Home NBA Free NBA Picks Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds Pick 03/11/20

Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Odds Pick 03/11/20

The Dallas Mavericks (39-27) will be at home in the American Airlines Center when they square off against the Denver Nuggets (43-21). Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 11, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPN.

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks Odds Preview

The Nuggets defeated the Milwaukee Bucks in their last matchup, 109-95, covering as 7.5-point favorites. With 20 points and 10 rebounds, Denver’s Paul Millsap put together a solid performance. The Nuggets forced 17 turnovers and held the Bucks to an effective field goal percentage of 0.461 (below their season average of 0.554). The two teams combined to put up 204 points, which finished well under the projected point total of 220.5.

The last time the Mavericks took the floor, they were beaten by the San Antonio Spurs, 119-109, and were unable to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. Luka Doncic was the game’s high scorer with 38 points on 13-for-26 shooting. San Antonio did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (12-15; 80.0 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.6 (below the 22.9 mark opponents have averaged against Dallas this season). The two teams combined to score 228 points, which came in over the projected point total of 219.

Dallas figures to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Mavericks rank first in offensive efficiency, while Denver ranks 13th in defensive efficiency.

Of Denver’s 64 games, 34 have finished under the O/U total, while 40 of Dallas’ 65 games have finished over the projected point total. The Nuggets have the superior straight up (SU) record (43-21 vs. 39-27), but the Mavericks hold the sizable advantage against the spread (ATS) (37-28 vs. 28-30-6).

These two teams have met twice already this year, each winning once. Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 33 points in the most recent contest, in which the Nuggets, who were 4.5-point underdogs, beat the Mavericks 107-106. He also put up seven assists and six rebounds. The two teams combined to put up 213 points, which was 10.5 points below the projected point total of 223.5 points. The Nuggets’ 22.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Mavericks, who had a mark of 17.1.

Nuggets vs. Mavericks Odds Prediction

NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Nuggets rank 10th in steals per game (8.2) while the Mavericks rank 27th (6.2).

Denver ranks 13th in points off turnovers per game (17.0) while Dallas ranks 26th (14.7).

Denver ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while Dallas ranks 23rd in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).

Dallas ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Denver ranks ninth (4.5).

Dallas is 14-19 ATS at home, while Denver is 13-15-3 ATS on the road.

The total has gone under in 16 of the Nuggets’ 31 road games, while 21 of the Mavericks’ 33 home games have gone over.

When holding opponents below 100 points, Dallas is 10-0 and Denver is 15-1.

In games where they score more than 100 points, the Mavericks are 39-25 and the Nuggets are 40-16.

The Mavericks rank fifth in rebounds per game (46.9) while the Nuggets rank 19th (44.3).

Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.6) while Denver ranks 26th (30.3).

The Nuggets rank fifth in points in the paint per game (49.6) while the Mavericks rank 26th (44.4).

The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.6) while the Mavericks rank 14th (24.5).

Denver ranks seventh in fast break points allowed per game (12.5) while Dallas ranks 28th (16.8).

Bettings Trends:

Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs in its last five games.

Across its last five outings, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.

The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, down from 5.9 for the season.

During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (1.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (1.6 above their season average).

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