Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction 01/03/18

 
Wednesday, 01/03/2018 at 07:35 pm DETROIT (20-16) at MIAMI (20-17)
Expanded Matchup Bet Now Results Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics
Teams Line PF PA SU ATS O/U/P FG% FT% 3PT% FG% FT% 3PT%
709DETROIT 196 102.2 101.3 20-16 20-14-2 14-21-1 44.8% 75.6% 37.9% 46.4% 77.8% 37.2%
710MIAMI -2 100.7 102.2 20-17 16-19-2 13-22-2 45.6% 76.4% 37.1% 45.7% 78.6% 37.9%

Last Updated: 2018-01-03

The Detroit Pistons (20-15), 3-point underdogs, will travel to AmericanAirlines Arena to clash against the Miami Heat (19-17). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 195.5 points and it can be seen on Fox Sports – Detroit at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 3, 2018.

Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

Both teams were victorious over their last opponent. The Heat defeated the Orlando Magic 117-111, while the Pistons beat the San Antonio Spurs 93-79.

Detroit dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had an effective field goal percentage of 0.494 (below their season average of 0.511) and a turnover percentage of 11.1 (better than their season average of 12.6). San Antonio was 0.399 and 13.5, respectively, for those same stats. Meanwhile, Miami dominated nearly every facet of their game. They had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 7.7 (better than their season average of 14.1) and a free throw rate of 0.170 (matching their season average). For those same stats, Orlando was 12.0 and 0.136, respectively. Miami’s Tyler Johnson played well, putting up 31 points. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond was a key piece for Detroit with 14 points, 21 rebounds and six assists.

Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams face off. Miami ranks 27th in possessions per game (96.7) and Detroit is 22nd (97.4).

Of the Pistons’ 35 games, 21 have finished under the total. Detroit heads into the contest with records of 20-15 straight up (SU) and 20-13-2 against the spread (ATS).

Games involving the Heat also have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (61.1 percent). Further, Miami owns records of 19-17 SU and 15-19-2 ATS.

The Pistons’ Ish Smith has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 11.8 points and 4.4 assists per game. Meanwhile, Josh Richardson has averaged 18.8 points and 4.0 assists during that same time frame for the Heat.

In their first matchup this year, Tobias Harris led the Pistons to a 112-103 victory. He scored a game-high 25 points. The two teams combined to put up 215 points, which was well over the projected point total of 200, and Detroit covered as a 2-point favorite. The Pistons’ offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Heat. Detroit had a rate of 25.6, while Miami posted a mark of 14.0.

Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat Betting Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Pistons, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Notes:

Detroit ranks 10th in second chance points per game (13.3) while Miami ranks 29th (9.4).

The Pistons rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.6) while the Heat rank 17th (16.8).

Detroit ranks 16th in fast break points per game (10.5) while Miami ranks 28th (7.4).

The Heat rank 13th in blocks per game (4.8) while the Pistons rank last (3.3).

The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.3) while the Pistons rank 10th (27.1).

Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.7) while Detroit ranks 21st (23.9).

When holding opponents under 100 points, Detroit is 11-4 and Miami is 13-3.

When reaching the century mark, the Pistons are 17-4 and the Heat are 14-6.

Detroit is 11-6-1 ATS on the road, while Miami is 4-11-2 ATS at home.

The total has gone under in 12 of the Pistons’ 18 road games, while 10 of the Heat’s 17 home games have gone under.

Bettings Trends:

In their last five games, Detroit and Miami have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.

The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Pistons are 2-3.

The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 1.8 for the season.

During their last five games, the Pistons have scored an average of 97.2 points per game (4.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 95.0 points per game (6.0 below their season average).

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