College Football Pick of the Week – Week 15

Last Updated: 2017-12-07

With just one game on the schedule this week, it’s pretty obvious we’ll be looking at the Army vs. Navy game, where the Midshipmen are favored by 2.5 (-120) or by 3 (even). The total on the game has been bet down to 46 after opening 51.

This will be the last regular season game we look at this season, but will have write-ups on each and every bowl game, with either a side or total. Entering this game, we have a combined 26-18-1 record, so obviously would like to win this one to finish the regular season at 60%, which sounds better than 57.7% if we end 26-19-1.

While the wise guys hammered the total down, there hasn’t been quite as much movement on the side, as Navy opened 3 at most places. Most people are familiar with Navy’s domination of the series until Army pulled off the win last year as 6-point underdogs.

The Cadets are 8-3 on the season and even last week’s loss can be forgiven as they really had nothing to play for and were likely looking ahead to this one, which is for the Commander-in-Chiefs Trophy, as both teams defeated Air Force.

Offensively, the teams are mirror images of each other, as Army averages 31.2 points per game and Navy averages 30.4, as Army averages 368.1 rushing yards and Navy 347.5. Navy is a bit better throwing the ball, gaining 91 yards per game to Army’s 30.

On defense, Army allows 21.6 points and Navy allows 29.2, with both teams allowing fewer than 160 rushing yards per game, but Navy allowing more through the air, which shouldn’t be much of a factor in this game.

But the one difference is in the quality of opposition, where Navy has a huge advantage. Army’s 31.2 points per game came against who allow 31.7, while Navy’s foes allowed an average of 29.2. Navy’s opponents scored an average of 34.1 points per game, so the defense was actually 4.9 points better than average, while Army was +3.5.

In rushing, both teams were +.8 in yards per attempt above their opponents average allowed, but Army was a -.5 on defense and Navy is a +.5. In a game that figures to see a lot of rushing attempts, that could be pretty significant, especially when you consider Navy played tougher foes in terms of strength of schedule.

So will be on the side of the Midshipmen in this one and will use the -3 points at even money and look for Navy to return to their winning ways in this series.

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