Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Betting Pick 01/31/20

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Expect a shootout when the Houston Rockets (29-18) and the Dallas Mavericks (29-18) square off at Toyota Center. Action begins at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, January 31, 2020, and it can be seen on ESPN.

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The Mavericks got blown out by the Phoenix Suns in their last contest, 133-104, despite being 7-point favorites. Dallas’ Luka Doncic had a solid performance, leading the team in scoring with 21 points on 7-for-15 shooting. Phoenix was lights out from beyond the arc (12-28; 42.9 percent). Dallas, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (23-27; 85.2 percent). The two teams combined to put up 237 points, which finished over the projected point total of 228.5.

In the Rockets’ last game, they were 5-point favorites and were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 125-112. Russell Westbrook was the game’s leading scorer with 39 points on 16-for-29 shooting. Portland did a great job of converting from the charity stripe (20-27; 74.1 percent). Houston, on the other hand, forced the Trail Blazers into a turnover percentage of 15.1 (above their season average of 11.1). The two squads collectively scored 237 points, which was under the O/U total of 243.

These two clubs have already met once this season. The two teams combined for 260 points in that game, which was well over the projected point total of 229. The Mavericks won 137-123, covering as 6-point underdogs. Dallas had a better effective field goal percentage (0.564 vs. 0.510). Houston, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (30.6 vs. 23.5). Doncic put up a double-double in the victory with 41 points and 10 assists.

These two teams are complete opposites in terms of the O/U total. Games featuring Dallas have gone over 59.6 percent of the time, while Houston games have gone under 55.3 percent of the time. Both teams have respectable straight up (SU) records (29-18 for Dallas; 29-18 for Houston), but the Mavericks have the edge against the spread (ATS). Dallas is 27-20 ATS, while the Rockets are 23-24.

This matchup figures to be a shootout as a pair of the NBA’s best offenses clash. Houston currently ranks third with 111.5 points per 100 possessions and Dallas is first (114.6).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets Free Prediction

Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over

Notes

Betting Notes:

The Mavericks rank second in second chance points per game (14.8) while the Rockets rank 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).

Dallas ranks 10th in assists allowed per game (23.5) while Houston ranks 25th (25.6).

Dallas ranks fourth in rebounds per game (47.3) while Houston ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.2).

Houston averages 47.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks 16th in the league. Dallas ranks 19th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.9).

Houston is 11-11 ATS at home, while Dallas is 17-5 ATS on the road.

The total has gone over in 11 of the Rockets’ 22 home games, while 13 of the Mavericks’ 22 road games have gone over.

In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Dallas is 8-0 and Houston is 3-0.

When scoring more than 100 points, the Rockets and Mavericks are both 29-16.

The Rockets rank 12th in steals per game (7.9) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.2).

Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (41.2) while Houston ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (35.7).

The Rockets rank eighth in fast break points per game (14.4) while the Mavericks rank last in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).

The Mavericks rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.9) while the Rockets rank 13th (5.0).

Dallas ranks fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.7) while Houston ranks 24th (18.1).

Bettings Trends:

Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders in its last five games.

Across its last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.

The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 4.0 for the season.

During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (4.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 115.4 points per game (5.4 above their season average).

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