The Cleveland Cavaliers (17-45) will be at home in Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse when they challenge the Denver Nuggets (42-20). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 7, 2020, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds Preview
In the Nuggets’ last outing, they barely escaped the Charlotte Hornets, 114-112, but were not able to cover as 10-point favorites. With 14 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic put together a good outing. Denver played a nearly perfect game. They had a ridiculous offensive rebounding percentage of 34.2 (above their season average of 25.0) and a turnover percentage of 11.6 (better than their season average of 11.6). For those same stats, Charlotte was 26.5 and 12.7, respectively. The two teams combined to score 226 points, which came in well over the projected point total of 208.5.
The Cavaliers are hoping to rebound after not being able to cover as 4-point underdogs in their 112-106 loss to the Boston Celtics in their last matchup. With 26 points, 14 rebounds and five assists, Cleveland’s Kevin Love had a solid game. Boston did a great job of converting from the free throw line (21-26; 80.8 percent). Cleveland, on the other hand, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 32.1 (above their season average of 24.5). The two clubs combined to score 218 points, which was just over the O/U total of 215.
These two clubs have already met once this season. The two teams combined to score 214 points in that game, which was just under the projected point total of 216.5. The Cavaliers won 111-103, covering as 13-point underdogs. The Cavaliers’ 27.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Nuggets, who had a rate of 20.4. Jokic had a double-double in the loss with 19 points and 12 rebounds.
Of Denver’s 62 games, 32 have finished under the projected point total, while 34 of Cleveland’s 62 games have finished over the projected point total. The Nuggets have the significant advantage straight up (SU) (42-20 vs. 17-45), but both teams have comparable against the spread (ATS) records. Denver is 27-29-6 ATS, while Cleveland is 27-32-3 ATS.
The offensive glass should be a solid edge for Cleveland in this contest. The Cavaliers currently rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.6 percent), while Denver ranks 19th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent). Furthermore, the Nuggets, who rank 23rd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.183), will face off against the Cavaliers, who rank second in opponents’ FTA rate (0.164).
Denver Nuggets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers ATS Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
The Nuggets rank 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while the Cavaliers rank last (6.5).
Denver ranks fifth in second chance points per game (14.4) while Cleveland ranks 11th (13.6).
Denver ranks 10th in steals allowed per game (7.1) while Cleveland ranks 29th (9.3).
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (42.7) while Cleveland ranks sixth (43.0).
Denver is 13-14-3 ATS on the road with 15 overs and 15 unders.
At home, Cleveland is 12-20-2 ATS with 19 overs, 14 unders and 1 push.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Cleveland is 5-3 and Denver is 14-1.
The Cavaliers are 16-32 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 39-15.
The Cavaliers rank 20th in three pointers attempted per game (32.0) while the Nuggets rank 26th (30.1).
Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (50.0) while Cleveland ranks last in points allowed in the paint per game (53.8).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (26.5) while the Cavaliers rank 29th in assists allowed per game (26.3).
The Nuggets rank 23rd in fast break points per game (11.5) while the Cavaliers rank 28th (10.5).
Denver ranks sixth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1) while Cleveland ranks 28th (19.9).
Cleveland is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.
Across its last five outings, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
The Cavaliers’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 5.2, down from 8.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 113.0 points per game (2.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.2 points per game (7.6 above their season average).