NBA Picks and Betting Tips April 16, 2018

Last Updated: 2018-04-16

nba best bets and top picksThe first preview of the playoffs comes with the 3-6 series in the east and the 2-7 in the west. We will breakdown what happened in their game 1s and what both teams project to do in their game 2s.

Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5) vs Miami Heat – o/u 215.5

Key Injuries:

We’re not totally sure about Joel Embiid today yet but he was out for the first game and I find it doubtful that he will be back tonight.

Where’s the value at?

Last game was quite one sided if you look at the box score. The 76ers won by 27, shot 47%, 64% from 3, 10 more paint points, and 7 more offensive rebounds. I don’t think Miami will allow that to happen again. Philly did a great job bolstering their rotation but I doubt we’ll get 4/7 from Belinelli, 3/4 from Ilyasova and 4/6 from both Reddick and Saric going forward. On the flip side, Miami shot 46% from three but still got whooped. Well, 6 more 3s is 18 more points and it’s not hard to make up the last 9 when you also had 10 less total FG makes than the opposition. Miami and Philly both had slight anomalies of games. The Heat had the 7th highest 3PAr in the league while the 76ers shot the 13th most, but Miami was out attempted. Spoelstra will make adjustments and when the home team gets their blowout game one win I like to zag and go against them next.

The Play:

There’s already 80% of bets on Philly and some money has moved the line down from -7 to -6.5 early. Miami is a good team and they’re extremely well coached. Without Embiid this will be a lot tougher of a task for Miami. Expect a good effort from them because a Win isn’t out of the picture.

Golden State Warriors (-9.5) vs San Antonio Spurs – o/u 205.5

Key Injuries:

Steph and Patrick McCaw remain out.

Where’s the value at?

So if you watched the press conference after the last game you’d know Pop is mad. His team didn’t show up and I don’t know if there’s a lot for him to do about it. If you look not too far into the box score it actually wasn’t that bad of a game for them. Golden State just made more shots. The Spurs shot 41% from 3, 40% from the field, and 79% from the line. They got crushed on the boards which was the issue. 51-30, and 10-3 on the offensive glass. The +7 in offensive rebounds gave the Warriors the 12 more buckets very easily. The Spurs don’t need to do a lot to make this game interesting and we have to remember the Warriors are still without Curry. Klay Thompson isn’t going to go 5/6 every game from 3 and 11/13 from the field. Javale McGee won’t go 15 and 4 on 7 shots most games as well.

The Play:

If the Spurs tighten up they can definitely make this one a sweat for Golden State. The line hasn’t moved with the public on Golden State so far but the public is usually wrong and I could see this number finishing at 8.5. Go Spurs Go.

Find me on twitter @manitobamoney for mediocre takes and some more insight that’s slightly less mediocre.

 

-END OF APRIL 16 PICKS-

 

The final preview of the regular season, here it is. We’re focusing on the 3 and 4 seed in the east because how that shakes up is vital for the playoff picture in the East. I’m passing on covering the Minnesota/Denver game because whichever team wins will get throttled by Houston. Thanks for reading throughout the year and I hope to see you in the playoffs.

Philadelphia 76ers (-7) vs Milwaukee Bucks – o/u 218.5

Travel Situations:

Milwaukee is in Philly with 1 days rest after going road, rest, home, rest for the last 4 days.

Philadelphia was in Atlanta last night and won, they play their finale with no rest for a 3rd game in 4 nights.

Key Injuries:

Saric was questionable leaving last game with a “teeth” injury, so we’ll have to wait on today’s injury report. It may be a game time decision. Embiid is obviously out still.

We haven’t gotten an update on Giannis yet but he didn’t play Monday and he’s questionable for today. On donbest.com it even says he’s doubtful.

Where’s the value at?

Tonight’s value really relies on whether Giannis plays or not because the 76er’s need to win tonight. The series between them and the Cavaliers is split but the Cavs have the tiebreaker. Without Embiid, and potentially Saric, this game could be really tight if Giannis plays and steps up. The Bucks have the better offense than the 76ers, and especially if Giannis plays. Without Giannis the Bucks have a -5.3 net rating, and with him on it is +4. That’s a 9.3 swing. For Embiid and Saric it’s a combined +15.5 net rating swing.

The Play:

Until we know the status of Giannis and Saric this game is a pass for me. I’d assume the 76ers just want the best seeding possible so there’s not point for them to fool around. The Bucks with Giannis are always scary though.

Cleveland Cavaliers (-15) vs New York Knicks –o/u 221

Travel Situations:

The Knicks are visiting Cleveland for the final time after losing to them 2 nights ago by 14 on their home court. Revenge?

The Cavs have a similar situation, but they’re heading home for their final regular season game to host the Knicks, a team they dismantled 2 nights ago.

Key Injuries:

The Knicks will be without Mudiay and most likely Tim Hardaway and Enes Kanter tonight.

Cavs will be without Rodney Hood tonight.

Where’s the value at?

I never look at a -15 favorite and say, “Wow that looks like a fantastic bet”. Obviously we’ve had -15 favorites win throughout the year and throughout history but in a revenge spot where the Cavs may not try that hard I feel like the Knicks could put up a bit of a fight. The Knicks will either finish 22nd, or 23rd tonight depending on whether Brooklyn defeats Boston or not, and 24th if they lose and both Brooklyn and Chicago wins. Those scenarios are doubtful. All three teams will probably lose but that doesn’t mean these players don’t want to try. The Knicks’ defense is 25th, which is 4 spots higher than Cleveland’s. Their offense is 21st in the league which isn’t horrific, and we know every team gets a boost playing Cleveland.

The Play:

Teasing the +15 with the over might not be such a bad move. The 15 itself is a nice number and both teams may be able to get some easy offense against one another.

Find me on twitter @manitobamoney for mediocre takes and some more insight that’s slightly less mediocre.

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Power LinesView all

(545) CLEVELAND @ (546) INDIANA | 7:05 pm 12/18/2018

Play Line: INDIANA -12.5
BTB PowerLine: INDIANA -17

Edge On: INDIANA 4.5Bet Now
(547) LA LAKERS @ (548) BROOKLYN | 7:35 pm 12/18/2018

Play Line: BROOKLYN 2.5
BTB PowerLine: BROOKLYN -1

Edge On: BROOKLYN 3.5Bet Now
(549) WASHINGTON @ (550) ATLANTA | 7:35 pm 12/18/2018

Play Line: ATLANTA 4.5
BTB PowerLine: ATLANTA +4

Edge On: ATLANTA 0.5Bet Now