College Football Pick of the Week – Week 15

Last Updated: 2017-12-07

With just one game on the schedule this week, it’s pretty obvious we’ll be looking at the Army vs. Navy game, where the Midshipmen are favored by 2.5 (-120) or by 3 (even). The total on the game has been bet down to 46 after opening 51.

This will be the last regular season game we look at this season, but will have write-ups on each and every bowl game, with either a side or total. Entering this game, we have a combined 26-18-1 record, so obviously would like to win this one to finish the regular season at 60%, which sounds better than 57.7% if we end 26-19-1.

While the wise guys hammered the total down, there hasn’t been quite as much movement on the side, as Navy opened 3 at most places. Most people are familiar with Navy’s domination of the series until Army pulled off the win last year as 6-point underdogs.

The Cadets are 8-3 on the season and even last week’s loss can be forgiven as they really had nothing to play for and were likely looking ahead to this one, which is for the Commander-in-Chiefs Trophy, as both teams defeated Air Force.

Offensively, the teams are mirror images of each other, as Army averages 31.2 points per game and Navy averages 30.4, as Army averages 368.1 rushing yards and Navy 347.5. Navy is a bit better throwing the ball, gaining 91 yards per game to Army’s 30.

On defense, Army allows 21.6 points and Navy allows 29.2, with both teams allowing fewer than 160 rushing yards per game, but Navy allowing more through the air, which shouldn’t be much of a factor in this game.

But the one difference is in the quality of opposition, where Navy has a huge advantage. Army’s 31.2 points per game came against who allow 31.7, while Navy’s foes allowed an average of 29.2. Navy’s opponents scored an average of 34.1 points per game, so the defense was actually 4.9 points better than average, while Army was +3.5.

In rushing, both teams were +.8 in yards per attempt above their opponents average allowed, but Army was a -.5 on defense and Navy is a +.5. In a game that figures to see a lot of rushing attempts, that could be pretty significant, especially when you consider Navy played tougher foes in terms of strength of schedule.

So will be on the side of the Midshipmen in this one and will use the -3 points at even money and look for Navy to return to their winning ways in this series.

$60 in FREE Premium Picks

Guaranteed Winners ATS?

Get $60 in FREE premium member picks from Doc’s Sports Service, one of the most trusted names in handicapping since 1971! No salesmen – No obligation

Sign Up & Bet Now

Leave a Reply

College Football Bowl Line Report December 11

College Football Bowl Line Report December 11

In lieu of doing an Opening Line Report for the bowl season, since lines have already been posted for about ...
Read More
las vegas bowl free pick

Las Vegas Bowl Prediction: Oregon vs. Boise State

We'll begin our look at the bowl games with one of the most interesting games from a betting perspective, the ...
Read More
cfb bowl games betting tips

Betting College Football Bowl Games

Betting bowl games takes a bit of a different approach than betting the regular season and there isn't really any ...
Read More
College Football Pick of the Week - Week 15

College Football Pick of the Week – Week 15

With just one game on the schedule this week, it's pretty obvious we'll be looking at the Army vs. Navy ...
Read More
Derwin James To Skip Independence Bowl And Enter NFL Draft

Derwin James To Skip Independence Bowl And Enter NFL Draft

The Florida State Seminoles had to win their final three games just to earn a bowl bid for the 2017 ...
Read More