The Blue Devils and Tar Heels are set to face off at 6:30 ET on ESPN. The Tar Heels will host the game at Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC. The over/under for this game is set at 151.5 points, and North Carolina is favored by -5 vs. Duke in a Atlantic Coast conference matchup.


The Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -5

This game will be played at Dean E. Smith Center at 6:30 ET on Saturday, February 3rd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Tar Heels.
  • Not only will North Carolina pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 151.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Can the Blue Devils Lock in a Road Win?

In their last game, Duke defeated Virginia Tech by a score of 77-67. Over their last ten games, the Blue Devils have gone 7-3 on the road. On the season, they have an average scoring margin of +5.3 points per game on the road.

So far this season, Duke has been the favorite in 19 of their 20 games and has gone 15-4 in those matchups. For the year, they have an overall record of 16-4 and have won three games in a row.

As the underdog, Duke has gone 0-0 vs. the spread this season. Overall, the Blue Devils are 9-10 ATS this year. On the road, Duke has gone 2-4 vs. the spread this season and over their last 10 road games, they are 4-6 vs. the spread as the underdog.

Today’s over/under line of 151.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Duke’s games this year (146.4). So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 146 points.

The Blue Devils’ offense wrapped up their last game with 77 points, aligning closely with their current season average of 81 points per contest. In terms of offense, the Blue Devils have a season-long field goal percentage of 48%, putting them 56th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 39th in percentage and 104th in three-pointers made.

This season, the Duke defense has been impressive, holding the 72nd position in the country while permitting an average of 67.2 points per contest. Against Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils’ defense gave up 67 points and did a good job not fouling. For the game, Virginia Tech only made 6 free-throws.

Will the Tar Heels Find a Way to Win at Home?

North Carolina comes into this game with a record of 17-4, including a 9-1 mark in Atlantic Coast Conference play. They have been especially dominant at home, going 11-1 with an average scoring margin of +19.3 points per game.

Coming off a 74-73 loss to Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels have gone 5-0 in their last five games at home. They have been favored in 19 of their 21 games this season, going 16-3 in those contests.

As the favorite, North Carolina has a solid ATS record of 12-7 this season. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Tar Heels are an impressive 8-2 vs. the spread. In their last 3 home games, North Carolina has gone 2-1 ATS.

Today’s over/under line of 151.5 is lower than the average over/under line in North Carolina’s games this season (153.6). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 145 points and their over/under record for the season is 10-11.

Coming off their recent game, the North Carolina offense tallied 73 points in a matchup against Georgia Tech. Their field goal percentage for the game was 36.4%, and they made 8 threes. One area that the North Carolina offense has been good this season is getting to the line. Currently, they are 17th in free-throw attempts per contest. Overall, they have a field goal percentage of 45%.

The Tar Heels’ defense is presently ranked 109th nationally, allowing an average of 69.2 points per contest. North Carolina’s three-point defense is currently 114th in the country at 6.8 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 39.9% of their shots vs. North Carolina.