Last Updated: 2017-11-30
We moved to 8-6 on our College Football System Plays last week and this week we’ll look at the game between Memphis and Central Florida. Central Florida is favored by 7 (-115) and the total on the game is all the way up to 81. There are some 7.5s on the board.
Both of these teams enjoyed stellar seasons, with Memphis suffering just one loss and the Knights coming into this one still undefeated. Unfortunately for Memphis, that one loss was a 40-13 thumping at the hands of Central Florida in a game the Knights dominated.
Now the Knights are looking to put the finishing touches on a perfect season and advance to one of the bowl games, but the team’s biggest challenge may be keeping head coach Scott Frost, as the former Cornhusker is the target of Nebraska, who finally let Mike Reilly go. Don’t think the team isn’t aware of what’s happening and their coach is the hot commodity in college football.
That said, these two teams are about as equal as you can be offensively, as Memphis averages 47 points and Central Florida scores 48.3, while the Tigers average six more yards per game. The Knights have better numbers on defense, allowing 60 fewer yards per game and 8.3 fewer points, although part of that has to do with the Tigers averaging just 26:09 in time of possession, while UCF hangs on to the ball 28:26 per game, a little over two minutes more.
The Knights are also coming off a big win over their chief rival, South Florida, and have to be feeling a little bit of pressure with its undefeated record, while the Tigers will be going to a decent bowl game regardless of the outcome and don’t have anything other than revenge their gunning for in this one.
The Tigers are in a pretty good situation, as underdogs of seven points or more and just one loss in Week No. 12 or higher have gone 26-18-2 (59.1%) if they are playing with revenge from the last time the teams met. If the underdog lost the last meeting by more at least two touchdowns, they are 15-10-2, which is 60%.
The Tigers had four turnovers in the first meeting between the two teams and if they can clean things up a little bit, have the offensive power to keep this one close. If nothing else, Memphis is a team with decent backdoor potential if they find themselves behind late, as they’re capable of scoring in a hurry, so will take the Tigers in this one.