Last Updated: 2017-11-09
Well we had a couple of tough breaks last week and went 1-2 but there’s no time to complain or contemplate what could have been. It’s a terrific slate of games for week 11 with more than a few totals plays that are already in pocket for the weekend, featuring a two unit banger and YES an UNDER is on deck for the first time in weeks!
TRANSPARENCY REPORT CARD: 16-17 [ -3.8 Units ]
(All of these totals were taken from 5Dimes.eu on the evening of 11/09/17 )
GEORGIA @ AUBURN (47): These are two of the best teams in the SEC as well as the nation but the reason for that is two excellent defenses that both rank in the Top-25 in rushing defense, which steps right in front of the strengths of these two offenses. The Bulldogs do have a tremendous senior duo at runningback with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, both draftable NFL prospects. Georgia’s quarterback situation might be better off with Jake Fromm but against an Auburn pass defense that ranks in the Top-20 in yardage and ninth in points against, the Bulldogs might be stuck in neutral here. With future NFL studs like junior linebacker Jeff Holland (7.5 sacks) and gigantic sophomore Derrick Brown (6’5”,3126 lbs) who has 7.5 TFLs, this Tiger defense has some real teeth in the pass rush.
Auburn will be without stud runningback Kamryn Pettway (shoulder) who is their pounder and pile mover but they have their most explosive runner going in junior Kerryon Johnson who has 15 rushing touchdowns and is also a threat as a receiver with another score through the air. Yet another problem with the matchup is the strength of this Georgia team; a defense that returned 10 starters and currently ranks 7th in passing defense, 5th in rushing defense and 3rd in scoring defense at 11.7 points per game. Gus Malzahn’s read option scheme needs a running game to have success and put his quarterback ahead of the chains but against this pass rush and front seven, it will be tough sledding for Jared Stidham here against a senior laden defense with guys like Lo Carter, Aaron Davis and Davin Bellamy setting the tone.
The line has dropped a point from 48 to 47 here, so we’ve lost a point on this total but with a true rock meeting the hard place type of game on our hands, the movement makes sense. The forecast reads pretty solid in the 50’s, mostly sunny with 5-9 mph winds in Auburn for game time but the history of this matchup is definitely in our favor here, as the last six games in this series have gone 5-1 to the UNDER with five Bulldog wins from 2011-2016. This game should be a real slugfest featuring two heavy weights that specialize in defensive football and strong ground games, which makes the UNDER a good look. Georgia takes this SEC street fight in a tight 17-13 road win here.
THE PLAY: (UNDER 47) UGA @ AU *1 UNIT*
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA @ COLORADO (64½): This is a high number but these two offenses have been firing off with the Trojans piling up 97 in their last two games, while the Buffs have scored 74 in their last two contests. Sam Darnold is stuck in the read option and even though his stats are terrible this season, he’s still a rare prospect and player. Despite all the mistakes and interceptions, this kid is going to move the ball up and down the field in every game he plays because he’s talented and the offensive line around him is getting healthier. The bottom line for the Trojan offense is that the three key players; quarterback Darnold, junior runningback Ronald Jones and junior receiver Deontay Burnett are all healthy and all playing well. Jones has 13 rushing scores, while Burnett has racked up 8 touchdowns through the air despite Sam Darnold apparently “struggling” [insert sarcasm here]. The Buffs lost former defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt (Oregon) and that’s why they’ve dropped to 69th in scoring defense at 26.6 points per game. The main problem for Colorado is a rushing defense that ranks 117th against a future NFL back in Ronald Jones.
On the other side of the ball the Buffs have a real difference maker at runningback themselves in Phillip Lindsay, who is fourth in the nation with 1,334 rushing yards. Up against a Trojan rushing defense that ranks 93rd with 1,717 yards given up on the year, Colorado should have a lot of success sustaining drives with their pace at 78.6 plays per game which ranks 18th in the nation. They have a dual threat quarterback in sophomore Steven Montez, they have a trio of senior receivers in Mike Bobo, Devin Ross and Shay Fields to go along with a super sized offensive line. Mike Macintyre’s team are always very well coached and there’s no doubt the Buffaloes offense will be ready in their last home game of the year.
These two teams actually have a small sample size of low scoring with the last two matchups finishing much lower than the total at 2-0 to the UNDER but that was certainly a different Colorado defense the last two seasons. USC also has two key defenders on the injury report in junior cornerback Iman Marshall (a highly regarded NFL prospect) and senior pass rusher Uchenna Nwosu who has five sacks on the year, as both are listed as questionable for this game. The forecast in Boulder is sunny and 50’s, which is ideal fat guy weather (speaking from experience), so you can expect these offensive linemen to be at their best. Unfortunately, we’re tardy to the party in regards to the line movement with the opener as low as 60½ and it’s now up to 64½ as of this writing but there’s still value with an expected final in the range of a 41-38 or 38-34 USC win in a classic Pac-12 showdown here.
THE PLAY: (OVER 64½) USC @ COL **2 UNITS**
WASHINGTON STATE @ UTAH (52): Mike Leach is a living legend in press conferences and his teams are consistent if anything, especially on offense where Leach has rewritten the book on how to coach quarterbacks and receivers. Former walkon senior quarterback Luke Falk ranks 1st in completions at 280, he is 7th in yardage at 2,913 and 7th in passing touchdown at 26 despite being benched for periods in two games this season. As a team the Cougars have more passing yards than any team and they average 85.1 plays per game on offense which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Utes are defensive specialists however and they excel in pass coverage, ranking 30th in yardage through the air but against the spread attack of the Cougars, their thin secondary may have met their match. Utah will need senior end Kylie Fitts (3 sacks) and senior linebacker Sunia Tauteoli (10 TFLs) to have big games rushing the passer if they want to stay in this game because Washington State will score points.
Utah finally has a legit mobile quarterback that poses a real threat through the air in Tyler Huntley, who has three rushing scores to go along with his 12 passing touchdowns in just six and half games. The sophomore is coming of a four passing touchdown game against UCLA and poses a problem against a Washington State defense that had issues against mobile quarterbacks in games against Arizona and California. The Cougars have a much improved defensive unit this year with some unique players like junior lineman Hercules Mata’afa, who is a force of nature type with outstanding strength and a real shot to play at the next level but Washington State has given up a combined 105 points in their last three road games and they’re coming off a big win over rival Stanford. The Utes also have a special player in senior receiver Darren Carrington who leads the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns through the air. The graduate transfer from Oregon has shown chemistry with both Utah quarterbacks and regardless of changing teams and offenses, Carrington has excelled as a leader for this offense and has put himself firmly on the NFL Draft map in his final season of eligibility.
This line hasn’t budged, resting at the 52 it opened which shows respect for the number but it looks low in a divisional series that has seen three of the last four meetings go up and OVER the total. With conditions looking extremely favorable in Salt Lake, there shouldn’t be any issues spinning the ball and timing up routes. Both teams have relatively short injury reports for this game and both have spread offenses with difference makers at quarterback. These teams are both coming off conference wins and both teams want this game for bowl contention, so expect both offenses to pull out all the stops in a 38-27 Utah win at home here.
THE PLAY: (OVER 52) WSU @ UTAH *1 UNIT*
Thanks so much for reading! Please feel free to hit me up with any questions, comments or feedback that you might have on twitter (@JoeWEverett).
-END OF 2017 WEEK 11 UPDATE-
Totals are often times the safest way to make a play and getting in on the right side of a number is always best when you’re trying to invest. In this college football extra points series, we’ll try to nail down the games that will have a number and a key matchup that will help you cash it up on Saturdays. (All of these totals were taken from 5Dimes.eu on the evening of 11/11/16)
WEST VIRGINIA @ TEXAS (64): The Mounts are rolling at 7-1 with great defense, physical running and a classic Dana Holgorsen passing scheme that is average 79 plays run on offense per game. West Virginia is scoring 33.2 points per game with a very experienced passer in senior Skyler Howard who has 11 total touchdowns (three rushing) to just two interceptions in his last three games. Their rushing attack might hampered with runningback Rushel Shell (ankle) questionable for this game but junior back Justin Crawford should be able to answer the bell against a bad defense, as the Longhorns are giving up 194 rushing yards a game and Texas is the 106th ranked scoring defense at 33.2 points allowed per clip. The Longhorns can put points up and they’re a developing rushing offense with junior D’Onta Foreman running extremely well. He possesses great size and excellent vision but Texas can get it done through the air as well with true freshman Shane Buechele throwing eight touchdowns to two interceptions in his last four games. The Longhorns have a wild card in dual threat quarterback Tyrone Swoopes and his “18-wheeler” package but regardless who Sterlin Gilbert dials up, Texas has options and will find a way to score at home in a game they’ve had circled on their calendar for a few weeks now. Last year’s game went OVER the number in a 38-20 WVU home win and the last four games of this series have gone 3-1 to the OVER, which makes the 64 here look awful low.
THE PLAY: (OVER 64) WVU @ TEX *1 UNIT*
NORTH TEXAS @ WESTERN KENTUCKY (64½): Western Kentucky is piling up points every single week with redshirt junior Mike White flat out dropping dimes, as the South Florida transfer is completing 68.8% of his passes and has a 24-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Hilltoppers are also getting it done on the ground with 14 rushing touchdowns in their last four games and Western is coming off of a four rushing touchdown performance by senior runningback Anthony Wales last week against FIU. On the other side of the ball North Texas is led by junior runner Jeff Wilson and they have been competitive with a 28.5 point per game average in their last four contests. The Mean Green are a very surprising 4-5 on the season with a 2-3 conference record, so they will enter this rivalry with solid game plan and big plans for an upset. The Hilltoppers are averaging 51 points per game in this last six outings so they are likely going to score in the 50s here at home and they are certain to own this game from start to finish, considering Western Kentucky smoked the Mean Green 55-28 in last year’s game. Not that anybody would blindly bet WKU OVERs but they are 5-2 to the OVER in their last seven contests and a team total for the Hilltoppers is also a very solid investment if it is anything in the high forties.
THE PLAY: (OVER 64½) UNT @ WKU *1 UNIT*
TULANE @ HOUSTON (51): The Tulane Angry Wave defense is one of the most underrated squads out there with bona fide NFL studs on their roster in all conference senior defensive tackle Tanzel Smart and junior Ade Aruna at defensive end. They have a tough rushing defense with hybrid linebacker/safety Nico Marley roaming the field and they have a shutdown cornerback in redshirt junior Parry Nickerson. This is Houston’s homecoming game and they are clearly the better team but the Cougars have had difficulty with teams that can shut down their read option attack and force Greg Ward Jr to the air, which is a very risky proposition against most defenses because as good as an athlete that Ward is, he is not an NFL passer and he has only zip code accuracy which will be a major issue against the Green Wave. On offense, Tulane runs a triple option attack and new coach Willie Fritz will attempt to shorten this game, they will kill the clock and rely on the defense to keep things close in this conference clash. The other aspect of this matchup to consider is what Houston has left to play for and the uncertainty of Tom Herman’s future, particularly where he’ll be coaching in 2017 which has really let a lot of air out of the balloon for once highly ranked Cougars team.
THE PLAY: (UNDER 51) TUL @ HOU *1 UNIT*
SOUTH FLORIDA @ MEMPHIS (73½): I know, 73½ is an awful high number but it’s up there for a good reason. Both of these offenses are firing on all cylinders with South Florida averaging 43.4 points per game (8th most) and Memphis putting up 38.9 points a game (18th most). The Tigers are coming off scoring 51 points against SMU, Riley Ferguson had one of his best games of the year with four passing touchdowns and Memphis’ new coach Mike Norvell is running a tight ship on offense with a very effective up tempo spread attack. South Florida’s “Gulf Coast Offense” gets a lot of love here at bangthebook.com and that’s because they have a unique collection of athletes on offense which is resulting in great results against the number, as the Bulls’ nine games have gone 7-2 to the OVER this season and they are also a very respectable 6-3 ATS on the year. USF has playmakers for days with dual threat passer Quinton Flowers, the dynamic all conference runningback Marlon Mack and speed merchant Rodney Adams at wide receiver but their most dangerous player might be D’Ernest Johnson. The coaches call him the best football player on the team regardless of position and he has 10 total touchdowns (6 rushing/4 receiving) on the year because he’s so versatile and extremely difficult to bring to the ground. Memphis has the homefield advantage, they have an upset on their mind and that should force the Bulls to keep the pedal to the medal in what should be an AAC barn burner here.
THE PLAY: (OVER 73½) USF @ MEM *1 UNIT*
TRANSPARENCY REPORT CARD: 17-19 [ -3.2 Units ]
Thanks so much for reading! Please feel free to hit me up with any questions, comments or feedback that you might have on twitter (@JoeWEverett).
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