Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Aces and Racers. The game is starting at 4:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Racers at CFSB Center in Murray, KY. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this Missouri Valley conference contest is set at 137.5 points, with Murray State being favored by -8 at home against Evansville.


The Pick: Evansville Aces +8

This game will be played at CFSB Center at 4:00 ET on Saturday, February 10th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Racers.
  • Even though we have Murray State winning straight-up, we like Evansville at +8.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 137.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.

Does Evansville Have What it Takes to Win as Road Underdogs?

Evansville comes into this game as 8-point underdogs, and they have been the underdog in 17 of their 24 games this season. So far, they have gone 9-8 as the underdog.

After winning their last game against Bradley, the Aces are now 15-9 on the season, and they have won four straight games. On the road, their record is 5-7, and their average scoring margin is -10.1 points per game.

As the underdog, Evansville has been solid vs. the spread this season with a 12-5 record. On the road, the Aces are 8-4 ATS and have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games vs. the spread away from home. Over their last three games as the underdog, Evansville is 3-0 vs. the spread.

Evansville’s over/under record for the season is 8-15 and over their last three games, the over/under record is 0-3. The average scoring total in their last three games is 135 points per game.

In their recent matchup, the Evansville offense ended with 73 points against Bradley. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 42.6% and made 8 threes. On the offensive front, the Aces have a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, ranking 178th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 215th in terms of percentage and 266th in three-pointers made.

On defense, Evansville is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 72.4 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Evansville’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 42.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 33.1% this season.

Will Murray State Come Through as Home Favorites?

At home this season, Murray State has gone 4-8, and they have a home average scoring margin of -2.1 points per game. Their current losing streak at home is four games, and they are 3-7 in their last 10 games at home. So far this year, the Racers have been favored in 10 games, going 3-7 in those contests.

Over their last five games, Murray State has gone 1-4, and they are coming off a 69-64 loss to Belmont. For the season, they have a record of 9-15, including a 6-7 mark in Missouri Valley Conference games. In their 24 games, the Racers have an average scoring differential of -2.1 points per game.

As the favorite this season, Murray State has an ATS record of just 2-8. Their home ATS record this year is 3-9 and they have gone just 1-4 vs. the spread in their last five home games. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Racers are just 2-8.

Today’s over/under line of 137.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Murray State’s games this season (142.6). This year, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. However, the average scoring total in their last three games is just 121 points and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 0-10.

Most recently, the Murray State offense finished with just 64 points vs. Belmont. For the game, they hit 6/23 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 36.1%. Leading Murray State in scoring vs. Belmont was Quincy Anderson with his 21 points. Nick Ellington also added 11 points for the Racers.

So far this season, the Murray State defense has been performing well, ranking 80th in the country at 67.8 points allowed per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.7 threes per game vs. Evansville. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 34.3%.