Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Free Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Nicholas Castellanos and the slumping Detroit Tigers are traveling south to Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to square off against their division rival Kansas City Royals. Fox Sports Kansas City will be televising the matchup and the opening pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Odds

The Tigers are only 28-57 SU and are 35-50 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 18.3 units for moneyline gamblers and 20.1 units ATS. The Royals, on the other hand, are 30-61 SU and 42-49 ATS. They’ve lost 20.3 units for moneyline bettors and 19.2 units ATS.

Neither side has established itself as a strong over/under play this season. Kansas City games have an over/under record of 43-41-7 thus far in 2019. Detroit has an over/under record of 39-41-5.

The right-handed Spencer Turnbull is the probable starter for Detroit. Turnbull is 3-8 with a 3.31 ERA and 84 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with 22 strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA against Kansas City this year (three starts).

The Royals are putting the ball in the left hand of Danny Duffy (3-5, 4.28 ERA), who has 61 strikeouts and 29 walks as well as a 1.35 WHIP. Duffy is 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 2.57 ERA in one start against Detroit this year.

As a unit, Kansas City’s pitching staff has given up 5.2 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starters have a 5.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 39 games against AL Central opponents, Royals starters have an ERA of 3.78 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.23.

The Kansas City hitters have put up 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 2.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .220/.274/.299 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

The Royals’ batters have been led by second baseman Whit Merrifield and left fielder Alex Gordon. Merrifield is hitting .306/.355/.495 with 11 home runs, 44 RBIs, 62 runs and 13 stolen bases, and Gordon’s line is .275/.352/.447 with 10 homers, 55 RBIs and 47 runs.

For the visiting squad, Detroit’s pitchers have allowed 5.5 runs per game and its starters own a 4.94 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 8.36 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.02, along with a K/9 of 7.95.

Tigers hitters have slashed .233/.296/.382 on their way to 3.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Detroit’s offensive production has been fueled by Nicholas Castellanos and Miguel Cabrera. Castellanos is hitting .282/.342/.468 with nine home runs, 33 RBIs and 48 runs scored, while Cabrera (.304/.368/.399) is up to five homers, 36 RBIs and 22 runs scored.

The Tigers have lost 1.0 units and are 8-8 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 10 of those games, as opposed to five that’ve hit the under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Royals have lost 15.2 units and are 30-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 32 of those games, as opposed to 30 which went under the total.

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Royals, ATS Winner – Tigers, O/U – UNDER


Betting Notes

The under has cashed in three of Kansas City’s last seven games.

The Tigers have a team OPS of .677 this season and an OPS of .690 against left-handed pitchers. The Royals’ OPS stands at .709 overall and .678 against southpaws.

The Tigers have lost six of their last seven games SU while the Royals have dropped six of their last seven.

Detroit has posted 23.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 28.8 over its last five.

The Tigers have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.

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