English Premier League Pick of the Day Round 1 – Manchester United vs. Chelsea (8/11/19)

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-08-09

The Red Devils experienced a disappointing 2018-19 season as they finished in the 6th place, and primary objective for this Premier League campaign is to return to Top 4 and secure Champions League next term. Despite being slight favorites against Chelsea, it’s not going to be an easy game for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side. The match between Manchester United and Chelsea will take place at Old Trafford on August 11th, 2019.

Manchester United vs. Chelsea

Three-Way: 1: Manchester United +125; X: +229 Draw; 2: Chelsea +260 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread -0.5: Manchester United +110; Chelsea -143

Total 2.5 goals: Over +110; Under -110

MANCHESTER UNITED

Manchester United tend to start the Premier League campaign well and have won each of their previous four opening day matches – their joint-longest such run in the competition. Notably, three of those games produced over 2.5 goals.

The Red Devils will be hoping to challenge for the title this season, but to do so, they will need to improve at Old Trafford – especially in defense. They kept just two home clean sheets in the PL last term, their fewest at home in the top-flight since 1962/63. Meanwhile, their average of 1.32 goals conceded per PL home game last season ranked them joint-tenth in the defensive standings.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be without defenders Eric Bailly (knee) and Timothy Fosu-Mensah (knee) while Alexis Sanchez lacks match fitness and he is doubtful to face the Blues on Sunday.

Betting Trends:

  • In the last H2H, Juan Mata became the second player to score for both clubs in Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Man United
  • United have failed to score in just one of their previous five H2H home matches

CHELSEA

Chelsea’s opening day matches tend to be exciting, with each of their last five openers featuring over 2.5 goals, and four seeing both teams score. Strikingly though, expect goals early on as 63.16% of the total goals scored across those games arrived within the opening 45 minutes.

The Blues haven’t won any of their previous six H2H away matches with United (D4, L2). Additionally, they failed to score more than one goal in any of those games. They sold their best player, Eden Hazard, to Real Madrid, and whether new arrival Christian Pulisic can fill Hazard’s shoes, remains to be seen.

Chelsea’s new manager Frank Lampard cannot count on several players. Callum Hudson-Odoi (Achilles tendon), Reece James (ankle), Antonio Rudiger (knee), Ruben Loftus-Cheek (Achilles tendon), and Marco van Ginkel (knee) are all out while Willian is questionable with a thigh injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Marcos Alonso netted in the last H2H, and since his debut in 2016 no defender has scored more Premier League goals
  • Chelsea has not suffered an opening day defeat away from home since 1998/99 (W6, D1)

Chelsea won four of the previous ten H2H encounters (D3, L3), but are without a win over the Red Devils in the last three duels. Manchester United is without a home loss in the previous six H2H meetings. United failed to get three points in the last three home games in the Premier League, and considering that four of the past six H2H duels at Old Trafford ended without a winner, I am going with a draw in this one.

MY PICK: Draw (+229)

ADDITIONAL PICK: Games between Manchester United and Chelsea are usually not high-scoring, and given the recent H2H matches, I don’t think we’re going to see more than a couple of goals here. Only three of the last 13 H2H clashes produced over 2.5 goals, and that’s why I am backing under 2.5 goals.

MY PICK: Under 2.5 (-110)

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