“The full regular season must be played.” We have no idea whether or not that will happen, but for those that are knee deep in preparations for the 2020 college football season, BetOnline Sportsbook has released season win totals. Even if you are not ready to fire on them, you should have a really good frame of reference now for putting together your power ratings and your thoughts on the teams for the upcoming season.
By no means are these risk-free, given that there is always risk in gambling, but refunds will be given if the full schedule of the regular season is not played, so you don’t have to worry about getting boned on an over bet if the season starts late or doesn’t start at all.
Another good thing about the season win total odds at BetOnline is that all of them are half numbers, which means that you won’t have any pushes. Of course, some of the vig can be a little bit cost-prohibitive, as roughly 30 or 35 cents equals a half-win, so some of them may look more like 10 or 9 or some other flat number. Nevertheless, for those desperate for something to study in the time of coronavirus, you most certainly have it.
Alright, strap in, friends. Here are the season win total lines for all 130 teams in alphabetical order from BetOnline Sportsbook (over juice/under juice):
Air Force 8.5 (140/-160)
Akron 2.5 (180/-220)
Alabama 10.5 (-160/140)
App State 9.5 (-120/100)
Arizona 4.5 (-200/170)
Arizona State 7.5 (-110/-110)
Arkansas 3.5 (-110/-110)
Arkansas State 6.5 (110/-130)
Army 6.5 (-110/-110)
Auburn 8.5 (-210/175)
Ball State 5.5 (-160/140)
Baylor 7.5 (-110/-110)
Boise State 9.5 (-145/125)
Boston College 4.5 (-145/125)
Bowling Green 2.5 (-110/-110)
Buffalo 7.5 (110/-130)
BYU 6.5 (-125/105)
Cal 6.5 (-145/125)
Central Michigan 6.5 (-110/-110)
Charlotte 4.5 (-170/150)
Cincinnati 8.5 (-145/125)
Clemson 11.5 (-110/-110)
Coastal Carolina 4.5 (-125/105)
Colorado 3.5 (150/-170)
Colorado State 5.5 (110/-130)
Connecticut 2.5 (-110/-110)
Duke 5.5 (-110/-110)
East Carolina 3.5 (110/-130)
Eastern Michigan 3.5 (-200/170)
Florida 9.5 (-220/180)
Florida Atlantic 7.5 (-145/125)
Florida International 5.5 (-160/140)
Florida State 7.5 (-110/-110)
Fresno State 5.5 (-160/140)
Georgia 10.5 (175/-210)
Georgia Southern 6.5 (125/-145)
Georgia State 5.5 (140/-160)
Georgia Tech 2.5 (-155/135)
Hawaii 6.5 (125/-145)
Houston 5.5 (125/-145)
Illinois 4.5 (-160/140)
Indiana 7.5 (-110/-110)
Iowa 7.5 (110/-130)
Iowa State 7.5 (-170/150)
Kansas 3.5 (110/-130)
Kansas State 6.5 (150/-170)
Kent State 5.5 (140/-160)
Kentucky 6.5 (-200/170)
Liberty 5.5 (-145/125)
Louisiana Tech 7.5 (110/-130)
Louisville 7.5 (-110/-110)
Louisiana 9.5 (-120/100)
LSU 9.5 (155/-175)
Marshall 6.5 (-110/-110)
Maryland 3.5 (-160/140)
Memphis 9.5 (125/-145)
Miami (OH) 6.5 (110/-130)
Miami (FL) 8.5 (-145/125)
Michigan 9.5 (175/-210)
Michigan State 5.5 (110/-130)
Middle Tennessee 5.5 (-110/-110)
Minnesota 8.5 (-110/-110)
Mississippi State 6.5 (150/-170)
Missouri 5.5 (-110/-110)
Navy 7.5 (175/-210)
Nebraska 7.5 (150/-170)
Nevada 6.5 (-110/-110)
New Mexico 3.5 (-110/-110)
New Mexico State 3.5 (-110/-110)
North Carolina 8.5 (-120/100)
North Carolina State 4.5 (-170/150)
North Texas 5.5 (-110/-110)
Northern Illinois 5.5 (150/-170)
Northwestern 5.5 (-110/-110)
Notre Dame 9.5 (140/-160)
Ohio 5.5 (-120/100)
Ohio State 10.5 (-210/175)
Oklahoma 9.5 (-200/170)
Oklahoma State 8.5 (110/-130)
Old Dominion 2.5 (-210/175)
Ole Miss 5.5 (-145/125)
Oregon 9.5 (-110/-110)
Oregon State 5.5 (140/-160)
Penn State 9.5 (-160/140)
Pitt 6.5 (115/-135)
Purdue 5.5 (125/-145)
Rice 5.5 (110/-130)
Rutgers 2.5 (140/-160)
San Diego State 7.5 (-110/-110)
San Jose State 5.5 (125/-145)
SMU 7.5 (-110/-110)
South Alabama 3.5 (-110/-110)
South Carolina 5.5 (-145/125)
South Florida 4.5 (-145/125)
Southern Miss 7.5 (140/-160)
Stanford 5.5 (-125/105)
Syracuse 5.5 (-120/100)
TCU 6.5 (-110/-110)
Temple 5.5 (-110/-110)
Tennessee 7.5 (-110/-110)
Texas 8.5 (-200/170)
Texas A&M 9.5 (140/-160)
Texas State 3.5 (125/-145)
Texas Tech 5.5 (-170/150)
Toledo 6.5 (-110/-110)
Troy 7.5 (140/-160)
Tulane 5.5 (-110/-110)
Tulsa
UAB 8.5 (125/-145)
UCF 10.5 (110/-130)
UCLA 5.5 (-110/-110)
UL Monroe 3.5 (-200/170)
UMass 1.5 (-160/140)
UNLV 3.5 (170/-200)
USC 8.5 (110/-130)
Utah 8.5 (-110/-110)
Utah State 5.5 (125/-145)
UTEP 1.5 (-160/140)
UTSA 3.5 (125/-145)
Vanderbilt 3.5 (140/-160)
Virginia 6.5 (-125/105)
Virginia Tech 8.5 (105/-125)
Wake Forest 6.5 (-110/-110)
Washington 8.5 (-110/-110)
Washington State 6.5 (160/-180)
West Virginia 5.5 (105/-125)
Western Kentucky 7.5 (110/-130)
Western Michigan 6.5 (-120/100)
Wisconsin 9.5 (150/-170)
Wyoming 6.5 (-110/-110)
In all honesty, it would be a disservice to suggest any picks because I haven’t done enough college football research and haven’t put together my power ratings as of yet.
For those that have put together power ratings, come up with your projected spreads on each game and then turn the spread into an expected win probability.
That looks something like this:
| Spread | Expected Wins |
| 0.5 | .50 |
| 1 | .51 |
| 1.5 | .52 |
| 2 | .53 |
| 2.5 | .54 |
| 3 | .57 |
| 3.5 | .61 |
| 4 | .62 |
| 4.5 | .63 |
| 5 | .64 |
| 5.5 | .65 |
| 6 | .66 |
| 6.5 | .68 |
| 7 | .70 |
| 7.5 | .73 |
| 8 | .74 |
| 8.5 | .75 |
| 9 | .75 |
| 9.5 | .75 |
| 10 | .77 |
| 10.5 | .79 |
| 11 | .80 |
| 11.5 | .81 |
| 12 | .82 |
| 12.5 | .83 |
| 13 | .83 |
| 13.5 | .84 |
| 14 | .85 |
| 14.5 | .87 |
| 15 | .87 |
| 15.5 | .88 |
| 16 | .89 |
| 16.5 | .89 |
| 17 | .91 |
| 17.5 | .94 |
| 18 | .95 |
| 18.5 | .96 |
| 19 | .97 |
| 19.5 | .98 |
| 20 | 1.00 |
So you would look at the schedule, come up with your spreads, convert to expected wins, add them all up, and that would be your baseline win total.
For example, if Team A plays 12 games and has these spreads:
-7 (.7 expected wins)
3 (.43)
-1.5 (.52)
4 (.38)
8.5 (.25)
10 (.23)
-5.5 (.65)
6 (.34)
-1 (.51)
-14 (.85)
-7 (.7)
5 (.36)
Then the projected win total is 5.92 wins. If the win total is far enough from your number and the vig seems manageable, then you can fire on that bet on whichever side makes sense.
For a better example, for whatever reason, BetOnline has odds up on all of Syracuse’s games except for the FCS matchup against Colgate. Here are those games:
@ Boston College (+1) = .49
@ Rutgers (+5) = .36
Colgate N/A
@ Western Michigan (+2.5) = .46
Louisville (+6) = .34
Liberty (-9) = .75
@ Clemson (+38.5) = 0
Georgia Tech (-3) = .57
@ Wake Forest (+9) = .25
NC State (-3.5) = .61
Florida State (+6) = .34
@ Pitt (+6) = .34
That would give Syracuse, based on those odds, an expected win total of 4.51 with the game against Colgate unlined. The Syracuse win total is at 5.5 with the over at -120. Based on these projected spreads, which could obviously change, Syracuse probably falls around 5.3 wins if you line the Colgate game in double digits.
Is that big enough to bet? Not in my humble opinion. But, if you trust your power ratings implicitly and feel like you have an edge, you can find teams that you’ll want to bet because of the vig or because you have a strong enough read.
As I get my college football power ratings done, I’ll have some season win total bets and some additional thoughts on the teams and the odds that are out there. For now, even if you don’t want to bet these numbers or don’t feel comfortable tying your money up, you have a great frame of reference for the power ratings process and for seeing if you are in line with the market based on your projected spreads and win total numbers.
