Last Updated: 2019-04-08
Here we are at the final game of the season in college basketball. I hope readers have been able to do a couple things from this daily college basketball free pick article. First of all, I hope you were able to gain some insight about how to attack college basketball from a betting standpoint. There is more than one way to win when it comes to sports betting, and knowledge is definitely power. Keep in mind though, that the vast majority of bettors lose and edges are small. There are edges, but getting too confident won’t get you anywhere in sports betting.
Secondly, I hope everyone was able to build up the bankroll some from these plays this year. The final tally for the article is 90 wins 67 losses and 2 ties. That is 57.32% on the season. We finished with a $3,725 gain.
We kept a running tally of the selection results in this article through the season. For easiest tracking purposes, 1 unit was equal to $100 in this article. A 2 unit play was $200. A 3 unit play was $300. Plays were made from 0.5 units all the way up to 3 units.
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Texas Tech vs. Virginia Breakdown
Current Line- Virginia -1.5, 118
First of all, you have to be extremely impressed by how Texas Tech has gotten to this point. The Red Raiders just beat Michigan, Gonzaga, and Michigan State. That’s far from an easy path to the title. Chris Beard’s team is playing so well defensively. How good are they defensively? They are the single best defense in the 18 years KenPom has been tracking teams. They can lock you up.
Virginia has been fortunate to reach this point, but the Cavaliers were the better team throughout the course of the regular season. Can Virginia elevate their level of play in the final? Virginia has the more highly recruited players, and we know they are capable of playing at an extremely high level.
Texas Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Texas Tech ranks 28th in the nation in offensive efficiency on the year. The Red Raiders do rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency in the past month of the season. Texas Tech has gotten much better on offense since Davide Moretti and Matt Mooney have become scoring threats on the outside. Jarrett Culver is still the guy that makes this offense go, but him having some help makes a big difference.
Texas Tech runs a lot of pick and roll offense. The Red Raiders could find it a hard time to have much success with that offense today. According to Synergy Sports, Virginia ranks in the 99th percentile in the country when it comes to defending the ball handler in the pick and roll. They also rank 89th percentile at defending the roll man in the pick and roll play. Texas Tech runs a cutting offense a lot more than most teams, and they are solid in these sets. Virginia ranks in the 76th percentile in defending cuts. Texas Tech will try to get some free points with the back cuts here.
What’s the weakness of the Virginia defense? Virginia’s transition defense is their weakness. Opponents are averaging a whopping 1.087 points per possession in transition offense against Virginia. How do they do in the halfcourt sets? Opponents average 0.768 points per possession in halfcourt sets against the Cavs. You need to try get them early in the shot clock.
Davide Moretti and Matt Mooney are going to be needed in this one. Virginia isn’t going to let Texas Tech get into the paint often here. The pack line defense is designed to make it hard to score in the paint. The Cavs are good at defending the 3 point line, but that is what opponents have to take quite a bit against them. Texas Tech needs to be able to knock down long jumpers tonight.
Virginia Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Virginia’s offense has been extremely pick and roll heavy in recent seasons, but they are doing less of that this year. They are setting a lot of screens and running a lot of curls this year. I suspect that is because Virginia has so many more scorers and good long range shooters than they have had in recent seasons. The Cavs do run a lot of back cuts, and that is the single biggest weakness of the Texas Tech defense. Texas Tech ranks in the 21st percentile in defending cuts, but they are far above average against every other play type. Look for Virginia to use this offense more than normal.
De’Andre Hunter is probably the highest upside player that Virginia has on this year’s team. Hunter hasn’t been nearly as good as he can be so far in the NCAA Tournament. We’ve seen Hunter take over games in the past. He’s clearly capable of doing it again. If Hunter does that here, Texas Tech will have a hard time winning. Hunter ranks as the most efficient offensive player on Virginia’s team for the season as a whole, but in the tournament he has gone quiet for long stretches.
Ty Jerome doesn’t get enough credit for what he does facilitating this offense. Jerome can do a little bit of everything. I think the Cavs are better than Jerome is being aggressive and looking for his shot as well. Kyle Guy is a great knockdown shooter who is better off the bounce than most realize. He has been subpar in most of this tournament as well, but he has shown what he is capable of, and I was thoroughly impressed that he knocked down all 3 free throws in the clutch last game.
Virginia hasn’t faced a defense this aggressive all year. Texas Tech is going to bump them around. How the referees call this game is very important. The Red Raiders are going to contest everything. Can Virginia be efficient enough on offense?
Chris Beard is a magician. I can’t believe how well he has coached this team. A few years ago, I remember talking about how much I love Beard as a coach. Even with that being the case, I had underrated him. The fact that he gets guys to buy in on the defensive end so much goes against most of what we see in today’s college basketball on the whole. Players usually want all the glory and to put up a big stat line. Texas Tech has these guys wanting to win and work as a team.
Tony Bennett has gotten a lot of heat based on his struggles in the NCAA Tournament, but he is clearly a very good coach. You don’t win at the level he has without being excellent at your job. Bennett is also one of the classiest and nicest guys in college basketball.
I give the edge to Beard and Texas Tech here, and that isn’t a knock on Bennett. I don’t think there’s a coach I’d pick above Beard if I had to win one game.
Pick (Look for a Live Bet Chance on the Under)
I can’t take under 118 or 117.5 pregame, but I do expect a low scoring game. If one team gets down early, I’d back them in live betting, because I see this being a very tight game. Similarly, if the teams knock down some jumpers early, I wouldn’t hesitate to bet the under at a higher number.
It has been a pretty firm rule of mine to not bet unders below 120. The few times I’ve done it the results haven’t been very good. It’s just so hard to win an under 118. A final score of 60-59 is a loss in that scenario.
This game is being played at a football stadium and the shooting backdrops are difficult. Let’s see if we can find a spot to live bet the under here at a higher number.
Thank you for reading this article on a daily basis throughout the season. There are a lot of loyal readers/listeners at BangTheBook. While there are always a few who somehow find a way to complain, the vast majority of feedback was positive and it was much appreciated. I appreciate everyone who has followed along and I genuinely hope the article was helpful.
NCAA BB Daily Free Pick Record Season Results- 90 Wins 67 Losses 2 Ties (+$3,725)
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