After a successful debut with NFL Prop Bets, I’m back for the MLB season taking a slightly different approach to betting these games. You can find one of the most thorough daily MLB write ups here on this site from Adam Burke so I’ll be doing something a bit different.
Every weekend, I’ll be posting a play from Sunday Night Baseball looking along the edges for opportunities in the prop betting market. Some good bets can be found looking at 1st inning scoring, 1st five innings sides or totals and looking at individual player props. Let’s get creative and have some fun!
We’re back baby! Last week was a success going 5-4 gaining 2.25 units as two of the losses were small stake plays. We missed out on some more profit due to some bad luck with David Dahl getting hurt and leaving early in the game, but that’s the risk you take when betting overs.
Tonight is the finale of a four game series between the Mets in Atlanta (Mets are up 2-1) and also the finale of an amazing sports day full of Master’s drama and playoff NBA/NHL while also being the prequel of a great night of entertainment with Game of Thrones returning. Lots of drama this afternoon! I put the over/under on how many boobs we see tonight at 2.5.
Yesterday’s game between these two was a slug fest and went over 3.5hrs cashing many over player and team total props. Even though we’ve seen 35 runs so far this series, I’m liking tonight to be more of a pitcher’s duel. Throw in some wet and rainy conditions and the players likely watching sports all day (well, probably not) I don’t see them being that enthused for tonight. With that, I’ll be leaning towards a low scoring game and will be targeting some player prop unders, especially those who struggle against DeGrom.
The Mets rank fourth in the MLB in runs scored but also rank sixth in strike outs so I do like Julio Teheran here as he’s had 7k’s in 2 of his 3 starts this year and should hit the mark if he makes it over 5 innings.
Jacob Degrom was dominant in the first two starts but struggled last week versus the twins so I’ll be betting on a strong bounce back against a Braves lineup that hasn’t had much success against him in the past. Acuna and Camargo are the two to watch out for as they’ve put up some decent numbers but their samples are pretty small. Those I’ll be looking to target are Inciarte and Markakis and as their numbers against the potential NL CY Young winner are poor. I especially like going against Inciarte in a match up vs Wilson Ramos who has put up good numbers against Teheran (.357/1HR/4RBI in 14 AB’s) and will be batting in the #5 spot. I’m going to take a flyer on Donaldson as he’s had a hit or more in his last 6 up against Rosario who I want to fade here due to his numbers versus Teheran and recent form.
Overall, I’ll be limiting my bets here, especially when it comes to the game and team totals as I’m worried about the bullpens leaking a few runs late.
In the words of my girl Daenerys “DRACARYS”
No Score in the 1st Inning (+110) 1 unit
Under 27.5 total hits/runs/errors (-125) 1.25 to win 1 unit
1st 5 under 4.5 runs (+105) 1 unit
Julio Teheran over 5 K’s (-120) 1 unit
Wilson Ramos over Ender Inciarte (Runs/Hits/RBIs) (+105) 1 unit
Josh Donaldson over Amed Rosario (Runs/Hits/RBIs) (+100) .5 unit.
Wilson Ramos over 1.5 total bases (+130) .5 unit
Highest Scoring Period – Innings 6-9 (+110) .5 unit
For record keeping, I’ll be using a 1 to 3 unit bet stake where 1 unit will equal $100 and I’ll try to stick to commonly found bets/lines from one of six offshore books. I’ll take the vig into account during my tracking so on a -110 line, I’ll be betting $110 to win $100.
2019 MLB Record = 7W-9L / – $155