Last Updated: 2018-11-30
We fell to 10-3 with our College Total Play of the Week last week, while splitting our other two games for a lackluster 1-2 week in college football. Still, 24-15 in college football and an ugly 18-17-1 in the NFL, so will try to pick it up here the rest of the way. Fortunately, we tend to do well in the bowl games, so we’ll see what those bring us.
This week, we’ll take a look at the game between Central Florida and Memphis, where the Knights are favored by 3.5 and the total on the game is down to 64.5. The teams played a 31-30 game in Memphis earlier this season and things will take on a different feel this week with the injury to Milton.
Both teams ran run the ball a little bit, but UCF’s ability to pass took a serious hit. Even with a week of practice with the starters, Mack won’t be able to fill Milton’s shoes, although not many players can. It’s hard to replace somebody who has gone 24-0 as a starter.
The Knights are solid on defense, although they do labor against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry against teams who average 4.8 yards on the ground. They’re a little better against the pass, holding teams to .8 fewer yards per pass attempt than they average and Memphis can run or throw. The Knights have been particularly good at preventing scores even though they give up yardage. Their yards per point number of 21 is one of the best in the county and they allow just 5.2 yards per play.
Memphis is pretty good at stopping the run, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, but the Knights are going to try and get the ground game going. Mack will throw some passes, but don’t see UCF trying to push the pace as much and will try to be a bit more deliberate on offense.
But even with Milton, the UCF offense isn’t quite what it was a year ago. The Knights have scored 38 or fewer points in five of their last six games and just one of their last six games has seen 65 or more combined points.
Memphis was a different team on the road this year, scoring 33 points per game compared to 51.6 points at home, with much of those points coming against East Carolina when they put up 59.
It’s not going to be a defensive battle and we’ve lost some of the value from earlier in the week when the number came out at 69.5 but think this one manages to stay under the number.total and will go that way.
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