier than the back 9, at least until you get to scoring holes at 15 and 16. This course really doesn’t look that challenging from an aerial view or when standing behind the tee box, but the best winning score here this decade is just 13-under par, which has been done three times. The par 70 element does limit scoring a little bit, so you have to keep that in mind as well, but this is a course that can be challenging. Weather conditions are expected to be quite warm this week, so we could see some hard and fast greens as well.
The favorite this week per 5Dimes Sportsbook is Dustin Johnson at +620. DJ won this event back in 2012 by one shot over John Merrick. At the time, that was just his sixth professional win. Now, Johnson has 17 to his name. He is pretty much a fixture at this event, so we do have a lot of course form data, but we’ll start with his recent form, which is solid. Johnson hasn’t finished lower than 17th in his last five events and finished eighth at the Memorial thanks to a final-round 67. Johnson actually skipped this event last year, but was fifth in 2016 and 24th in 2014. He withdrew in 2015, but he usually does try to make this an annual stop. An out-of-nowhere 75 drove him down the board in 2014 and a 73 did the same in 2016, so if he can avoid a bad Saturday and replicate his other six rounds under par, he’ll be right there.
Brooks Koepka is the second-highest-rated player in the OWGR heading into this week and draws the second favorite role at +985. Koepka is now ninth in the OWGR after his second-place finish at Colonial. He skipped last week’s event at the Memorial in order to gear up for this one and the US Open. Koepka returned from an injury at the Zurich Classic and missed the cut in that team event, but he seems to be back on track with an 11th at TPC Sawgrass and that runner-up in Fort Worth. Koepka has three rounds of 63 over his last two events. In terms of this event, specifically, Koepka was 37th last year, which was a major step down from finishing second in 2016 and third in 2015. He was 19th in 2014. Koepka certainly plays well here and showed at Colonial that his wrist injury is very much in the rearview mirror.
Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson are both +1400 with the next competitors down the board at +2500. This will be Stenson’s first visit to TPC Southwind in six years, so we don’t have a whole lot of usable course form data. Only 13 of this week’s players are playing Shinnecock Hills next week and Stenson is one of them, so he clearly feels like he needs the work. It’s hard to argue, as he’s finished outside the top 10 in his last three events. That’s not to say he has played bad, but he could use a little more consistency. Stenson hit 87.5 percent of fairways and 77.8 percent of greens in regulation last week at Muirfield Village. The putter just let him down.
Phil Mickelson, meanwhile, putted very well at Muirfield Village, but sprayed the ball all over the place on Thursday and put himself too far out of contention. Still, it was a good return for Mickelson, who missed the cut at the PLAYERS Championship. He was 13th last week for his second top-15 of the month. The +1400 price tag isn’t great, but Shinnecock Hills might be a place for Lefty to turn back the clock. Lefty was ninth here last year, second in 2016, and third in 2015.
So, who is a good bet this week? Two-time reigning champion Daniel Berger is +2500 in his quest to become the first back-to-back-to-back winner of an event since Steve Stricker in the 2009-11 John Deere Classic. It really didn’t come easy for Berger last year, though. Kevin Chappell is a good bet this week at +5500. Chappell had four rounds in the 60s last year and finished 22nd back in 2015, including a second-round 64.
Chez Reavie is +6600 this week after a fourth-place finish last year and a 12th in 2016. He didn’t play in 2017. Another course form pick this week is Billy Horschel, but the +2500 price tag is a bit low. Horschel was fourth last year, eighth in 2015, and sixth in 2014.
Coverage of the 2018 FedEx St. Jude Classic will be on Golf Channel and CBS throughout the weekend.
Odds as of June 4, 2:30 p.m. ET:
Dustin Johnson +620
Brooks Koepka +985
Henrik Stenson +1400
Phil Mickelson +1400
Tony Finau +2500
Daniel Berger +2500
Adam Scott +2500
Billy Horschel +2500
Charl Schwartzel +2800
Byeong Hun An +2800
Joaquin Niemann +3300
Peter Uihlein +3300
Luke List +4000
Steve Stricker +4000
Keegan Bradley +4000
Charles Howell III +4000
Russell Knox +5000
Kevin Chappell +5500
J.B. Holmes +6600
Chez Reavie +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Shane Lowry +6600
Scott Piercy +8000
Ryan Palmer +8000
Ollie Schniederjans +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Danny Lee +8000
Brandt Snedeker +8000
Harris English +8000
Keith Mitchell +8000
Ben Crane +8000
Andrew Putnam +10000
Kevin Tway +10000
Grayson Murray +10000
Braden Thornberry +10000
Brian Gay +10000
C.T. Pan +12500
Austin Cook +12500
Corey Conners +12500
Joel Dahmen +12500
James Hahn +12500
Lucas Glover +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Shawn Stefani +12500
Trey Mullinax +12500
Tom Hoge +12500
Tom Lovelady +15000
Tyrone Van Aswegen +15000
Vaughn Taylor +15000
Troy Merritt +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Nicholas Lindheim +15000
Sam Ryder +15000
Seamus Power +15000
John Huh +15000
J.T. Poston +15000
David Lingmerth +15000
Cameron Percy +15000
Bronson Burgoon +15000
Ben Martin +15000
Abraham Ancer +15000
Harold Varner III +17500
Johnson Wagner +17500
Sam Saunders +17500
Scott Stallings +20000
Retief Goosen +20000
Matt Every +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Patton Kizzire +20000
Padraig Harrington +20000
William McGirt +20000
Wesley Bryan +20000
Stewart Cink +20000
Talor Gooch +20000
Ethan Tracy +20000
Fabian Gomez +20000
Chad Campbell +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Brice Garnett +20000
Denny McCarthy +20000
Daniel Summerhays +20000
Ben Silverman +20000
Aaron Baddeley +25000
Cody Gribble +25000
Conrad Shindler +25000
Derek Fathauer +25000
David Hearn +25000
Dominic Bozzelli +25000
Brandon Harkins +25000
Hunter Mahan +25000
Kelly Kraft +25000
John Peterson +25000
Stephan Jaeger +25000
Sung Kang +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Zac Blair +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Nick Taylor +25000
Lanto Griffin +25000
Richy Werenski +25000
Rick Lamb +25000
Ryan Blaum +25000
Robert Garrigus +25000
Robert Streb +25000
Scottie Scheffler +25000
Scott Brown +25000
Cameron Tringale +27500
Brett Stegmaier +30000
Dawson Armstrong +30000
Jonathan Byrd +30000
George McNeill +30000
Greg Chalmers +30000
Eric Axley +30000
Ricky Barnes +30000
Michael Kim +30000
Mackenzie Hughes +30000
Martin Flores +30000
Martin Piller +30000
Adam Schenk +30000
Blayne Barber +32500
Rob Oppenheim +35000
Will MacKenzie +40000
Steve Wheatcroft +40000
Bob Estes +40000
Andrew Yun +40000
Billy Hurley III +50000
Casey Wittenberg +50000
Dicky Pride +50000
D.A. Points +50000
Grant Hirschman +50000
J.J. Henry +50000
Jonathan Randolph +50000
K.J. Choi +50000
Jon Curran +50000
Kyle Thompson +50000
Will Claxton +50000
Tommy Gainey +50000
Troy Matteson +50000
Xinjun Zhang +50000
Zecheng Dou +50000
Roberto Diaz +50000
Matt Atkins +50000
Brendon de Jonge +55000
John Daly +75000
Smylie Kaufman +75000
Johan Kok +100000
David Berganio, Jr. +100000
-END OF 2018 PREVIEW-
Many of the world’s top golfers are taking the week off to prepare for next week’s U.S. Open but there are still 8 of the top 30 in the latest world rankings in the field for the FedEx St. Jude Classic, which begins on Thursday in Memphis. Rickie Fowler is the favorite at odds of +800 with Brooks Koepka the second choice at odds of +1200 and Adam Scott the third choice at odds of +1300. This could be a good week to take a longshot, as the winner of this event has gotten their first PGA Tour win in four of the last six years.
The FedEx St. Jude Classic takes place at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee from June 8th through June 11th with Rickie Fowler listed as the favorite.
Top Contenders
Before we get to the list of top contenders we want to consider what is needed to win at TPC Southwind. The stats that have mattered in the past are Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and Driving Accuracy.
Rickie Fowler +800
Fowler is just 45th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and he is 5th in Strokes Gained” Approach. The concern with taking Fowler is that he has to know the history in that no player has ever won the PGA Tour event the week before the U.S. Open and then gone on to win the Open. I think Fowler is overvalued at these odds.
Brooks Koepka +1200
Flip a coin if you can figure out which Koepka will show up. He can look so good one week and then struggle the next. I don’t like that he is 117th in Approach so I will pass.
Adam Scott +1300
Scott is 30th in Approach and 54th in Off the Tee but his odds are 13-1. I think those odds are simply too low on a golfer who hasn’t won in more than a year.
Francesco Molinari +2000
I really like Molinari this week at odds of 20-1. He is tied for 29th in Off the Tee and 2nd in Approach. He is a very accurate driver and he has spent a lot more time this season on the PGA Tour where he has been in contention than on the European Tour.
Phil Mickelson +2500
Forget about a U.S. Open prep for Phil, as he is skipping next week’s major to go to his daughter’s high school graduation. Mickelson has played well in this event in the past but how excited can you get about taking a golfer who has not won since 2013?
Longshots
If you want a couple of longshots who could hit at a big price then Steve Stricker and Kyle Stanley are worth a look. Stricker has always been known for his driving accuracy and he is still trying to get into the U.S. Open, while Stanley is 7th on the PGA Tour in Approach. They are both listed at odds of 40-1.
This event is played at TPC Southwind, which is a par 70 that is 7,239 yards. It has hosted this event since 1989.
CBS and Golf Channel will provide coverage of the FedEx St. Jude Classic.
FedEx St. Jude Classic Odds
Rickie Fowler +800
Brooks Koepka +1200
Adam Scott +1300
Francesco Molinari +2000
Phil Mickelson +2500
Russell Henley +2500
Billy Horschel +3000
Charl Schwartzel +3000
Daniel Berger +3500
Kevin Chappell +3500
Kyle Stanley +4000
Ryan Palmer +4000
Steve Stricker +4000
Rafa Cabrera Bello +5000
Danny Lee +5500
Ian Poulter +5500
Kevin Tway +5500
Graeme McDowell +6000
William McGirt +6000
J.B. Holmes +6500
Scott Piercy +6500
Harris English +7000
Keegan Bradley +7000
Peter Uihlein +7000
Russell Knox +7000
Ben Martin +7500
Seung-Yul Noh +7500
Stewart Cink +7500
Daniel Summerhays +8000
Jamie Lovemark +8000
Chris Kirk +9000
Smylie Kaufman +9000
Brian Gay +10000
Cameron Tringale +10000
Chad Campbell +10000
Harold Varner III +10000
Nick Watney +10000
Sung Kang +10000
J.T. Poston +12500
Jim Furyk +12500
Xander Schauffele +12500
Bryson Dechambeau +13500
Brandon Hagy +14000
Brian Stuard +14000
Camilo Villegas +14000
Hudson Swafford +14000
Kyle Reifers +14000
Padraig Harrington +14000
Patrick Rodgers +14000
Ricky Barnes +14000
Scott Brown +14000
Vijay Singh +14000
David Hearn +15000
John Huh +15000
Luke List +15000
Matt Jones +15000
Retief Goosen +15000
Chez Reavie +16000
John Peterson +16000
Willy Wilcox +16000
Boo Weekley +17500
Cameron Percy +17500
D.A. Points +17500
Grayson Murray +17500
Kelly Kraft +17500
Scott Stallings +17500
Seamus Power +17500
Sebastian Munoz +17500
Shawn Stefani +17500
Zac Blair +17500
Ben Crane +20000
Blayne Barber +20000
Bob Estes +20000
Chris Stroud +20000
Dominic Bozzelli +20000
Ernie Els +20000
Julian Etulain +20000
Patton Kizzire +20000
Robert Streb +20000
Sam Saunders +20000
Andres Gonzales +22500
Bryce Molder +22500
Jonathan Randolph +22500
Ryan Blaum +22500
Tim Wilkinson +22500
Tom Hoge +22500
Tyrone Van Aswegen +22500
Bill Lunde +25000
Cody Gribble +25000
Fabian Gomez +25000
Gonzalo Fdez-castano +25000
J.J. Henry +25000
Ken Duke +25000
Michael Putnam +25000
Robert Garrigus +25000
Spencer Levin +25000
Tag Ridings +25000
Whee Kim +25000
Alex Cejka +27500
Carl Pettersson +27500
Greg Owen +27500
Hiroshi Iwata +27500
K.J. Choi +27500
Roberto Castro +27500
Troy Merritt +27500
Davis Love III +30000
Joel Dahmen +30000
John Rollins +30000
Johnson Wagner +30000
Nicholas Lindheim +30000
Rory Sabbatini +30000
Ryan Brehm +30000
Bobby Wyatt +35000
Brett Drewitt +35000
Brett Stegmaier +35000
Hunter Mahan +35000
Jason Bohn +35000
Mark Hubbard +35000
Michael Thompson +35000
Nicholas Thompson +35000
Sam Horsfield +35000
Trey Mullinax +35000
Andrew Loupe +40000
Arjun Atwal +40000
Brad Fritsch +40000
Chad Collins +40000
Derek Fathauer +40000
Garrett Osborn +40000
Jordan Russell +40000
Mark Anderson +40000
Martin Flores +40000
Matt Every +40000
Max Homa +40000
Miguel Angel Carballo +40000
Peter Malnati +40000
Richy Werenski +40000
Rick Lamb +40000
Ryan Armour +40000
Steve Wheatcroft +40000
Stuart Appleby +40000
Will MacKenzie +40000
Braden Thornberry +50000
Brian Campbell +50000
Chip Deason +50000
Richie Schembechler II +50000
Zack Sucher +50000
Dicky Pride +60000
S.J. Park +60000
Shane Bertsch +60000
Steven Alker +60000
Tyler Aldridge +60000
Bobby Gates +75000
Steven Bowditch +100000
Oliver Peacock +150000
David Duval +200000
