Last Updated: 2017-11-10
As we make our way into the last month of the College Football regular season, plays based upon pure Power Ratings are now harder to come by than they were at the start of the season. Situational capping becomes much more important, as the market continues to adjust and tighten to results and trends that have emerged. This doesn’t mean that there still isn’t value to be found from a numbers perspective, however, because with market reactions come over-reactions and within these over-reactions we can continue to find value on a weekly basis from a Power Ratings perspective. Last week we did just that, going 2-1 on our plays of the week and bringing our season record to 16-14, which isn’t bad at all, considering these are based upon numerical value alone. Hopefully, in adding your own situational capping to the equation, your record is even better in using these plays as a basis to begin a handicap. But now it’s on the week 11 to see where our Bang the Book Power Ratings find value in the market this week.
Stanford vs. Washington
Off shore opener: Stanford 7 -110
Off-shore Consensus Line: Stanford 6 -110
Bang the Book’s Power Rating line: Stanford 1.5
It’s no secret that Stanford has had a couple of down weeks, and after their loss last week to Washington State and a subsequent 2 point downward Power Rating adjustment, we still think this number is seriously inflated. Opening at a full touchdown at Bookmaker, we’ve seen this number come down off of the key of 7 and down to 6, all while the public continues to pound Washington at a consensus rate of 72% off-shore. This is a highly significant move and most assuredly is the work of professional bettors that has driven this number down off of 7, in line with our predicted spread. As a write this on Friday morning, Washington is currently getting steamed a bit off-shore, resulting in some 6.5’s at Bovada and Heritage, while some of the 6’s out there at shops such as BetOnline, Youwager, 5Dimes, and Pinnacle are now juiced on the Washington side. It is now gameday though and this was anticipated in considering the huge consensus on Washington. All-the-more reason to wait this one out and see what kind of number we can get by game-time on the Cardinal.
Duke @ Army
Off shore opener: Duke -1.5 -110
Off-shore Consensus Line: Duke -3 -110
Bang the Book’s Power Rating line: Duke -6
Fresh off of a bye, the Duke Blue Devils opened as a 1.5-point favorite at Army and according to our number it was surely a bit short. The market has been in-agreement thus far, and with 64% of the action on the Blue Devils, this number was driven up onto the primary key of 3. The move onto a key number would suggest that this action isn’t all public, and some sharp money would have to be present for this significant of a move. At 3, however, many off-shore shops have this number juiced on the Army side, suggestive of a hesitancy to make the full move to 3 at some of the sharper shops or potentially some sharp opposition to the public at 3 on the home dog. While Bovada and 5Dimes are a few of the only books to have made the full move to 3 -110, Pinnacle is showing the least amount of increased juice on Army at 3 among the sharper books at -3 -102, +3 -110, revealing a bit of a lean towards Duke among those books that have upped the juice on Army. Anything under 3 would be ideal on Duke and the soft 3’s out there would suggest its possible we see 2.5’s again, but I’m not sure it happens with 64% of the action in support of the Blue Devils. I say you lay the 3 at the cheap price while you can get it just in case the last public action drives this up to a solid 3 across the board or even higher.
Colorado vs. USC
Off shore opener: Colorado 12.5 -102
Off-shore Consensus Line: Colorado 12.5 -110
Bang the Book’s Power Rating line: Colorado 7.5
Even after getting the cover last week with a 49-35 victory over Arizona at home, USC was adjusted downward a point in our Power Rankings, as the market moved on the Wildcats from open to close. Here we see the line as a bit inflated on the Trojans, as they travel to Boulder as a 12.5-point favorite. The market has been in-agreement, as we’ve seen what I like to call Reverse Juice Movement as well as some Reverse Line Movement on the Buffaloes. Opening at 12.5 -102 at Bookmaker, 70 percent of the off-shore action has been on the Trojans thus far, and yet we’ve seen the juice move from -102 to -110 at Bookmaker. Pinnacle opened this number 13.5 on the high side of the market, and was bet down to 12.5, through the secondary key against consensus on USC. Currently, the market sits at 12.5 almost unanimously, except for Bovada who is at 13.5 -115 on Colorado, BetOnline (13 -110), and the Greek (13 -110), to name a few of the prominent outliers. It’s certainly worth holding steady and see what pops by kick, when the public really gets involved, as a 14 would be ideal, but even getting a hook on the 13.5 would be enough to know that professionals have bet that number.
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