Last Updated: 2019-12-28
The Golden State Warriors (9-24) will be at home in the Chase Center when they go head-to-head with the Dallas Mavericks (20-10). Dallas is a 10.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218 points. Action gets underway at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 28, 2019, and it can be seen on NBC Sports – Bay Area.
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors ATS Preview
In the Mavericks’ last contest, they were victorious over the San Antonio Spurs, 102-98, but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. Luka Doncic was the game’s high scorer with 24 points on 9-for-23 shooting. The Mavericks held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.4 (below their season average of 21.3) and had a better turnover percentage (12.7 vs. 12.7). The two teams combined to score 200 points, which came in well under the projected point total of 226.
The Warriors come in on a high note after defeating the Phoenix Suns in their last outing, 105-96, as 11-point underdogs. Golden State rallied around D’Angelo Russell, who led the team in scoring with 31 points on 10-for-25 shooting. Golden State’s 8.8 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Phoenix, who had a rate of 23.3. The Warriors’ mark was better than their season average of 12.6, while the Suns’ was above their season average of 12.1. The two clubs collectively scored 201 points, which was well under the O/U total of 230.
The high-powered offense of Dallas (first in the NBA with an offensive efficiency of 114.3) will battle against the bottom-tier defense of Golden State (23rd in the league with a defensive efficiency of 109.8). The Mavericks should have the advantage on that end of the court.
In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Games involving Dallas have gone over 63.3 percent of the time, while 56.3 percent of Golden State games have gone under. The Mavericks hold a sizable advantage in terms of straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records. They are 20-10 SU and 18-12 ATS, while the Warriors are 9-24 SU and 15-17 ATS.
Both teams have had a player heat up over their last five games. For the Mavericks, it’s been Kristaps Porzingis, who has averaged 22 points,13.8 rebounds,2.6 blocks, while the Warriors have gotten great contributions from Russell (22 points,6.0 assists).
These two teams have already met once this season. In that game, the two teams combined to score 236 points, well over the projected point total of 215.5. The Mavericks won 142-94, covering as 15-point favorites. The Mavericks dominated nearly every stat category in the game. They had a fantastic effective field goal percentage of 0.689 and an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.2. The Warriors put up marks of 0.433 and 17.6, respectively, for those same stats. Doncic put up a triple-double in the victory, with 35 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds.
Mavericks vs. Warriors Free Prediction
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
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The Mavericks rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.0) while the Warriors rank 23rd (18.3).
Golden State averages 13.3 fast break points per game, which ranks 14th in the league. Dallas ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (16.1).
Dallas ranks third in rebounds per game (48.2) while Golden State ranks 22nd (43.9).
Dallas ranks 24th in points in the paint per game (44.8) while Golden State ranks 26th (44.2).
Dallas is 12-2 ATS on the road with 10 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Golden State is 7-8 ATS with 10 unders and 5 overs.
Dallas is 5-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Golden State is 4-1.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Mavericks are 20-9 and the Warriors are 9-15.
The Mavericks rank fourth in second chance points per game (14.8) while the Warriors rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers attempted per game (40.8) while Golden State ranks 28th (28.8).
The Warriors rank fifth in steals per game (8.4) while the Mavericks rank 28th (6.4).
The Mavericks average 24.6 assists per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Warriors rank 21st in assists allowed per game (24.8).
Dallas ranks first in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Golden State ranks 20th (5.4).
Golden State is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in its last five games.
Across its past five games, Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
The Warriors have outscored opponents by an average of 4.8 points in their last five games. On the season, Golden State has lost by an average of 7.2 points.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 109.8 points per game (6.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.2 points per game (2.3 below their season average).