College Football Week 7 System Picks
- Updated: October 12, 2013
When it comes to sports handicapping, sometimes simpler is better. Football bettors can analyze yards per pass attempt, yards per point and countless other statistics, but one of the most successful college football systems over the years has been one of the most basic.
Simply bet the home team when the over/under is at least 70. That’s all there is to it. Betting on the home team in these games would have yielded a 106-83-3 (56.1%) record over time, but you can boost your winning percentage significantly by playing only those games where the total is at least 73. These games have seen the home team go 61-35-1, which is a solid 63.5 winning percentage.
The system hasn’t slowed down any this year, as home teams are 11-8 ATS (57.9%) in games where the total was at least 70 and 5-3 (62.5%) in those games where the total was at least 73.
Home underdogs have actually fared better in both instances. Using the benchmark of a total at least 70, home favorites are just 66-57-2, which is still a money-making 53.7%, but home underdogs are an impressive 40-26-1, which is 60.6%.
Using a minimum total of 73 sees home favorites going 38-23-1, which is 62.3%, while home underdogs are a nice 23-12 (65.7%).
There are four teams that qualify this week and three of them find themselves as home underdogs, beginning with Kansas State+17.5 against Baylor. The total is 74, so the Wildcats qualify in the over 73 category and find themselves in a good spot against a Baylor team that will be playing its first road game of the season.
The Washington Huskies+13.5 are the next team, as they are home against Oregon. The total on the game is 76, and the final home underdog is Mississippi+6 against Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies and the total is currently 75.
The lone favorite is UCLA-25 over California and the total in that game is 73.5.