NHL Daily Picks and Analysis – November 14, 2019

Date | AuthorParker Michaels

Last Updated: 2019-11-14

– Link to Google sheet for confirmed starting goaltenders, game day lineups, morning skate injury updates and tracking for projected goaltenders –

– Link to Google sheet for fully documented tracking of all bets placed over past 3 seasons with CLV and ROI for Regular Season, Playoffs and Futures –

Games for Wednesday, November 14th

The Chicago Blackhawks received goals from defensemen Calvin de Haan and Erik Gustafsson just 45 seconds apart to open the second period in Vegas last night, giving them a 3-2 lead and cashing our only bet of the night on the Hawks Over 2.5 Team Total.

It continues a strong run here for us, giving us a total of +15.29 units of profit for the season with a 10.51% ROI. As always, you can find detailed tracking records for each of the past three seasons in the link above.

We’re going to jump right into Thursday and get things going with a few Sides this morning. I found today was one of the more difficult days for projecting starting goaltenders, so I’m going to hold off on a couple of potential Totals until we see confirmation. Be sure to stay tuned to my Twitter feed for a likely addition or two later this afternoon. Let’s get to it.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Holler at me on the Twitter, @kreatture. And be sure to sign up for a free account here at BangTheBook and turn on the notifications so you get a mobile alert or desktop popup message each time a featured article is posted or updated.

 

 

 

Carolina Hurricanes @ Buffalo Sabres

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

ERIK HAULA – Haula was on the ice Wednesday and practiced with the team. It was his first day back after missing the past 4 games with knee soreness. Coach Brind’Amour said he was “iffy right now” for Thursday’s game and still had to speak with the medical team, but since there’s no structural damage to the knee, it’s possible he could suit up.

JORDAN MARTINOOK – Martinook has returned to practice with the team and is currently traveling with them, after undergoing surgery early October. He wasn’t expected to return for about another week but has progressed well enough to be upgraded to day-to-day and could possibly be back as soon as Thursday at Buffalo.

MARCO SCANDELLA – Scandella hasn’t played since October 24, missing the past 6 games, but was a full participant for Wednesday’s practice. Coach Krueger said he was a possibility to return Thursday and Scandella said he felt ready to play. He skated on the 3rd-pair with Henri Jokiharju and although a final decision won’t be made until morning skate, it seems likely Scandella could return to the lineup.

MARCUS JOHANSSON – Johansson was absent from Wednesday’s practice and listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed upper body injury. Coach Krueger said he would be evaluated again Thursday morning and “We don’t expect it to be long-term. It’s really just something we’re being careful about.” It sounds like Johansson is closer to sitting Thursday than playing.

ZACH BOGOSIAN – Bogosian joined the team for his first practice in nearly 8 months on Wednesday and the team upgraded him from Indefinitely to Week-to-Week. He hasn’t missed a team meeting since the season began and has been skating in Buffalo for about a month, so coach Krueger said it shouldn’t take him long to get back.

 

New York Rangers @ Tampa Bay Lightning

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

JESPER FAST – Fast was absent from Wednesday’s practice as he was away dealing with a personal matter. He’s expected to be back with the team Thursday and be in the lineup.

MIKA ZIBANEJAD – Zibanejad didn’t travel with the team and has been ruled out for the rest of this week. He did skate on his own Wednesday which is a positive step for his potential return some time next week.

 

Winnipeg Jets @ Florida Panthers

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

MACKENZIE WEEGAR – Weegar left Sunday’s game against the Rangers after taking a shot off the head and didn’t play Tuesday at Boston. Coach Quenneville said he didn’t have to go to the hospital but hasn’t provided much more of an update. With the Cats off on Wednesday, we’ll have to wait and see if he’s on the ice this morning.

 

Arizona Coyotes @ Minnesota Wild

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

GREG PATERYN – Pateryn is expected to begin practicing with the team later this week after they return home from their road trip which concludes Tuesday at Los Angeles. Coach Boudreau said with how well rookie Carson Soucy has been playing next to defensive partner Brad Hunt, it’s not a given that Pateryn will immediately return to the lineup. The plan is to carry 8 defensemen once Pateryn returns.

 

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

NAZEM KADRI – Kadri was given a maintenance day on Wednesday after dealing with a minor limp from Tuesday’s game. He’s expected to be okay and suit up on Thursday.

PHILIPP GRUBAUER – Grubauer fully participated in Wednesday’s 30-minute practice after also joining the team on ice for Tuesday’s game day morning skate. He’s missed the past 3 games but has been on the ice for 3 straight days now. Antoine Bibeau was recalled from the AHL as insurance but it’s believed Grubauer could dress Thursday and back up Adam Werner.

PAVEL FRANCOUZ – Francouz was starting his 3rd consecutive game for the injured Grubauer on Tuesday but only lasted 31 seconds before leaving with a head injury. The team hasn’t issued an update on his status but he won’t be available tonight.

PIERRE-EDOUARD BELLEMARE – Bellemare suffered a concussion after taking an elbow during Saturday’s game against Columbus. He’s traveling with the team and practiced Wednesday in a no-contact jersey, but coach Bednar said he is still in concussion protocol. He won’t be available again on Thursday.

NIKITA ZADOROV – Coach Bednar said Zadorov could join the team some time on the current road trip but he isn’t with the team in Edmonton and won’t play Thursday.

MIKKO RANTANEN – Coach Bednar said Rantanen could join the team some time on the current road trip but he isn’t with the team in Edmonton and won’t play Thursday.

BRANDON MANNING – Manning suffered a handinjury during Tuesday’s game at San Jose and was placed on IR Wednesday. He’ll miss at least the next 2 games and be eligible to return next Tuesday. Caleb Jones was recalled from the AHL.

 

Dallas Stars @ Vancouver Canucks

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

ROMAN POLAK – Polak took part in the team’s morning skate Wednesday in Calgary and is expected to return to the lineup tonight.

ANDREW COGLIANO – Cogliano left early in Wednesday’s game at Calgary with a lower body injury and did not return. Coach Montgomery said post-game that it wasn’t serious and Cogs could play Thursday at Vancouver, but a final assessment was still to be determined. The Stars will need to recall a forward if he can’t go.

MATTIAS JANMARK – Janmark sat out last night as expected and wasn’t on the ice for the team’s morning skate yesterday. He worked with the strength and conditioning coach and rode the bike, but looked unhindered. He’s doubtful to play tonight but hasn’t been 100% ruled out yet.

ROOPE HINTZ – Hintz isn’t currently with the team but started skating on his own back home. Coach Montgomery said he’s a possibility to return to the lineup when they return home next Tuesday against Vancouver.

JAY BEAGLE – Beagle was expected to suit up for Tuesday’s game against Nashville after taking what was called just a maintenance day on Monday, but was scratched from the lineup. Apparently he’s dealing with some unknown lower body stiffness and is day-to-day. His status for Thursday’s game is unknown.

BRANDON SUTTER – Sutter exited Tuesday’s game against Nashville in the 1st period with an undisclosed lower body injury and didn’t return. The team was off on Wednesday but GM Jim Benning said Sutter had an MRI in the morning which the results weren’t yet available, although it must not have gone well as the team unreportedly placed him on IR, which is expected to be reported Thursday morning. Tyler Graovac and Zack MacEwen have been recalled as reinforcements with Beagle also potentially ailing.

 

San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Ducks

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

HAMPUS LINDHOLM – The Ducks top defenseman is dealing with a nagging lower body injury, the same which kept him out for a pair of games at the end of October. He’s eligible to be activated Thursday but there hasn’t been an update provided on him. It was expected he wouldn’t be ready by today and isn’t believed to have resumed skating, so I’m not expecting to see him return.

 

Detroit Red Wings @ Los Angeles Kings

STARTING GOALTENDERS

INJURY LIST

PATRIK NEMETH – Nemeth was scratched from Tuesday’s game at Anaheim due to illness and was placed on IR Wednesday, retroactive to November 10. He’ll miss at least the next 2 games and be eligible to return next Tuesday against Ottawa. Jonathan Ericsson was recalled from the AHL.

ILYA KOVALCHUK – It was originally reported that Kovalchuk’s time in LA might be done and the team was seeking a trade for the 36-year old. While the team is still exploring trade options, coach McLellan said Wednesday that his time in the lineup may not be finished. Kovalchuk practiced Wednesday with the team and McLellan said they’d take it day-by-day. I’d be surprised if he’s in Thursday’s lineup but we’ll see later.

 

– END OF NOV 14 REPORT –

 

For those new to my space here, let me tell you briefly about what you’ll find each and every day of the season.

Goalie Projections – There’s two pieces of info most important to hockey bettors when they’re creating their own lines and the first is the starting goaltender. While there’s more and more teams every year now sending out a capable backup, the difference in player value from a team’s number one go-to starter and their number two still plays one of the biggest roles in seeing the gameday odds drastically shift. Knowing in advance which goalie is expected to start can provide a huge edge over the market before it’s publicly known. One of my strengths is projecting each team’s starter with high accuracy. Last season, I began tracking my projections in January against those from the two most recognized sites, Left Wing Lock and Daily Faceoff (in hindsight, I wish I had tracked the full season but honestly, the idea didn’t come to me until January).

Over 1164 projections from January 19 to end of regular season, I had a success rate over 84% and a significant edge over the others.

This season, I’ll be tracking from day one against the two sites above while adding FantasyLabs and Rotowire, two other sites who offer projected starters (if there’s any other sites you guys use, let me know and I may add them, as well). This tracking will be done publicly and can be viewed in a Google Sheet I’ve created for this season (link above).

 

Injuries – The second most important piece of info for serious hockey bettors is the injury list. Again, knowing whether a key player is going to be in or out of the lineup can cause a significant swing in the odds for that game. Having that info before it becomes public knowledge is a huge advantage and while info isn’t easily gathered here, digging into the dirt is another strength of mine and you will usually find the most reliable injury info right here.

A new feature I’ve added this season is a real-time Google Sheet which will be updated during morning skates with up-to-the minute player statuses for game day. This sheet will also update confirmed starting goaltenders throughout the day (and is the same sheet with the tracking for goaltender projections above).

 

Daily Chart – The chart below is why most of you will come here everyday as that’s where all the magic happens (it’s where you’ll find the recommended bets!). Those who were onboard last season will notice a few changes and for those new (and everyone, really), there’s a handy blurb on how to read each column below said chart. I’ll dive into that more in-depth as we go along but for now, it should suffice.

 

Other than the bets themselves, an extremely valuable column in that chart is the Projected Line Movement. It will basically tell you which direction the line should move and help you decide the time of day you should bet the team you like.

Outside of the goaltender/injury projections, my biggest strength is arguably my ability to read the NHL market. Knowing where the line should be, which direction it should move, and finding the optimal time to enter the market. It’s important. Let me say that again. It’s important. Picking winners obviously dictates the success of your bankroll but knowing how to read the market and beating the market will ultimately set you up for that bankroll success.

Some of you will be disappointed to find out there’s no guaranteed winners here. No MAX bombs or play of the day… or month… or year. No flashiness. And no bullshit. It’s impossible to win all of the time, no matter what anyone else might claim (as they try to sell you their shady subscription service which doesn’t track ROI, CLV or provide detailed tracking of all their plays).

Being a real sports bettor is hard work. Everyone wants to quit their real job and be a sports bettor but it’s honestly the hardest thing I’ve ever had to work at in my life – but also the most rewarding. I do this because I absolutely love it and that will come across in my work.

I just want to say thank you to all the readers who have supported this space over the past two years and to all the new ones who are here for the first time. Feel free to drop by anytime with either a comment below or a comment on my Twitter. My DMs are always open. And there’s no dumb questions (especially if you’ll new to this). I’ll always do my best to get back to you before too long.

Lastly, a huge thank you to Adam Burke and the other head honchos here at BangtheBook, for giving me this platform with free reign to produce the type of content I want. Honestly, you won’t find anything like what I’m doing anywhere else, so keep it tuned to BTB right here and also be sure to check out the many other talented writers we have on staff.

Cheers

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