Last Updated: 2018-11-08
We moved to 6-4 on our College Football System Play of the Week last Saturday and for this week, we’ll take a look at the game between Navy and Central Florida. The Knights are favored by 25 and the total is 6-3.
It’s been a disappointing year for the Midshipmen, who at 2-7, aren’t going anywhere after their final game of the season against Army. The Midshipmen are coming off their worst game of the year, as they fell to Cincinnati 42-0. They trailed 28-0 at half and had less than 175 yards of total offense in the game. It was the sixth straight loss for Navy.
Despite their poor season, the Midshipmen are doing what they do best fairly effectively, rushing the ball for a 4.9 yard average against teams who allow 4.6 yards per carry on the season. Their passing game stinks, but that’s what you expect from the Midshipmen.
The Knights are undefeated on the year and are coming off a 52-40 win over Temple, a game they trailed by 10 points at one point and were leading 42-40 in the fourth quarter before scoring the final 10 points of the game and stopping Temple on downs and grabbing an interception down the stretch.
UCF has a game with Cincinnati next week and the Bearcats are peaking at the right time, so Navy is definitely catching the Knights at a good time.
One thing we’ve seen from college football coaches is a bit of a reluctance to really run up the score when they play the three military teams. Maybe there’s a bit of respect there for the players, but coaches have tried to get a win and move on to the next game.
Since 2000, the three military schools have posted a 35-17-1 ATS record when they are an underdog of 20 points or more. Since 2010, the record is 10-3-1, so it’s not just a long-term trend. Navy is 11-4 since 2000 and 1-1 since 2010, with the win coming this year when they managed to stay under the spread by 1 in a 44-22 loss to Notre Dame.
The Midshipmen will look to slow the game down as much as they can against the Knights, who just average 26:03 time of possession as it is, while Navy is a little over 34 minutes and could very well have the ball close to 40 minutes if they’re able to pick up some first downs and keep the clock running. It’s just a matter of what they do in those other 20 minutes that will be key.
Going to take the Midshipmen to bounce back a little bit last after last week’s clunker and believe they can stay under the number in this one.
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