Last Updated: 2017-11-09
We’re barely treading water with our College Football System Picks, checking in with a 6-5 record, as we head to this week’s game, which is going to be Connecticut at Central Florida. The line has shot up to 40.5 and the total on the game is now 64.
This game has blowout written all over it, as the Huskies can’t stop anybody and are allowing 554 yards per game defensively. So far this season, UConn has allowed 70 points to Memphis, 52 to Missouri and 49 to SMU. Now they’ll face a Central Florida offense that has put up 50 or more points in three of its last five games, including 63 against East Carolina and 51 against a Cincinnati team that at least has a few decent athletes on the defensive side of the ball.
The only times the Knights haven’t put up 50 points is when the opposition has been able to move the ball on the ground. Navy and SMU both ran for more than 200 yards and those two games resulted in Central Florida’s lowest offense outputs of the season. The Huskies don’t run the ball particularly well, gaining just 3.4 yards per carry against teams that allow 4.5 yards per carry.
A lot has been said about Uconn quarterback Bryant Shirreffs missing this game with a concussion, but backup David Pindell was originally the team’s starter entering the season. He didn’t play particularly well in the Huskies’ opening game and was replaced by Shirreffs. He is a junior college transfer, so shouldn’t have the deer-in-the-headlights look, but will have to do a better job of throwing the ball down the field than he did in the opener, which is what led to him being replaced.
Central Florida can pretty much name the score in this one, but don’t see any real reason for Scott Frost to run up the score in this spot. They are coming off a hard-fought win over SMU, so could have a bit of a letdown here, as the Huskies aren’t going to get anybody excited this season.
Large underdogs have been solid bets so far this season, with underdogs of 30 or more points sporting a 49-26-3 (65.3%) record so far this year and underdogs of 35 or more points going 30-16. There haven’t been a whole lot of games to see the line exceed 40 points, but these teams have gone 17-5-1, which is better than 75%, so will grab the Huskies plus all the points in this one and hope Uconn shows up to play.