NHL Daily Picks and Analysis – January 16, 2020

Date | AuthorParker Michaels

Last Updated: 2020-01-16

– Link to Google sheet for game day confirmed starting goaltenders, morning skate injury updates and tracking for projected goaltenders –

– Link to Google sheet for fully documented tracking of all bets placed over past 3 seasons with CLV and ROI for Regular Season, Playoffs and Futures –

Games for Thursday, January 16th

Things finally went our way a bit on the ice last night as Corey Crawford once again put on a stellar display of goaltending in his hometown. The Hawks and Canadiens stayed under the total with the 4-1 Chicago win, giving us a big 1.5 unit winner on the Under 6 and a +160 dog win on the visitors. Unfortunately, we couldn’t complete the sweep with the heavy home favorite Blues. Although St. Louis did manage to rally from two goals down in the third to force overtime, it was all Philadelphia in the extra session as they found the OT winner late. We’ll take the big win on the Total though and move on to a busy Thursday with 13 games on the board.

Your goaltender and injury news has been updated throughout the day in the Google sheet, per usual, and below you’ll find today’s chart with the recommended wagers. Take note for those interested, we have three more dads’ trips tonight which have been marked in the sheet. The Penguins and Sabres kick off their trips while Los Angeles plays their second game with the dads in tow.

I’m pressed for time, so we’ll cut the intro there for today and just a heads up, I’ll be unavailable Friday so there will be no article here on the site and no Google sheet updates. I’ll be back on Saturday for another busy weekend.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Holler at me on the Twitter, @kreatture. And be sure to sign up for a free account here at BangTheBook and turn on the notifications so you get a mobile alert or desktop popup message each time a featured article is posted or updated.

 

 

– END OF JAN 16 REPORT –

 

For those new to my space here, let me tell you briefly about what you’ll find each and every day of the season.

Goalie Projections – There’s two pieces of info most important to hockey bettors when they’re creating their own lines and the first is the starting goaltender. While there’s more and more teams every year now sending out a capable backup, the difference in player value from a team’s number one go-to starter and their number two still plays one of the biggest roles in seeing the gameday odds drastically shift. Knowing in advance which goalie is expected to start can provide a huge edge over the market before it’s publicly known. One of my strengths is projecting each team’s starter with high accuracy. Last season, I began tracking my projections in January against those from the two most recognized sites, Left Wing Lock and Daily Faceoff (in hindsight, I wish I had tracked the full season but honestly, the idea didn’t come to me until January).

Over 1164 projections from January 19 to end of regular season, I had a success rate over 84% and a significant edge over the others.

This season, I’ll be tracking from day one against the two sites above while adding FantasyLabs and Rotowire, two other sites who offer projected starters (if there’s any other sites you guys use, let me know and I may add them, as well). This tracking will be done publicly and can be viewed in a Google Sheet I’ve created for this season (link above).

 

Injuries – The second most important piece of info for serious hockey bettors is the injury list. Again, knowing whether a key player is going to be in or out of the lineup can cause a significant swing in the odds for that game. Having that info before it becomes public knowledge is a huge advantage and while info isn’t easily gathered here, digging into the dirt is another strength of mine and you will usually find the most reliable injury info right here.

A new feature I’ve added this season is a real-time Google Sheet which will be updated during morning skates with up-to-the minute player statuses for game day. This sheet will also update confirmed starting goaltenders throughout the day (and is the same sheet with the tracking for goaltender projections above).

 

Daily Chart – The chart below is why most of you will come here everyday as that’s where all the magic happens (it’s where you’ll find the recommended bets!). Those who were onboard last season will notice a few changes and for those new (and everyone, really), there’s a handy blurb on how to read each column below said chart. I’ll dive into that more in-depth as we go along but for now, it should suffice.

 

Other than the bets themselves, an extremely valuable column in that chart is the Projected Line Movement. It will basically tell you which direction the line should move and help you decide the time of day you should bet the team you like.

Outside of the goaltender/injury projections, my biggest strength is arguably my ability to read the NHL market. Knowing where the line should be, which direction it should move, and finding the optimal time to enter the market. It’s important. Let me say that again. It’s important. Picking winners obviously dictates the success of your bankroll but knowing how to read the market and beating the market will ultimately set you up for that bankroll success.

Some of you will be disappointed to find out there’s no guaranteed winners here. No MAX bombs or play of the day… or month… or year. No flashiness. And no bullshit. It’s impossible to win all of the time, no matter what anyone else might claim (as they try to sell you their shady subscription service which doesn’t track ROI, CLV or provide detailed tracking of all their plays).

Being a real sports bettor is hard work. Everyone wants to quit their real job and be a sports bettor but it’s honestly the hardest thing I’ve ever had to work at in my life – but also the most rewarding. I do this because I absolutely love it and that will come across in my work.

I just want to say thank you to all the readers who have supported this space over the past two years and to all the new ones who are here for the first time. Feel free to drop by anytime with either a comment below or a comment on my Twitter. My DMs are always open. And there’s no dumb questions (especially if you’ll new to this). I’ll always do my best to get back to you before too long.

Lastly, a huge thank you to Adam Burke and the other head honchos here at BangtheBook, for giving me this platform with free reign to produce the type of content I want. Honestly, you won’t find anything like what I’m doing anywhere else, so keep it tuned to BTB right here and also be sure to check out the many other talented writers we have on staff.

Cheers

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