Last Updated: 2019-03-21
The Dallas Mavericks (28-43) can put an end to an eight-game road losing streak when they challenge the Sacramento Kings (34-36) at Golden 1 Center. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 229 points with Sacramento set as an 8.5-point favorite. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 21, 2019, and it can be seen on NBC Sports – California.
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings ATS Preview
The last time the Mavericks played, they fell to the Portland Trail Blazers, 126-118. They were not able to cover as 5-point underdogs. With 24 points on 8-for-16 shooting, Luka Doncic led Dallas in scoring. Portland held the Mavericks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.3 (below their season average of 23.0). Dallas, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 12.1). The two teams combined to put up 244 points, which came in over the projected point total of 232.
The Kings were unable to cover as 3.5-point favorites in their 123-121 loss to the Brooklyn Nets in their last contest. With 27 points and nine assists, De’Aaron Fox had a solid outing for Sacramento. Brooklyn did a great job of converting from the free throw line (17-23; 73.9 percent). Sacramento, meanwhile, had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.8 (above their season average of 22.5). The two clubs collectively scored 244 points, which was over the O/U total of 231.
These two clubs have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to put up 233 points, which was over the projected point total of 222. The Kings won 120-113, covering as 5-point underdogs. Sacramento had a better turnover percentage (7.7 vs. 11.3). Dallas, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.8 vs. 22.9). Fox was a top performer in the victory, with 28 points and five assists.
Of Dallas’ 70 games with betting action, 38 have finished under the O/U total, while 35 of Sacramento’s 70 games have finished over the projected point total. The Kings have the sizable advantage straight up (SU) (34-36 vs. 28-43) and a narrow edge against the spread (ATS) (41-28-1 vs. 39-30-1).
It will be a battle of conflicting paces as the up-tempo Kings (ranked fifth in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the slower-paced Mavericks (21st in possessions per game). Ball protection could be troublesome for the Mavericks. They rank 24th at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.9 percent), while the Kings force the fifth-most turnovers in the NBA (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.8 percent).
Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings Free Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Kings, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Under
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The Mavericks rank 10th in rebounds allowed per game (44.4) while the Kings rank last (48.4).
Dallas ranks 12th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5) while Sacramento ranks 27th (51.8).
Dallas ranks 11th in second chance points allowed per game (12.9) while Sacramento ranks 27th (14.4).
Sacramento ranks 23rd in blocks per game (4.5) while Dallas ranks 25th (4.3).
Dallas is 17-17 ATS on the road with 17 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
At home, Sacramento is 23-12-1 ATS with 20 unders, 15 overs and 1 push.
Dallas is 10-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Sacramento is 10-0.
When scoring over 100 points, the Mavericks are 27-33 and the Kings are 32-32.
The Kings rank seventh in steals per game (8.5) while the Mavericks rank 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.1).
Sacramento ranks first in points off turnovers per game (19.7) while Dallas ranks 28th (14.9).
The Kings average 21.1 fast break points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Mavericks rank 28th in fast break points allowed per game (16.2).
The Kings rank 11th in assists per game (25.5) while the Mavericks rank 16th in assists allowed per game (24.6).
Dallas averages 35.8 three pointers per game, which ranks fourth in the league. Sacramento ranks 28th in three pointers allowed per game (34.1).
Sacramento is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push in its last five games.
Across its last five games, Dallas is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
The Kings have outscored opponents by an average of 0.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Sacramento has been defeated by an average of 1.0 point.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 113.6 points per game (5.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 116.6 points per game (6.5 above their season average).