Last Updated: 2017-11-30
We’re 9-5 with our College Totals Plays of the Week and this week, we’ll look at the game between Louisiana-Lafayette and Appalachian State. Appalachian State is favored by 15 and the total is 58.
It came down down to this game or the under in the Idaho game and was a little worried about the Vandals due to their third-string quarterback playing and if he was going to be so bad it would lead to some easy points for Georgia Southern. Still, pickings are a bit more difficult this week with the small schedule.
Both teams average close to 30 points per game and can run and throw, having a fairly good balance. Lafayette runs the ball 38 times per game and throws 32 times, while Appalachian State runs 39 times and attempts 29 passes.
Lafayette averages 4.9 yards per carry against teams that allow 4.8, so they’re just slightly better than average, while Appalachian averages 5.2 yards against teams who allow 4.6 yards per carry on average. Defensively, Lafayette allows 5.1 yards per carry and Appalachian allows 4.0, so have to figure the home team is going to have some success on the ground.
This is a must-win game for Lafayette as far as a bowl game goes, as they bring a 5-6 record into the game. Appalachian State is 7-4 and already has enough victories to be bowl eligible, although a win will give them a share of the Sun Belt Conference title.
The last two times these teams have met, the Mountaineers have won comfortably, winning 24-0 after a scoreless second half last season and winning 28-7 the previous year. In both games, Appalachian was able to use its ground game effectively and stop Lafayette from getting things going offensively.
Have a feeling this game is also going to land under the total, with lots of rushing from both teams. If the Cajuns can have a little success that will help its defense out greatly and shortening the game is Lafayette’s best chance of winning the game.
Appalachian State is going to score some points, as the Cajuns aren’t all that great defensively, but even a couple of long drives that result in field goals will help us in this case.
The betting is pretty evenly split and the total has remained pretty consistent throughout the week. We might be sweating it out towards the end, but believe this one stays under and that’s the way I’ll go for this week’s play.
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