Last Updated: 2019-01-18
Back to a small slate as we always have on Friday’s in the middle of the season. The massive Saturday card awaits. Start your preparation for that slate today to get ahead of the game.
A nice 2-1 day on Thursday. Nebraska and Michigan State stayed comfortably under the total in the first half. FIU and Western Kentucky just barely stayed under the first half total for us (the full game stayed under much more easily). I also couldn’t believe Western Kentucky choked away another game in that one. They have found all sorts of ways to lose close ones. IUPUI and Green Bay didn’t go over the total, but the game played to a pace of a whopping 80 possessions, the teams just shot the ball horribly and turned it over a lot. In all, another good day for the picks.
College basketball has been one of my best sports, and I hope to be able to help readers in betting college hoops. I’ll be doing a daily college basketball picks and predictions article for BangTheBook. College basketball is a unique sport with a bunch of teams and opportunities for under the radar betting value.
The articles will contain free picks, but I hope that readers are able to learn a lot about the college basketball betting market through my analysis as well. My goal is to try to help you become better informed so you can improve in placing your own bets on this sport. My hope is that consistent readers of this daily article will feel much better informed about the college hoops market by the end of this season. These picks won’t match my premium picks, but I will be personally betting each of these selections.
We decided to track the results with a running tally throughout the season. For easiest tracking purposes, 1 unit will equal $100 in this article. A 2 unit play would be $200. A 3 unit play would be $300. I do still believe that using a percentage of bankroll is a great way to personally bet on games, and I recommend wagering between 2 and 3 percent on your average plays. Juice will be accounted for in the tracking of the record on plays in the article.
You can follow me on Twitter @kylehunterpicks. Also, follow @bangthebook on Twitter to keep track of what is going on at the site. If you haven’t already, check out the BangTheBook page on YouTube also and subscribe over there for some great betting content.
Ohio at Toledo (Toledo -8.5, 144.5)
We’ve got a Friday night MAC contest as Toledo hosts Ohio in a game that will be televised on CBS Sports Network. Neither team has started MAC play the way they wanted to, so both should be plenty motivated to try to pick up a win here. Ohio has started 1-3 in the MAC.
The Bobcats won on the road at Ball State 70-52, which is a very impressive win. Unfortunately for them, they have been blown out by Kent State and Bowling Green. They also lost in overtime to Northern Illinois.
Toledo started 0-2 in MAC play with blowout losses to Ball State and then Buffalo. The Rockets have bounced back with a road win at Miami (Ohio) and a home win over Western Michigan.
Ohio’s big problem is they are extremely inefficient on offense. The Bobcats rank 314th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Ohio is turning the ball over on 22.1% of their offensive possessions. In conference play, Ohio is averaging only 0.91 points per possession. They are shooting a miserable 51.5% from the free throw line in conference action.
Ohio has decided to slow down the pace drastically in conference play. The Bobcats are using 19.0 seconds of the shot clock on average. Last year, Ohio used only 16.6 seconds of the shot clock on average.
Despite their problems on offense, this is an Ohio team that plays very solid defense. Ohio ranks 47th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are top 20 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Three of Ohio’s four MAC contests have finished regulation with 122 points or less.
Toledo is certainly the higher scoring team of the two in this contest. The Rockets aren’t nearly as efficient as they were a year ago, and they are better on defense this year. Toledo averaged 1.139 points per possession last year. They are averaging 1.092 points per possession this year. The Rockets allowed 1.086 points per possession last year and ranked 247th in defensive efficiency last year. They are allowing only 0.99 points per possession this year, which ranks them 87th in the nation in defensive efficiency.
Toledo ranks 145th in the country in tempo according to Ken Pom. The Rockets have played very quick in their conference games, but their extremely fast-paced loss to Buffalo is skewing the stats a bit here. Ohio won’t play anything like Buffalo.
The market has driven this price up to a point where I have to side with the under. Ohio’s defense remains strong, and Toledo is much better defensively this season.
Pick: Ohio/Toledo under 144.5 (2 units)
Saturday Sneak Peek-
A quick look at two games I’ll have my eye on when lines come out for Saturday:
BYU at San Francisco- BYU was beaten San Francisco in 10 straight meetings, but I think San Francisco is the better team this year. BYU did win on the road at Pepperdine last night. San Francisco escaped in what was a very tough spot against Pacific. Let’s see how much the Dons are favored by here.
College of Charleston at Hofstra- These two were the favorites entering the season in the CAA. Charleston was considered the top dog by most, but they are only 3-3 in the league thus far. Hofstra is a perfect 6-0, and they are riding a 13 game winning streak.
NCAA BB Daily Free Pick Record Season to Date- 24 Wins 11 Losses 1 Tie (+$2,110)
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