College Football System Picks Week 8
- Updated: October 16, 2013
One of the keys to profitable sports betting is following the formula of successful stockbrokers of buying low and selling high; meaning that you take teams (buy) when they fall out of the betting public’s favor and you go against teams (sell) that the betting public is going to be enamored with. Most of the time, anyway.
Saturday’s Southeastern Conference match-up between Arkansas and Alabama has two teams coming off contrasting results. Alabama thumped Kentucky 48-7 last week, while Arkansas was getting steamrolled in front of its Homecoming crowd against South Carolina, as the Gamecocks posted a 52-7 victory. Naturally, the betting public is going to look at those results and be inclined to bet on Nick I dontSaban’s crew, which they have, as 80-percent of the wagers are coming in on the Crimson Tide.
But if history repeats itself, this is one of those cases where the public will walk away happy, as Alabama falls into a system that is a strong 95-45-2 (67.9%) over the years and that is to play on any college football team that won its last two games by at least 35 points if they are facing a team that gave up at least 35 points in its previous game. The system is hitting at a slightly lower percentage 16-10-1 (62.5%) since the start of the 2011 season, but there’s nothing wrong with that winning percentage.
The system is 2-1-1 so far this season, with the Oregon Ducks getting the two wins in their back-to-back victories over California and Colorado, while the Florida State Seminoles have the system’s lone loss in their 48-34 victory over Boston College as 23.5-point favorites.
The Crimson Tide is currently favored by 28 at WagerWeb and the line may climb above the four touchdown mark prior to kick-off, but Alabama should be able to cover the lofty number.