EPL Free Pick of the Day Round 37 – Newcastle United vs. Liverpool (5/4/19)

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The Magpies secured their Premier League status for the next season and they are not under pressure, unlike the Reds who need three points to return to the top spot before Man City’s Monday game. The game between Newcastle United and Liverpool will take place at St. James Park on May 4th, 2019.

Newcastle United vs. Liverpool

Three-Way: 1: Newcastle +850; X: +425 Draw; 2: Liverpool -278 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread +1.5: Newcastle -116; Liverpool +106

Total 2.5 goals: Over -133; Under +110

NEWCASTLE UNITED

No league defeat in three matches (W2, D1) has seen Newcastle secure their Premier League status for another season. In truth, their survival turned out to be much more comfortable than expected thanks to their fine home form. The Magpies have won six of their last seven PL home games (W6, L1), netting two or more goals in each victory.

Newcastle won each of their last four home league matches in the month of May, scoring 13 goals and conceding just once. However, their home form this season suggests a clean sheet may be tough to obtain – they have conceded in 13 of their 18 PL home matches so far.

Rafa Benitez will be without Miguel Almiron (thigh), Florian Lejeune (knee), and Sean Longstaff (knee).

Betting Trends:

  • Ayoze Perez has scored in three consecutive PL games to make it seven goals in his last seven top-flight matches
  • Rafael Benitez is yet to beat his former club Liverpool in five previous competitive meetings (D3, L2)
  • Newcastle conceded 33.33% of their league goals after the 75th minute

LIVERPOOL

Liverpool is still in the hunt for PL glory, although they do require a Man City slip-up. They won’t give in easily though and have won their last seven PL matches, with the Reds scoring an average of 2.86 goals per game during that period.

Despite their form, this is a tricky fixture for the Merseysiders. They have won just one of their previous seven league visits to Newcastle (W1, D2, L4) – although that win was an emphatic 6-0 back in 2013.

A 3-0 defeat to Barcelona in the opening leg of the Champions League semis hurt them badly considering they were playing well but at the moment, the Reds must switch focus to the Premier League.

Jurgen Klopp cannot count on Adam Lallana (muscle) and Naby Keita, who suffered a groin injury against Barcelona and will be out for at least two months.

Betting Trends:

  • After a run of six PL games without a goal, Mohamed Salah can boast four in his last four top-flight games – three came in the second half
  • Liverpool lost ten PL away games against Newcastle, only losing more against three other PL sides
  • Liverpool scored 2+ in each of their last three away league matches

Liverpool won five out of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L2) including the last two, while the Magpies were victorious in two of the past three meetings at St. James Park. The Reds are without a win in their last four visits here and this duel will certainly not be an easy one for the visitors and I don’t think they will win by more than a goal difference. That’s why I am backing Newcastle to cover the +1.5 spread.

MY PICK: AH +1.5 Newcastle United (-116)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Five of the last ten H2H duels produced three or more goals but the rivals combined for under 2.5 in each of the previous three meetings at St. James Park. I don’t expect to see a high-scoring affair in this one and I am backing under 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (+110)

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