In a non-conference matchup, the Miami Heat will host the Denver Nuggets at 7:30 ET. ESPN will televise the game, which will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami.

Denver (-198) is currently favored by five points over the Heat (+163). The over/under line is set at 214.5 points.

DENVER NUGGETS VS MIAMI HEAT BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Heat +5

This game will be played at Kaseya Center at 7:30 ET on Wednesday, March 13th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI HEAT:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 113-111 in favor of the Heat.
  • Our projections have Terry Rozier finishing with Terry Rozier points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Heat finishing with a field goal percentage of 46.7% and knocking down 11 threes.

Will Denver Come Through as Road Favorites?

The Nuggets have won three straight games and are 45-20 overall, which is good for 2nd place in the Western Conference. In non-conference games, Denver is 20-6 compared to 25-14 against the West.

As the favorite, the Nuggets have a record of 41-14 and have been favored in 55 of their 65 games. In their last two games as the favorite, they have covered the spread and have an ATS record of 24-29.

Denver’s O/U record for the season is 25-38-2, and the over has hit in three straight games. This season, their games have averaged 225.7 points per game.

In their last game, the Nuggets beat the Raptors by a score of 125-119. The O/U line for that game was 231, and Denver was favored by 17 points going into the game.

On the road, the Nuggets are 18-14 straight-up and 13-18 ATS. Today’s O/U line of 214.5 is lower than their season average of 227.4.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets are averaging 115 points per game this season, which is 15th in the league. However, their scoring numbers are slightly better at home, where they are averaging 118.9 points per game.

So far, the Nuggets have outscored the NBA scoring average in 49.2% of their games this season. In terms of field goal percentage, Denver is 4th in the league at 49%. They are also one of the top teams in two-point shooting, connecting on 56% of their attempts.

Despite being one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, the Nuggets are just 27th in three-pointers made per game. Overall, they are 14th in three-point shooting at 36%. In terms of free throws, Denver is 29th in the league in both attempts and makes.

This season, the Nuggets’ defense is the 7th ranked defense in the NBA at 7th PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 69.2% of their games. Denver’s defense is currently forcing 11.8 turnovers per game, which is 5th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 11th in blocked shots, with an average of 5.6 rejections per game.

Will the Heat Pull Through as the Home Underdog?

Miami has lost three straight games as the favorite, and they are the underdog again today. Against the spread, they are 12-19 at home and have failed to cover in three straight games at home.

In their last game against the Wizards, the Heat lost 110-108 as 11.5-point favorites. The O/U line for that game was 228.5, and Miami’s ATS record for the season is 30-31.

This season, Miami has an O/U record of 24-40, and the under has hit in three straight games for them. Today’s O/U line is set at 214.5, which is lower than their season average of 220.4.

In the Eastern Conference standings, the Heat are currently in 8th place with a record of 35-29. In the Southeast Division, they are in 2nd place. As the underdog, Miami is 10-18 this season.

In non-conference games, the Heat have gone 12-12 compared to 23-17 against the East. On the road, they are 18-15 straight up and 18-12 ATS. At home, Miami is 17-14 (12-19 ATS).

This season, the Heat have been an average team when it comes to scoring, averaging 110.5 points per game, which is 27th in the league. At home, Miami has been slightly better, averaging 113.5 points per game.

In terms of their scoring, the Heat have been below the NBA scoring average in 60.9% of their games this season. Over their last three games, Miami has scored less than their season average.

When it comes to the pace of play, the Heat are 29th in the league, averaging just 96.1 possessions per game. In terms of field goal percentage, Miami is 21st in the league at 46%.

At present, the Heat’s defense is ranked 6th, allowing 109.9 points per game. Miami’s defense is currently forcing 12.1 turnovers per game, which is 8th in the league. Additionally, they enter the game ranked 30th in blocked shots, with an average of 3.4 rejections per game.