College Football Pick: San Diego State vs. Air Force
- Updated: October 12, 2011
NCAA Football Betting Favorite: Air Force -6
Brady Hoke turned around the San Diego State Aztecs program in his short time with the team, but it seems the Aztecs can’t quite find the spark without him at the helm this year. Air Force is the type of team that is tough to beat every year because of their offensive style and solid fundamental play on both sides of the ball. Both of these teams were soundly defeated last week. Which team can get back on track in this one?
Ronnie Hillman and Ryan Lindley give the Aztecs two top notch players in the backfield at all times. The NFL scouts are very high on both players, but the Aztecs offense just hasn’t gotten going the way it did last season so far in 2011. The single biggest issue to this point has been the poor play by the team’s wide receivers. San Diego State lost two very talented receivers from last year’s squad. The group of receivers this year has racked up far too many dropped passes, which has really cost the team. Lindley has ten touchdowns, but he is completing a miserable 48% of his passes. Hillman is averaging 5.6 yards per carry, but he has struggled to hold onto the football in some key situations this year.
The Aztecs defense has been horrible against the run this year, which is a little bit surprising considering their success against the run last season. The Aztecs front four is getting dominated on the line consistently this year. While the team did beat Army earlier this year, Army’s option offense gained 403 yards on the ground in that game.
Air Force ranks second in the nation in rushing yards per game. The Falcons racked up the yardage last weekend against Notre Dame, but two turnovers really slowed down the offense. Tim Jefferson knows this offense extremely well and he is definitely a good guy to have under center. The team rotates a number of running backs into the game, but Asher Clark is their primary running back. This offense has attempted just 83 passes in five games, so they clearly want to keep it on the ground.
The Falcons defense has a similar problem as San Diego State’s does; they simply cannot stop the run. Air Force is second to last in run defense, and they allow 235 rushing yards per contest. The front four is extremely undersized, and that has been a real issue for them the last couple years. The Falcons are solid in the secondary thanks to some veteran leadership.
Keep a close eye on the turnover battle in this game. The team that takes care of the ball should win this matchup. Air Force has the better running game, and I think that will help them to a win and cover here.
Free College Football Pick: Air Force -6
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