Last Updated: 2019-03-24
Let’s just call it like it is, there hasn’t been nearly as much excitement in the first three days of March Madness as we have come to expect. There have been a few good games, but overall the tournament has lacked close finishes and signature moments. It is possible that these moments will come more in the later rounds since there aren’t many “lower quality teams” left in the field.
A 1-1 split on Saturday. Baylor/Gonzaga under was a difficult loss. They had just 62 points at halftime, but they put up 92 points in the second half. There was a parade to the free throw line in the second half in that one. The Auburn/Kansas over did cash in easily as Auburn did whatever they wanted offensively in that matchup.
I don’t find the NCAA Tournament to be a good time to unload on big plays very often. Let’s be honest, these lines are sharper than regular season lines. The number of tickets sportsbooks are going to write on these games far exceeds what they write on even big regular season contests. Keep that in mind as you place your wagers during the NCAA Tournament.
I will continue to write this daily college hoops article through the postseason. There will be free picks inside, but I really hope that readers are able to learn a lot about the college basketball betting market through my analysis as well. My goal is to try to help you become better informed so you can improve in placing your own bets on this sport. I hope consistent readers of this daily article will feel much better informed about the college hoops market by the end of this season. These picks won’t match my premium picks, but I will be personally betting all of these selections.
We are keeping a running tally throughout the season of the selection results. For easiest tracking purposes, 1 unit will equal $100 in this article. A 2 unit play would be $200. A 3 unit play would be $300. I will be making plays from 0.5 units all the way up to 3 units. I added in half units for more flexibility. Juice will be accounted for in the tracking of the record.
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NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Numbers to Know
–Favorites are 117-103-4 ATS since 2005 in the Round of 32. They are only 1-7 ATS in the last eight Round of 32 contests though.
-Favorites with 66% or lower percentage of the tickets on them are an impressive 101-68-4 ATS (59.8% ATS) since 2005. At 57% of the bets or less, the record goes to 67-39-2 ATS (63.2% ATS).
-The over is 115-105-4 (52.3%) since 2005.
Rotation #863/864- UCF vs. Duke (Duke -13, 143.5)
This is a fascinating matchup. While UCF is clearly not even close to as good as Duke, the Knights are a fairly tough matchup since they have so much height and shot blocking ability on the inside. Zion Williamson vs. Tacko Fall will be a lot of fun to watch.
Duke has been a great under team when they are favored by 10 points or more. Coach K’s teams have consistently left off the gas when leading by double digits. When Duke is favored by 10 points or more and is playing on a neutral floor with a total of 143.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 19-4-1 in their last 24 contests. This game fits the system. Taking unders in the NCAA Tournament with a high total and a big spread has been a very profitable angle in general.
UCF has to know they can’t run with Duke here. The Knights will try to grind this tempo down and get back on defense. UCF’s transition defense has been excellent all season long. Look for the Knights to do a good job packing things in and forcing Duke to put up more long range jumpers than normal. Duke is a great team, but they are only shooting 30.5% (333rd in the country) from 3 point range.
Duke ranks 9th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. UCF ranks 11th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense.
The system here on the under is a strong one, and I’ll back it in this spot.
Pick: UCF/Duke under 143.5 (-105) (2 Units) *2.1 Units to Win 2 Units*
Rotation #897/898- Xavier at Texas (Texas -6, 139.5)
Remember, the NCAA Tournament isn’t the only game in town. This is an NIT game between Xavier and Texas. While the Longhorns are a talented team, I’m not interested in laying points at home with this Texas team that is struggling with chemistry issues. There have been some questions as well as to whether this team is actually highly motivated to keep going with this season now.
Jaxson Hayes is one of their best players, and he is out for this game. That puts more pressure on the rest of their frontcourt, and it hurts their defense in the interior severely.
Xavier has been playing some really good basketball at the end of the season. The Muskeeters seem to be peaking at the right time, and I see them having a very real chance of winning outright in a game like this one.
Look for a close contest here.
Pick: Xavier +6 (1.5 Units)
NCAA BB Daily Free Pick Record Season to Date- 83 Wins 61 Losses 2 Ties (+$3,730)
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